Suchergebnisse

Without congressional action, the Social Security reserve fund will be exhausted by 2035. When that occurs, benefit payments must be cut by one-fifth. To avoid that outcome, Congress must agree on a reform plan that boosts revenues, cuts pensions, or does both. The choice of a reform strategy should depend on voters' support for the goals of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program and evidence about the program's effectiveness in achieving those goals. This article explains the aims of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program, briefly describes how the program attempts to achieve those aims, and considers evidence on whether the goals have been achieved and at what cost. It then considers alternative reforms that address OASI's main problem, namely, the long-term shortfall in program revenues compared with pension commitments. It concludes by identifying the reforms that seem best suited to achieving OASI's core aims while conforming to voter preferences.

Old-age income protection is provided in wealthy democracies by publicly funded defined-benefit pensions. Budgetary challenges have forced policy makers to consider private alternatives to these traditional systems. I consider the shortcomings of private saving arrangements in duplicating the advantages of public pensions. Some shortcomings can be overcome by introducing compulsory elements into private saving plans. Worker contributions into such plans could be mandatory; some or all worker accumulations in the plans could be converted to annuities at retirement; and workers' investment choices could be narrowly circumscribed. These restrictions do not eliminate the biggest weakness of private saving plans. Fluctuations in asset prices make it hard even for well-informed savers to select an affordable saving rate and an investment strategy that will assure decent income in old age. Public pension systems partly insulate workers against economic and financial market risks by sharing those risks broadly across workers, retirees, and taxpayers in multiple generations.

The recent financial crisis and historical record suggest important lessons about the design of national pension systems. First, wide fluctuation in asset returns makes it hard for well-informed savers to select a saving rate or a sensible investment strategy for DC pensions. Workers who follow identical investment strategies but who retire a few years apart can receive DC pensions that are startlingly unequal. Second, it is hard for ordinary workers, as opposed to optimal planners, to make sensible choices about portfolio allocation. Their investment errors mean that actual returns fall short of the theoretical returns that could be earned by a well-informed, disciplined investor.

Résumé Aux États-Unis, le dispositif d'aide sociale en faveur des parents d'âge actif et de leurs enfants a été profondément réformé en 1996. Les pouvoirs publics ont cherché à réduire la dépendance des familles vis-à-vis des prestations d'aide sociale en espèces en mettant fin à l'automaticité des droits et en limitant la durée de versement des prestations. Les réformes engagées aux États-Unis comportent un autre volet. À partir du milieu des années 1980, le gouvernement a amendé diverses lois fiscales et programmes d'aide pour offrir des prestations plus généreuses, notamment en matière d'assurance-maladie et de compléments de revenu, aux familles d'âge actif dont un membre au moins travaille. Associés, ces deux types de réforme ont eu un impact majeur sur le comportement des parents isolés vis-à-vis du travail, sur leurs revenus d'activité et leurs revenus nets. Dans les dix années qui ont suivi 1992, le taux d'emploi des mères isolées a progressé de plus de 20 points de pourcentage et le nombre de familles bénéficiaires de l'aide sociale a fortement chuté. La part des prestations d'aide sociale dans le revenu des mères isolées a diminué, tandis que leurs revenus d'activité et compléments de revenu ont augmenté, ce qui a représenté, au final, une hausse de revenu de 25% en données corrigées de l'inflation. Après 1995, le taux de pauvreté des enfants a enregistré sa première baisse durable depuis le début des années 1970.