Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Extreme sea levels (ESLs) are a major threat for low-lying coastal zones. Climate-change-induced sea level rise (SLR) will increase the frequency of ESLs. In this study, ocean and wind-wave regional simulations are used to produce dynamic projections of ESLs along the western European coastlines. Through a consistent modelling approach, the different contributions to ESLs, such as tides, storm surges, waves, and regionalized mean SLR, as well as most of their non-linear interactions, are included. This study aims at assessing the impact of dynamically simulating future changes in ESL drivers compared to a static approach that does not consider the impact of climate change on ESL distribution. Projected changes in ESLs are analysed using non-stationary extreme value analyses over the whole 1970–2100 period under the SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios. The impact of simulating dynamic changes in extremes is found to be statistically significant in the Mediterranean Sea, with differences in the decennial return level of up to +20 % compared to the static approach. This is attributed to the refined mean SLR simulated by the regional ocean general circulation model. In other parts of our region, we observed compensating projected changes between coastal ESL drivers, along with differences in timing among these drivers. This results in future changes in ESLs being primarily driven by mean SLR from the global climate model used as boundary conditions, with coastal contributions having a second-order effect, in line with previous research.

Abstract. Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. In
order to improve preparedness for such events, a better understanding of
storm-induced coastal flooding episodes is necessary. To this end, this paper
highlights the use of atmospheric downscaling techniques in order to improve
wave and storm surge hindcasts. The downscaling techniques used here are
based on existing European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The results show that the 10 km
resolution data forcing provided by a downscaled atmospheric model gives a
better wave and surge hindcast compared to using data directly from the
reanalysis. Furthermore, the analysis of the most extreme mid-latitude
cyclones indicates that a four-dimensional blending approach improves the
whole process, as it assimilates more small-scale processes in the initial
conditions. Our approach has been successfully applied to ERA-20C (the
20th century reanalysis).

7 pages, 2 figures ; High-resolution satellite images of ocean color and sea surface temperature reveal an abundance of ocean fronts, vortices and filaments at scales below 10 km but measurements of ocean surface dynamics at these scales are rare. There is increasing recognition of the role played by small scale ocean processes in ocean-atmosphere coupling, upper-ocean mixing and ocean vertical transports, with advanced numerical models and in situ observations highlighting fundamental changes in dynamics when scales reach 1 km. Numerous scientific publications highlight the global impact of small oceanic scales on marine ecosystems, operational forecasts and long-term climate projections through strong ageostrophic circulations, large vertical ocean velocities and mixed layer re-stratification. Small-scale processes particularly dominate in coastal, shelf and polar seas where they mediate important exchanges between land, ocean, atmosphere and the cryosphere, e.g., freshwater, pollutants. As numerical models continue to evolve toward finer spatial resolution and increasingly complex coupled atmosphere-wave-ice-ocean systems, modern observing capability lags behind, unable to deliver the high-resolution synoptic measurements of total currents, wind vectors and waves needed to advance understanding, develop better parameterizations and improve model validations, forecasts and projections. SEASTAR is a satellite mission concept that proposes to directly address this critical observational gap with synoptic two-dimensional imaging of total ocean surface current vectors and wind vectors at 1 km resolution and coincident directional wave spectra. Based on major recent advances in squinted along-track Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry, SEASTAR is an innovative, mature concept with unique demonstrated capabilities, seeking to proceed toward spaceborne implementation within Europe and beyond ; CG and AM received funding from the United Kingdom Centre for Earth Observation Instrumentation SEASTAR+ project (Contract No. RP10G0435A02). PVL was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) CUNDA project 694509 under the European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program ; Peer Reviewed