Suchergebnisse

The present paper discuss the nature of structural changes in employment to understand jobless growth in Pakistan for the period spanning over 1967-2008. In our work (elsewhere)1 analysing Pakistan at sectoral level to find underlying factors generating jobless growth, we found that Jobless growth in manufacturing sector was anticipated. Industrial sector has a significant importance in any economy across the glob. Recent changes in the use of capital—based foreign technology has resulted in substitution of labour with non-labour inputs such as capital. Employment shifts between industrial sectors are often witnessed as indicators of Structural change in an economy. In this paper we are more interested in the nature of structural change that took place in Pakistan economy over 1967-2008. We set to analyse four commonly used measures of sectoral reallocation proposed by Lilien (1982), Groshen and Potter (2003), Rissman (1997), and Aaronson, Rissman and Sullivan (2004). Findings of our work are suggesting that the economy of Pakistan underwent structural change during periods of recession and recovery. However, it does appear that structural changes were more pronounced at the time of 1969 recession than that of 1991 recession. A plausible explanation for this result might be significant shifts in employment from agriculture towards services sectors. We conclude, based on the evidence from our study, that sectoral reallocation is one of the major causes of jobless growth in Pakistan.

For a small open economy of Pakistan, exchange rate is determined through the two alternative theories; the nominal theory of exchange rate named by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the real theory known as Harrod Balassa Sameulson (HBS). According to the requirements of theories, two kinds of real exchange rate have been employed for the yearly data of 1972-2008. As, both of the theories are disputed at the ground of their long run relationship with real exchange rate, therefore, the VAR based Johenson Co-integration approach has been utilised to see the long run relationships. PPP has shown less satisfactory results either in its form of absolute version or relative version. Because, real exchange rate in Pakistan is a non-stationary process by Augmented Dickey Fuller unit-root test, predicting some pushing force behind the non-tradable sector. While favouring the PPP in tradable sector, the ADF and KPSS are indicating the presence of the HBS in Pakistan. On the other hand, the analysis of the HBS through co-integration is showing that relative productivity difference has an opposite relationship with relative non-tradable sector prices and with RER. However, the relationship between relative non-tradable sector prices and RER is much stronger and according to the theory. So, there have been incorporated some demand side and external factors to reduce the mis-specification of the simple HBS model. Therefore, in the extended HBS model, productivity difference, government consumption expenditure, terms of trade and world oil prices are appreciating the RER and money supply (a control variable) is pursuing depreciation in RER. So, these results yield some policy implications for Pakistan which can be useful for developing countries as well. JEL classification: E0, E31, E44 Keywords: Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson, Exchange Rate, Purchasing Power Parity, Pakistan

This study used age specific Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) from China to make projections of possible deaths for Pakistan with and without social distancing. The difference between deaths with and without social distancing is the number of lives saved by the social distancing. Further, the study calculated the dollar value of saved lives using the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) method. Estimates show that the number of deaths in Pakistan without social distancing, including lockdown, would reach to 856528. Moderate lockdown, as practiced in Pakistan, may have saved 428264 lives. However, still, more than four hundred thousand lives can be at risk. The dollar value of saved lives can be somewhere between US$ 37.89 billion to US$ 129.81 billion for moderate social distancing and between US$ 68.21 billion to US$ 233.66 billion for strict lockdown depending upon the different VSL. We, therefore, recommend provincial governments in general and federal government in particular to take measures to ensure higher degree of social distancing immediately, otherwise the spread of infection and fatalities may increase exponentially.