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Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

This paper is a product of the T-FORCES forest monitoring network (Tropical Forests in the Changing Earth System), supported by an ERC Advanced Grant to O.L.P. and by many institutions, NGOs, government agencies and local communities in Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. We are grateful for historical plot data contributed by the Center for Tropical Forest Science (CTFS; two LAM plots and one BEL plot), the Global Ecosystem Monitoring network (GEM; two LAM plots), Institute for Biodiversity and Environmental Research, Universiti Brunei Darussalam (Brunei plots), Kagoshima University (KIS and KIU plots), Forest Department Sarawak (BKO, LAM, MER and GMU plots), Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department (SEP plots), the Tropenbos Kalimantan project (ITCI plots), Project Barito Ulu, supported by Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) (BUL plots), and the STREK project, supported by CIRAD, The Ministry of Forestry of Indonesia, and INHUTANI I (STR plots). We are indebted to a great many individuals who contributed to historical data collection. Contemporary fieldwork was supported by a grant from the ERC (T-FORCES) and from NERC (grants NER/A/S/2000/00532, NE/B503384/1, NE/N012542/1). L.Q. was supported by T-FORCES, CIFOR and NERC NE/P00363X/1. S.L.L. was supported by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship, T-FORCES and a Phillip Leverhulme Prize. O.L.P. is supported by T-FORCES and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award. M.J.P.S. is supported by T-FORCES and NERC NE/N012542/1. L.F.B. was supported by a NERC studentship to the University of Leeds and a RGS-IBG Henrietta Hutton grant. R.H. was supported by a University of Brunei Darussalam Research Fellowship (2011) and a long-term research project RVO 67985939 from the Czech Academy of Sciences. S.L. received additional support from Primate Conservation Inc. M.S. was supported by a Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports grant of the Czech Republic INGO II LG15051. R.R.E.V. was supported by the Netherlands Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical Research (WOTRO, grant No. W76-217). We thank Forest Department Sarawak, Sabah Biodiversity Centre, Sabah Forestry Department, Forest Department Brunei, Institute for Biodiversity and Environmental Research, University of Brunei Darussalam and Indonesia Ministry of Research, Technology, and Higher Education for research permissions. We thank Bako National Park, Lambir Hills National Park, Gunung Mulu National Park, Kuala Belalong Field Study Centre (KBFSC), Glen Reynolds (SEARRP), Danum Valley Conservation Area, Rainforest Discovery Centre Sepilok, Sepilok Laut Reception Centre, Borneo Orangutan Survival Foundation (BOSF), Sungai Wain Protection Forest Management Unit, WWF East Kalimantan and PT. ITCIKU East Kalimantan for logistical support for fieldwork. We thank Timothy Baker, Roel Brienen, Emanuel Gloor, Adriane Esquivel Muelbert and Nicolas Labrière for comments on the manuscript. We thank our deceased colleagues, John Proctor and Suriantata, for their invaluable contributions to both historical work and our wider understanding of tropical forest ecology. ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF