Suchergebnisse

In a bold and risky political move the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras called for a referendum on June 27 2015 quitting ongoing negotiations with Greece's creditors in Brussels. The referendum framed as a yes or no question asked the Greek voters to decide whether or not they approve or reject the latest take-it-or-leave-it proposal for "program continuation" by Greece's creditors. What followed was a chaotic week leading to the referendum with intense campaigning by the two camps. Due to tense debates and increasing polarisation it became increasingly impossible to rely on traditional polling. Even the first exit polls (performed by phone on Sunday evening) could only see a marginal lead for one or the other vote at different times. Quite possibly people were jumping party lines and were unwilling to reveal their preferences. Using Google Trends I could tap into voters' true and unbiased revealed preferences and nowcast hourly what the ratio of the No vote to the Yes vote is and called an over 60% No vote well ahead of the closing of the voting urns. In this paper I document this nowcasting exercise.

In a bold and risky political move the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras called for a referendum on June 27 2015 quitting ongoing negotiations with Greece's creditors in Brussels. The referendum framed as a yes or no question asked the Greek voters to decide whether or not they approve or reject the latest take-it-or-leave-it proposal for "program con- tinuation" by Greece's creditors. What followed was a chaotic week leading to the referendum with intense campaigning by the two camps. Due to tense debates and increasing polarisation it became increasingly impossible to rely on traditional polling. Even the first exit polls (performed by phone on Sunday evening) could only see a marginal lead for one or the other vote at different times. Quite possibly people were jumping party lines and were unwilling to reveal their preferences. Using Google Trends I could tap into voters' true and unbiased revealed preferences and nowcast hourly what the ratio of the No vote to the Yes vote is and called an over 60% No vote well ahead of the closing of the voting urns. In this paper I document this nowcasting exercise.

Data Documentation and Remote Computing at the International Data Service Center of IZA

This essay sketches technical and non-technical issues around persistent identifiers (henceforth PIs) in a manner which makes no attempt to be complete. Our goal is to rescue the core notions from the obscurity which detail and completeness burdens them with. A reader willing to entertain the idea of their necessity should be able to cut to the chase and follow a more complex and involved debate after reading this. Our hope is that in isolating the core issues we will enable a more founded discussion of the social and political issues involved in PIs.

Überraschend ist im Mai die Arbeitslosigkeit gefallen. Diese positive Entwicklung wird sich im Juni zunächst fortsetzen. Diese Einschätzung basiert auf einem neuen methodischen Konzept, das Google-Aktivitätsdaten für die kurzfristige Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit einsetzt. Gerade in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten sind frühzeitige Prognosen gefragt: Traditionelle Verfahren geben dies mangels rechtzeitig verfügbarer Primärdaten und angesichts rascher struktureller Veränderungen allerdings nicht her. Kurzfristige Politikmaßnahmen verändern darüber hinaus die Datengrundlage. "Weiche" Daten, wie sie das Internet liefert, können in dieser Situation einen Ausweg bieten. Die Erfahrungen im bisherigen Verlauf der Wirtschaftskrise belegen - angesichts schwieriger Rahmenbedingungen - eine insgesamt gute Performance des vorgeschlagenen Konzepts.