Suchergebnisse

Empirical evidence linking monetary aggregates to variables such as inflation and economic growth has weakened over the past two decades. In this study we re‐examine these relationships by creating composite monetary aggregates that switch among existing monetary aggregates, using quarterly data over the sample 1971–99. Overall, composite monetary aggregates appear to be useful in explaining or forecasting short‐run movements in GDP growth and inflation. Also, the most successful composite monetary aggregates produce switch dates that overlap with the introduction of financial innovations. These subsequently prompted the Bank of Canada to revise or introduce new monetary aggregates. JEL Classification: E51, E52, C52, C53 Les agrégats monétaires en tant qu'indicateurs de l'activitééconomique: résultats empiriques. Les résultats empiriques jaugeant les liens entre les agrégats monétaires et des variables telles que l'inflation et la croissance économique montrent que ces liens se sont affaiblis au cours des deux dernières décennies. Ce mémoire examine ces relations en créant des agrégats monétaires composites qui se déplacent entre les agrégats usuels selon certains critères statistiques. L'étude utilise des données trimestrielles pour la période 1971–99. Dans l'ensemble, les agrégats monétaires composites semblent plus utiles pour expliquer ou prévoir les mouvements à court terme dans le niveau de croissance du PIB et de l'inflation. De plus, les agrégats monétaires composites qui ont le plus de succès suggèrent des moments de déplacement qui correspondent à des discontinuités marquant la mise en place d'innovations financières. Celles‐ci ont entraîné la Banque du Canada à reviser les agrégats monétaires usuels ou à en suggérer de nouveaux.

Despite evidence linking high levels of alcohol consumption to ill health, the number of people drinking above the 'sensible' limits is increasing. Clinicians in primary care can influence this trend by appropriate screening and advice. To do this they need to know the recommended sensible limits and also be able to translate commonly reported drinking levels into units of alcohol. A postal survey of 499 general practitioners and 343 practice nurses in Cornwall and South West Devon asked responders to calculate the number of units of alcohol contained in six different drinks and also state what they thought were the current sensible levels of consumption. The response rate was 63%. Less than 40% of responders were able to assess the units of alcohol in five out of the six drinks to within 10%. Over 70% of responders were unable to determine the alcohol content of all six drinks to within 30%. Forty-four per cent of responders now recommend an increased safe level of consumption at 28 units per week for men and 21 units per week for women, against the advice of the Royal Colleges and the BMA but in line with the levels suggested by the Government.