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Abstract
Excess mortality has exceeded reported deaths from Covid-19 during the pandemic. This gap may be attributable to deaths that occurred among individuals with undiagnosed Covid-19 infections or indirect consequences of the pandemic response such as interruptions in medical care; distinguishing these possibilities has implications for public health responses. In the present study, we examined patterns of excess mortality over time and by setting (in-hospital or out-of-hospital) and cause of death using death certificate data from California. The estimated number of excess natural-cause deaths from 2020 March 1 to 2021 February 28 (69,182) exceeded the number of Covid-19 diagnosed deaths (53,667) by 29%. Nearly half, 47.4% (32,775), of excess natural-cause deaths occurred out of the hospital, where only 28.6% (9,366) of excess mortality was attributed to Covid-19. Over time, increases or decreases in excess natural non-Covid-19 mortality closely mirrored increases or decreases in Covid-19 mortality. The time series were positively correlated in out-of-hospital settings, particularly at time lags when excess natural-cause deaths preceded reported Covid-19 deaths; for example, when comparing Covid-19 deaths to excess natural-cause deaths in the week prior, the correlation was 0.73. The strong temporal association of reported Covid-19 deaths with excess out-of-hospital deaths from other reported natural-cause causes suggests Covid-19 deaths were undercounted during the first year of the pandemic.

AbstractIntroductionTuberculosis (TB) preventive treatment (TPT) is recommended for people living with HIV (PLHIV) in high TB burden settings. While 6 months of daily isoniazid remains widely used, shorter regimens are now available. However, little is known about preferences of PLHIV for key features of TPT regimens.MethodsFrom July to November 2022, we conducted a discrete choice experiment among adult PLHIV engaged in care at an urban HIV clinic in Kampala, Uganda. Participants chose between two hypothetical TPT regimens with five different features (pills per dose, frequency, duration, need for adjusted antiretroviral therapy [ART] dosage and side effects), organized across nine random choice tasks. We analysed preferences using hierarchical Bayesian estimation, latent class analysis and willingness‐to‐trade simulations.ResultsOf 400 PLHIV, 392 (median age 44, 72% female, 91% TPT‐experienced) had high‐quality choice task responses. Pills per dose was the most important attribute (relative importance 32.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 31.6–33.2), followed by frequency (20.5% [95% CI 19.7–21.3]), duration (19.5% [95% CI 18.6–20.5]) and need for ART dosage adjustment (18.2% [95% CI 17.2–19.2]). Latent class analysis identified three preference groups: one prioritized less frequent, weekly dosing (N = 222; 57%); another was averse to ART dosage adjustment (N = 107; 27%); and the last prioritized short regimens with fewer side effects (N = 63; 16%). All groups highly valued fewer pills per dose. Overall, participants were willing to accept a regimen of 2.8 months' additional duration [95% CI: 2.4–3.2] to reduce pills per dose from five to one, 3.6 [95% CI 2.4–4.8] months for weekly rather than daily dosing and 2.2 [95% CI 1.3–3.0] months to avoid ART dosage adjustment.ConclusionsTo align with preferences of PLHIV in Uganda, decision‐makers should prioritize the development and implementation of TPT regimens with fewer pills, less frequent dosing and no need for ART dosage adjustment, rather than focus primarily on duration of treatment.