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Several authors have recently interpreted the ECB's two-pillar framework as separate approaches to forecast and analyse inflation at different time horizons or frequency bands. The ECB has publicly supported this understanding of the framework. This paper presents further evidence on the behaviour of euro area inflation using band spectrum regressions, which allow for a natural definition of the short and long run in terms of specific frequency bands, and causality tests in the frequency domain. The main finding is that variations in inflation are well explained by low-frequency movements of money and real income growth and high-frequency fluctuations of the output gap

We study the responses of residential property and equity prices, inflation and economic activity to monetary policy shocks in 17 countries, using data spanning 1986-2006, using single-country VARs and panel VARs in which we distinguish between groups of countries depending on their financial systems. The effect of monetary policy on property prices is about three times as large as its impact on GDP. Using monetary policy to guard against financial instability by offsetting asset-price movements thus has sizable effects on economic activity. While the financial structure influences the impact of policy on asset prices, its importance appears limited.

This paper studies the relationships between inflation, economic activity, credit, monetary policy, and residential property and equity prices in 17 OECD countries, using quarterly data for 1986-2006. Using a panel VAR, we find plausible and significant responses to a monetary policy shock. Shocks to asset prices have a positive, significant effect on GDP and credit after three to four quarters, whereas prices start to increase much later. We also consider the transmission of US shocks from the US to the other economies. While monetary policy shocks are transmitted internationally, other shocks are not, perhaps because of the form of coefficient restrictions used.

We study the responses of residential property and equity prices, inflation and economic activity to monetary policy shocks in 17 countries, using data spanning 1986-2006, using single-country VARs and panel VARs in which we distinguish between groups of countries depending on their financial systems. The effect of monetary policy on property prices is about three times as large as its impact on GDP. Using monetary policy to guard against financial instability by offsetting asset-price movements thus has sizable effects on economic activity. While the financial structure influences the impact of policy on asset prices, its importance appears limited.

This paper studies the responses of residential property and equity prices, inflation and economic activity to monetary policy shocks in 17 countries, using data spanning 1986-2006. We estimate VARs for individual economies and panel VARs in which we distinguish between groups of countries on the basis of the characteristics of their financial systems. The results suggest that using monetary policy to offset asset price movements in order to guard against financial instability may have large effects on economic activity. Furthermore, while financial structure influences the impact of policy on asset prices, its importance appears limited. Keywords: asset prices, monetary policy, panel VAR. JEL Number: C23, E52

Mit dem Übergang zu einer gemeinsamen Währung in Europa stellt sich die Frage, ob die Europäische Zentralbank eine Politik der Geldmengensteuerung betreiben kann. Dies erfordert die Existenz einer stabilen Geldnachfragefunktion na¤ch dem Übergang zu einer Europäischen Währungsunion. In diesem Buch werden aggregierte Geldnachfragefunktionen für verschiedene potentielle Teilnehmergruppen der Währungsunion unter Verwendung moderner Zeitreihenverfahren geschätzt und mit Geldnachfragefunktionen auf nationaler Ebene verglichen. Dabei bildet die Untersuchung der Auswirkungen von Aggregation einen Schwerpunkt. Mit einem europäischen Divisia-Index wird außerdem ein mikroökonomisch fundierter¤ Ansatz für die Aggregation verschiedener monetärer Aktiva in unterschiedlichen Währungen entwickelt. Inhalt: Einleitung und Überblick.- Schätzung der Geldnachfragegleichungen: Literaturüberblick; Ergebnisse für die nationalen Geldnachfrageschätzungen; Bildung der aggregierten Variablen; Ergebnisse für die europäischen Schätzungen¤; Tests auf Aggregationsfehler; Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse.- Der P-Stern-Ansatz in Europa: Das Konzept des P-Stern-Ansatzes; Das P-Stern- Modell für das Europäische Währungssystem; Empirische Ergebnisse; Zusammenfassung der Erg¤ebnisse.- Ein europäisches Divisia-Aggregat: Die Definition von Geldmengenaggregaten; Aggregationen mit einem europäishen Divisia-Index; Empirische Ergebnisse; Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse.

This paper applies the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to the estimation of a structural cointegrated VAR model that relates the core macroeconomic variables of the Swiss economy to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. We identify and test a long-run structure between the variables. Moreover, we analyse the dynamic properties of the model using Generalised Impulse Response Functions. In its current form the model can be used to produce forecasts for the endogenous variables either under alternative specifications of the marginal model for the exogenous variables, or conditional on some pre-specified path of those variables (for scenario forecasting). In due course the Swiss VECX model can also be integrated within a Global VAR (GVAR) model where the foreign variables of the model are determined endogenously.

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models. Second, we look at different estimation windows. We find that averaging over estimation windows is at least as effective as averaging over different models and both complement each other. Third, we explore whether using weighting schemes from the machine learning literature improves the average forecast. Compared to equal weights the effect of the weighting scheme on forecast accuracy is small in our application. -- Bayesian model averaging ; choice of observation window ; long-run structural vector autoregression