Healthcare as a Target for Violence: From Conflicts to Pandemics
In: Health security, Band 19, Heft 5, S. 570-571
ISSN: 2326-5108
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In: Health security, Band 19, Heft 5, S. 570-571
ISSN: 2326-5108
SSRN
Artemisinin combination therapies are considered the mainstay of malaria treatment, but pediatric-friendly formulations for the treatment of infants are scarce. We sought to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a new dispersible-tablet formulation of dihydroartemisinin/piperaquine phosphate (DHA/PQP) in comparison to the marketed tablet (Eurartesim) in the treatment of infants with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Reported here are the results of a large phase II, randomized, open-label, multicenter trial conducted in African infants (6 to 12 months of age) from Mozambique, Burkina Faso, The Gambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Tanzania. Primary efficacy endpoint was the PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) at day 28. Analysis was performed for the intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP) populations. A total of 201 patients received the dispersible-tablet formulation, and 99 received the conventional one administered as crushed tablets. At day 28, the PCR-corrected ACPRs were 86.9% (ITT) and 98.3% (PP) in the dispersible-tablet group and 84.9% (ITT) and 100% (PP) in the crushed-tablet group. At day 42, these values were 85.9% (ITT) and 96.5% (PP) in the dispersible-tablet group and 82.8% (ITT) and 96.4% (PP) in the crushed-tablet group. The comparison between survival curves for time to new infections showed no statistically significant differences (P = 0.409). The safety and tolerability profile for the two groups was similar in terms of type and frequency of adverse events and was consistent with that expected in African infants with malaria. A standard 3-day treatment with the new dispersible DHA/PQP formulation is as efficacious as the currently used tablet in African infants and has a comparable safety profile. ; Sin financiación ; 4.715 JCR (2018) Q1, 28/133 Microbiology, 27/267 Pharmacology & Pharmacy ; 2.096 SJR (2018) Q1, 29/298 Infectious Diseases, 11/268 Pharmacology (medical), 21/335 Pharmacology ; No data IDR 2018 ; UEM
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Artemisinin combination therapies are considered the mainstay of malaria treatment, but pediatric-friendly formulations for the treatment of infants are scarce. We sought to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a new dispersible-tablet formulation of dihydroartemisinin/piperaquine phosphate (DHA/PQP) in comparison to the marketed tablet (Eurartesim) in the treatment of infants with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Reported here are the results of a large phase II, randomized, open-label, multicenter trial conducted in African infants (6 to 12 months of age) from Mozambique, Burkina Faso, The Gambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Tanzania. Primary efficacy endpoint was the PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) at day 28. Analysis was performed for the intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP) populations. A total of 201 patients received the dispersible-tablet formulation, and 99 received the conventional one administered as crushed tablets. At day 28, the PCR-corrected ACPRs were 86.9% (ITT) and 98.3% (PP) in the dispersible-tablet group and 84.9% (ITT) and 100% (PP) in the crushed-tablet group. At day 42, these values were 85.9% (ITT) and 96.5% (PP) in the dispersible-tablet group and 82.8% (ITT) and 96.4% (PP) in the crushed-tablet group. The comparison between survival curves for time to new infections showed no statistically significant differences (P = 0.409). The safety and tolerability profile for the two groups was similar in terms of type and frequency of adverse events and was consistent with that expected in African infants with malaria. A standard 3-day treatment with the new dispersible DHA/PQP formulation is as efficacious as the currently used tablet in African infants and has a comparable safety profile. (This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT01992900.)
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Artemisinin combination therapies are considered the mainstay of malaria treatment, but pediatric-friendly formulations for the treatment of infants are scarce. We sought to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a new dispersible-tablet formulation of dihydroartemisinin/piperaquine phosphate (DHA/PQP) in comparison to the marketed tablet (Eurartesim) in the treatment of infants with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Reported here are the results of a large phase II, randomized, open-label, multicenter trial conducted in African infants (6 to 12 months of age) from Mozambique, Burkina Faso, The Gambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Tanzania. Primary efficacy endpoint was the PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) at day 28. Analysis was performed for the intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP) populations. A total of 201 patients received the dispersible-tablet formulation, and 99 received the conventional one administered as crushed tablets. At day 28, the PCR-corrected ACPRs were 86.9% (ITT) and 98.3% (PP) in the dispersible-tablet group and 84.9% (ITT) and 100% (PP) in the crushed-tablet group. At day 42, these values were 85.9% (ITT) and 96.5% (PP) in the dispersible-tablet group and 82.8% (ITT) and 96.4% (PP) in the crushed-tablet group. The comparison between survival curves for time to new infections showed no statistically significant differences (P = 0.409). The safety and tolerability profile for the two groups was similar in terms of type and frequency of adverse events and was consistent with that expected in African infants with malaria. A standard 3-day treatment with the new dispersible DHA/PQP formulation is as efficacious as the currently used tablet in African infants and has a comparable safety profile. (This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT01992900.).
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BACKGROUND: Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus are the most common viruses associated with acute lower respiratory infections in young children (<5 years) and older people (≥65 years). A global report of the monthly activity of these viruses is needed to inform public health strategies and programmes for their control. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, we compiled data from a systematic literature review of studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2017; online datasets; and unpublished research data. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported laboratory-confirmed incidence data of human infection of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, or metapneumovirus, or a combination of these, for at least 12 consecutive months (or 52 weeks equivalent); stable testing practice throughout all years reported; virus results among residents in well-defined geographical locations; and aggregated virus results at least on a monthly basis. Data were extracted through a three-stage process, from which we calculated monthly annual average percentage (AAP) as the relative strength of virus activity. We defined duration of epidemics as the minimum number of months to account for 75% of annual positive samples, with each component month defined as an epidemic month. Furthermore, we modelled monthly AAP of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus using site-specific temperature and relative humidity for the prediction of local average epidemic months. We also predicted global epidemic months of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus on a 5° by 5° grid. The systematic review in this study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018091628. FINDINGS: We initally identified 37 335 eligible studies. Of 21 065 studies remaining after exclusion of duplicates, 1081 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 185 were identified as eligible. We included 246 sites for influenza virus, 183 sites for respiratory syncytial virus, 83 sites for parainfluenza virus, and 65 sites for metapneumovirus. Influenza virus had clear seasonal epidemics in winter months in most temperate sites but timing of epidemics was more variable and less seasonal with decreasing distance from the equator. Unlike influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus had clear seasonal epidemics in both temperate and tropical regions, starting in late summer months in the tropics of each hemisphere, reaching most temperate sites in winter months. In most temperate sites, influenza virus epidemics occurred later than respiratory syncytial virus (by 0·3 months [95% CI -0·3 to 0·9]) while no clear temporal order was observed in the tropics. Parainfluenza virus epidemics were found mostly in spring and early summer months in each hemisphere. Metapneumovirus epidemics occurred in late winter and spring in most temperate sites but the timing of epidemics was more diverse in the tropics. Influenza virus epidemics had shorter duration (3·8 months [3·6 to 4·0]) in temperate sites and longer duration (5·2 months [4·9 to 5·5]) in the tropics. Duration of epidemics was similar across all sites for respiratory syncytial virus (4·6 months [4·3 to 4·8]), as it was for metapneumovirus (4·8 months [4·4 to 5·1]). By comparison, parainfluenza virus had longer duration of epidemics (6·3 months [6·0 to 6·7]). Our model had good predictability in the average epidemic months of influenza virus in temperate regions and respiratory syncytial virus in both temperate and tropical regions. Through leave-one-out cross validation, the overall prediction error in the onset of epidemics was within 1 month (influenza virus -0·2 months [-0·6 to 0·1]; respiratory syncytial virus 0·1 months [-0·2 to 0·4]). INTERPRETATION: This study is the first to provide global representations of month-by-month activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus. Our model is helpful in predicting the local onset month of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus epidemics. The seasonality information has important implications for health services planning, the timing of respiratory syncytial virus passive prophylaxis, and the strategy of influenza virus and future respiratory syncytial virus vaccination. FUNDING: European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).
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BACKGROUND: Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus are the most common viruses associated with acute lower respiratory infections in young children (<5 years) and older people (≥65 years). A global report of the monthly activity of these viruses is needed to inform public health strategies and programmes for their control. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, we compiled data from a systematic literature review of studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2017; online datasets; and unpublished research data. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported laboratory-confirmed incidence data of human infection of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, or metapneumovirus, or a combination of these, for at least 12 consecutive months (or 52 weeks equivalent); stable testing practice throughout all years reported; virus results among residents in well-defined geographical locations; and aggregated virus results at least on a monthly basis. Data were extracted through a three-stage process, from which we calculated monthly annual average percentage (AAP) as the relative strength of virus activity. We defined duration of epidemics as the minimum number of months to account for 75% of annual positive samples, with each component month defined as an epidemic month. Furthermore, we modelled monthly AAP of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus using site-specific temperature and relative humidity for the prediction of local average epidemic months. We also predicted global epidemic months of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus on a 5° by 5° grid. The systematic review in this study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018091628. FINDINGS: We initally identified 37 335 eligible studies. Of 21 065 studies remaining after exclusion of duplicates, 1081 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 185 were identified as eligible. We included 246 sites for influenza virus, 183 sites for respiratory syncytial virus, 83 sites for parainfluenza virus, and 65 sites for metapneumovirus. Influenza virus had clear seasonal epidemics in winter months in most temperate sites but timing of epidemics was more variable and less seasonal with decreasing distance from the equator. Unlike influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus had clear seasonal epidemics in both temperate and tropical regions, starting in late summer months in the tropics of each hemisphere, reaching most temperate sites in winter months. In most temperate sites, influenza virus epidemics occurred later than respiratory syncytial virus (by 0·3 months [95% CI -0·3 to 0·9]) while no clear temporal order was observed in the tropics. Parainfluenza virus epidemics were found mostly in spring and early summer months in each hemisphere. Metapneumovirus epidemics occurred in late winter and spring in most temperate sites but the timing of epidemics was more diverse in the tropics. Influenza virus epidemics had shorter duration (3·8 months [3·6 to 4·0]) in temperate sites and longer duration (5·2 months [4·9 to 5·5]) in the tropics. Duration of epidemics was similar across all sites for respiratory syncytial virus (4·6 months [4·3 to 4·8]), as it was for metapneumovirus (4·8 months [4·4 to 5·1]). By comparison, parainfluenza virus had longer duration of epidemics (6·3 months [6·0 to 6·7]). Our model had good predictability in the average epidemic months of influenza virus in temperate regions and respiratory syncytial virus in both temperate and tropical regions. Through leave-one-out cross validation, the overall prediction error in the onset of epidemics was within 1 month (influenza virus -0·2 months [-0·6 to 0·1]; respiratory syncytial virus 0·1 months [-0·2 to 0·4]). INTERPRETATION: This study is the first to provide global representations of month-by-month activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus. Our model is helpful in predicting the local onset month of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus epidemics. The seasonality information has important implications for health services planning, the timing of respiratory syncytial virus passive prophylaxis, and the strategy of influenza virus and future respiratory syncytial virus vaccination. FUNDING: European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).
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Background. Malaria "hotspots" have been proposed as potential intervention units for targeted malaria elimination. Little is known about hotspot formation and stability in settings outside sub-Saharan Africa. Methods. Clustering of Plasmodium infections at the household and hotspot level was assessed over 2 years in 3 villages in eastern Cambodia. Social and spatial autocorrelation statistics were calculated to assess clustering of malaria risk, and logistic regression was used to assess the effect of living in a malaria hotspot compared to living in a malaria-positive household in the first year of the study on risk of malaria infection in the second year. Results. The crude prevalence of Plasmodium infection was 8.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. Living in a hotspot in 2016 did not predict Plasmodium risk at the individual or household level in 2017 overall, but living in a Plasmodium-positive household in 2016 strongly predicted living in a Plasmodium-positive household in 2017 (Risk Ratio, 5.00 [95% confidence interval, 2.09-11.96], P < .0001). There was no consistent evidence that malaria risk clustered in groups of socially connected individuals from different households. Conclusions. Malaria risk clustered more clearly in households than in hotspots over 2 years. Household-based strategies should be prioritized in malaria elimination programs in this region. ; This work was supported by the Department of Economy, Science and Innovation of the Flemish government. M.B.T. was supported by a 2014 Erasmus Mundus Joint Doctorate Fellowship (specific grant agreement 2014-0681), and by a Les Amis des Instituts Pasteur a Bruxelles 2017 research fellowship.
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BACKGROUND: Current World Health Organization recommendations for the management of malaria include the need for a parasitological confirmation prior to triggering appropriate treatment. The use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria has contributed to a better infection recognition and a more targeted treatment. Nevertheless, low-density infections and parasites that fail to produce HRP2 can cause false-negative RDT results. Microscopy has traditionally been the methodology most commonly used to quantify malaria and characterize the infecting species, but the wider use of this technique remains challenging, as it requires trained personnel and processing capacity. OBJECTIVE: In this study, the feasibility of an on-line system for remote malaria species identification and differentiation has been investigated by crowdsourcing the analysis of digitalized infected thin blood smears by non-expert observers using a mobile app. METHODS: An on-line videogame in which players learned how to differentiate the young trophozoite stage of the five Plasmodium species has been designed. Images were digitalized with a smartphone camera adapted to the ocular of a conventional light microscope. Images from infected red blood cells were cropped and puzzled into an on-line game. During the game, players had to decide the malaria species (Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium malariae, Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium knowlesi) of the infected cells that were shown in the screen. After 2 months, each player's decisions were analysed individually and collectively. RESULTS: On-line volunteers playing the game made more than 500,000 assessments for species differentiation. Statistically, when the choice of several players was combined (n > 25), they were able to significantly discriminate Plasmodium species, reaching a level of accuracy of 99% for all species combinations, except for P. knowlesi (80%). Non-expert decisions on which Plasmodium species was shown in the screen were made in less than 3 s. CONCLUSION: These findings show that it is possible to train malaria-naïve non-experts to identify and differentiate malaria species in digitalized thin blood samples. Although the accuracy of a single player is not perfect, the combination of the responses of multiple casual gamers can achieve an accuracy that is within the range of the diagnostic accuracy made by a trained microscopist. ; M.L. held a postdoctoral Fellowship of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (FPDI-2013-16409) and holds a grant from the Spanish Society of Hematology and Hemotherapy. This work was supported by the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (COOP-XVII-02), Spain's Science, Innovation & Universities Ministry (TEC2015-66978-R), Madrid Regional Government (TOPUS S2013/MIT-3024), the CDTI NEOTEC SNEO-20171197 grant from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, the European Regional Development Funds, Amazon Web Services, Fundación Renta Corporación and Ashoka. ISGlobal is a member of the CERCA Programme, Generalitat de Catalunya. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ; Sí
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We aimed to assess the duration of nasopharyngeal severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA persistence in adults self-confined at home after acute infection; and to identify the associations of SARS-CoV-2 persistence with respiratory virus co-detection and infection transmission. A cross-sectional intra-household study was conducted in metropolitan Barcelona (Spain) during the time period of April to June 2020. Every adult who was the first family member reported as SARS-CoV-2-positive by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) as well as their household child contacts had nasopharyngeal swabs tested by a targeted SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and a multiplex viral respiratory panel after a 15 day minimum time lag. Four-hundred and four households (404 adults and 708 children) were enrolled. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 137 (33.9%) adults and 84 (11.9%) children. Rhinovirus/Enterovirus (RV/EV) was commonly found (83.3%) in co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 in adults. The mean duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA presence in adults' nasopharynx was 52 days (range 26-83 days). The persistence of SARS-CoV-2 was significantly associated with RV/EV co-infection (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.31; 95% CI 2.57-33.80) and SARS-CoV-2 detection in child contacts (aOR 2.08; 95% CI 1.24-3.51). Prolonged nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA persistence beyond the acute infection phase was frequent in adults quarantined at home during the first epidemic wave; which was associated with RV/EV co-infection and could enhance intra-household infection transmission. ; Funding: This work was supported by the Kids Corona Project, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu, Barcelona,which received donations from Stavros Niarchos Foundation and Banco de Santander. ISGlobal receives support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the "Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019–2023" Program (CEX2018-000806-S), and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. CISM is supported by the Government of Mozambique and the Spanish Agency for International Development (AECID)
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INTRODUCTION: Clinically diagnosed pneumonia in children is a leading cause of paediatric hospitalisation and mortality. The aetiology is usually bacterial or viral, but malaria can cause a syndrome indistinguishable from clinical pneumonia. There is no method with high sensitivity to detect a bacterial infection in these patients and, as result, antibiotics are frequently overprescribed. Conversely, unrecognised concomitant bacterial infection in patients with malarial infections occur with omission of antibiotic therapy from patients with bacterial infections. Previously, we identified two combinations of blood proteins with 96% sensitivity and 86% specificity for detecting bacterial disease. The current project aimed to validate and improve these combinations by evaluating additional biomarkers in paediatric patients with clinical pneumonia. Our goal was to describe combinations of a limited number of proteins with high sensitivity and specificity for bacterial infection to be incorporated in future point-of-care tests. Furthermore, we seek to explore signatures to prognosticate clinical pneumonia. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Patients (n=900) aged 2-59 months presenting with clinical pneumonia at two Gambian hospitals will be enrolled and classified according to criteria for definitive bacterial aetiology (based on microbiological tests and chest radiographs). We will measure proteins at admission using Luminex-based immunoassays in 90 children with definitive and 160 with probable bacterial aetiology, and 160 children classified according to the prognosis of their disease. Previously identified diagnostic signatures will be assessed through accuracy measures. Moreover, we will seek new diagnostic and prognostic signatures through machine learning methods, including support vector machine, penalised regression and classification trees. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained from the Gambia Government/Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia Joint Ethics Committee (protocol 1616) and the institutional review board of Boston University Medical Centre (STUDY00000958). Study results will be disseminated to the staff of the study hospitals, in scientific seminars and meetings, and in publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: H-38462.
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INTRODUCTION: Clinically diagnosed pneumonia in children is a leading cause of paediatric hospitalisation and mortality. The aetiology is usually bacterial or viral, but malaria can cause a syndrome indistinguishable from clinical pneumonia. There is no method with high sensitivity to detect a bacterial infection in these patients and, as result, antibiotics are frequently overprescribed. Conversely, unrecognised concomitant bacterial infection in patients with malarial infections occur with omission of antibiotic therapy from patients with bacterial infections. Previously, we identified two combinations of blood proteins with 96% sensitivity and 86% specificity for detecting bacterial disease. The current project aimed to validate and improve these combinations by evaluating additional biomarkers in paediatric patients with clinical pneumonia. Our goal was to describe combinations of a limited number of proteins with high sensitivity and specificity for bacterial infection to be incorporated in future point-of-care tests. Furthermore, we seek to explore signatures to prognosticate clinical pneumonia. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Patients (n=900) aged 2–59 months presenting with clinical pneumonia at two Gambian hospitals will be enrolled and classified according to criteria for definitive bacterial aetiology (based on microbiological tests and chest radiographs). We will measure proteins at admission using Luminex-based immunoassays in 90 children with definitive and 160 with probable bacterial aetiology, and 160 children classified according to the prognosis of their disease. Previously identified diagnostic signatures will be assessed through accuracy measures. Moreover, we will seek new diagnostic and prognostic signatures through machine learning methods, including support vector machine, penalised regression and classification trees. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained from the Gambia Government/Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia Joint Ethics Committee (protocol 1616) and the ...
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Despite their clear lesser vulnerability to COVID-19, the extent by which children are susceptible to getting infected by SARS-CoV-2 and their capacity to transmit the infection to other people remains inadequately characterized. We aimed to evaluate the role of school reopening and the preventive strategies in place at schools in terms of overall risk for children and community transmission, by comparing transmission rates in children as detected by a COVID-19 surveillance platform in place in Catalonian Schools to the incidence at the community level. ; : Funding The components of the analysis drawn from the different KIDS Corona platform have been funded by Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF), Banco Santander and other private donors of Kidscorona. We also acknowledge funding from La Caixa Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; and funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. This work has been also partially funded by the European Commission - DG Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746. ISGlobal receives support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the "Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019-2023" Program (CEX2018-000806-S), and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. CISM is supported by the Government of Mozambique and the Spanish Agency for International Development (AECID). NB is supported by an FPU predoctoral fellowship from the Spanish Ministry of Universities (FPU18/04260). BB is a Beatriu de Pino´s postdoctoral fellow granted by the Government of Catalonia's Secretariat for Universities and Research, and by Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions COFUND Programme (BP3, 801370). Role of the funding source The funders had no role in the interpretation of the data or in the writing up of the manuscript. ; Postprint (published version)
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In: Li , Y , Reeves , R M , Wang , X , Bassat , Q , Brooks , W A , Cohen , C , Moore , D P , Nunes , M , Rath , B , Campbell , H , Nair , H , Acacio , S , RSV Global Epidemiology Network , Alonso , W J , Antonio , M , Ayora Talavera , G , Badarch , D , Baillie , V L , Barrera-Badillo , G , Bigogo , G , Broor , S , Bruden , D , Buchy , P , Byass , P , Chipeta , J , Clara , W , Dang , D-A , de Freitas Lázaro Emediato , C C , de Jong , M , Díaz-Quiñonez , J A , Do , L A H , Fasce , R A , Feng , L , Ferson , M J , Gentile , A , Gessner , B D , Goswami , D , Goyet , S , Grijalva , C G , Halasa , N , Hellferscee , O , Hessong , D , Homaira , N , Jara , J , Kahn , K , Khuri-Bulos , N , Kotloff , K L , Lanata , C F , Lopez , O , Lopez Bolaños , M R , de Jong , M , Yoshida , L-M , Zar , H J & RESCEU investigators 2019 , ' Global patterns in monthly activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus: a systematic analysis ' , The Lancet Global Health , vol. 7 , no. 8 , pp. e1031-e1045 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30264-5
Background: Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus are the most common viruses associated with acute lower respiratory infections in young children (<5 years) and older people (≥65 years). A global report of the monthly activity of these viruses is needed to inform public health strategies and programmes for their control. Methods: In this systematic analysis, we compiled data from a systematic literature review of studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2017; online datasets; and unpublished research data. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported laboratory-confirmed incidence data of human infection of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, or metapneumovirus, or a combination of these, for at least 12 consecutive months (or 52 weeks equivalent); stable testing practice throughout all years reported; virus results among residents in well-defined geographical locations; and aggregated virus results at least on a monthly basis. Data were extracted through a three-stage process, from which we calculated monthly annual average percentage (AAP) as the relative strength of virus activity. We defined duration of epidemics as the minimum number of months to account for 75% of annual positive samples, with each component month defined as an epidemic month. Furthermore, we modelled monthly AAP of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus using site-specific temperature and relative humidity for the prediction of local average epidemic months. We also predicted global epidemic months of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus on a 5° by 5° grid. The systematic review in this study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018091628. Findings: We initally identified 37 335 eligible studies. Of 21 065 studies remaining after exclusion of duplicates, 1081 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 185 were identified as eligible. We included 246 sites for influenza virus, 183 sites for respiratory syncytial virus, 83 sites for parainfluenza virus, and 65 sites for metapneumovirus. Influenza virus had clear seasonal epidemics in winter months in most temperate sites but timing of epidemics was more variable and less seasonal with decreasing distance from the equator. Unlike influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus had clear seasonal epidemics in both temperate and tropical regions, starting in late summer months in the tropics of each hemisphere, reaching most temperate sites in winter months. In most temperate sites, influenza virus epidemics occurred later than respiratory syncytial virus (by 0·3 months [95% CI −0·3 to 0·9]) while no clear temporal order was observed in the tropics. Parainfluenza virus epidemics were found mostly in spring and early summer months in each hemisphere. Metapneumovirus epidemics occurred in late winter and spring in most temperate sites but the timing of epidemics was more diverse in the tropics. Influenza virus epidemics had shorter duration (3·8 months [3·6 to 4·0]) in temperate sites and longer duration (5·2 months [4·9 to 5·5]) in the tropics. Duration of epidemics was similar across all sites for respiratory syncytial virus (4·6 months [4·3 to 4·8]), as it was for metapneumovirus (4·8 months [4·4 to 5·1]). By comparison, parainfluenza virus had longer duration of epidemics (6·3 months [6·0 to 6·7]). Our model had good predictability in the average epidemic months of influenza virus in temperate regions and respiratory syncytial virus in both temperate and tropical regions. Through leave-one-out cross validation, the overall prediction error in the onset of epidemics was within 1 month (influenza virus −0·2 months [−0·6 to 0·1]; respiratory syncytial virus 0·1 months [−0·2 to 0·4]). Interpretation: This study is the first to provide global representations of month-by-month activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus. Our model is helpful in predicting the local onset month of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus epidemics. The seasonality information has important implications for health services planning, the timing of respiratory syncytial virus passive prophylaxis, and the strategy of influenza virus and future respiratory syncytial virus vaccination. Funding: European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).
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In: THELANCET-D-22-00285
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