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This paper explores the relative role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in affecting the output level and inflation rate in a low-income country vulnerable to various economic shocks. The study uses Bangladesh data, and following Cover et al (2006), employs a modification of the Blanchard-Quah (BQ) approach, in which the two shocks are allowed to be correlated. Strong evidence is found for the hypothesis that aggregate demand and supply shocks are interrelated in Bangladesh. For the case in which causality is assumed to be running from demand to supply shocks, it was found that an independent supply shock plays significant role for fluctuations in inflation, which was absent in the standard BQ model. The results suggest that a tightening of monetary policy may lead to an adverse effect on the long-run growth potential and some supply-side policies may be required to supplement contractionary monetary policy in combating inflation in Bangladesh.

Developed nations, especially Nordic countries such as Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland allocate a sizeable portion of their budget for social welfare. On the contrary, developing counties' allocation for social welfare has been negligible. The question is: can state intervention through social welfare provisions ensure sustained economic growth? In other words, do social expenditures promote economic growth? This study seeks to answer this question by establishing links between social expenditures and economic growth in Australia and New Zealand, and draw lessons for fast developing ASEAN economies as they aspire to be developed nations soon. Using annual data from 1980 to 2012, we deploy cointegration and error correction methods for establishing long-run relationship between social expenditures and economic growth. We conduct Granger causality tests for testing short-term direction of causality among the variables. For Australia, economic growth is found to have three main determinants- education, health and social expenditures. For New Zealand, health and social expenditures have been found as the main determinants of growth. However, no long-run relationship could be established among the variables when we included budget deficit in our model. The Granger causality tests indicate that one way causality running from economic growth to health expenditure, and social expenditure to economic growth in Australia. In case of New Zealand, on the other hand, one-way causality runs from education expenditure to economic growth, health expenditure to education expenditure, economic growth to health expenditure, and education expenditure to budget deficit. Social welfare expenditures also Granger cause economic growth. Our findings suggest that social expenditures promoted growth in Australia and New Zealand. The fast developing economies such as Singapore and Malaysia, which aim to achieve the developed country status by 2020 and usually do not allocate sizeable portion of their budget for social welfare, should adopt more 'generous' social policies for the sake of a balanced development.

This study makes a brief assessment of the consequences of economic reforms that included a series of liberalization measures on Bangladesh's growth process by analyzing the 1974-2007 data with the help of cointegration, error correction, and Granger causality tests. The results suggest that long-run economic growth in Bangladesh is largely explained by investments in both physical and human capital, trade openness, and financial as well as capital account liberalization. While the causality runs in both ways between capital account liberalization and economic growth, it runs only in one direction from physical capital and financial liberalization to economic growth in the short-run. Interestingly, growth is not affected by trade openness in the short-run. While trade liberalization and capital account liberalization have had significant positive impacts on economic growth in the long-run, the effects of financial liberalization were found to be significantly negative. This emphasizes the need for ensuring real sector development as a prerequisite for the success of financial liberalization.

This paper is in closed access. ; © 2017 Elsevier Inc. This paper employs the multivariate version of the unobserved components model to reinvestigate the cyclicality of fiscal policy in eleven OECD countries. The novelty of the multivariate approach lies in its superior ability to disentangle the correlations in cycles from the correlations in slopes of the relevant variables while allowing for those correlations in the model. The results suggest that fiscal policy is mildly counter-cyclical in seven of the eleven countries analyzed which resonates with the standard Keynesian models. However, the slope (growth) of government consumption is found to be positively correlated with real GDP in these economies. There is no evidence of procyclical fiscal policies in any of these eleven industrial countries. The results remain robust when we use subsamples and an alternative fiscal policy variable.

The growth of the financial sector of an economy such as, the stock market is usually found to be highly correlated with the growth of the real sector of an economy. In this study, we make an attempt to investigate whether there is any significant relationship between the stock prices, macroeconomic variables and foreign stock prices in an economy. Using the Malaysian quarterly data from 1991–2010 and the time series techniques such as, cointegration, long run structural modeling, vector error correction, variance decompositions, impulse response functions, and persistence profile approaches, we evidence a significant statistical relationship existing between the Malaysian stock prices, exchange rate and foreign stock prices with the exchange rate being the most leading variable. We also found evidence of negative impact of the Asian Financial Crisis on Malaysian stock prices in the short run. The results appear to be plausible and contain strong policy implications.