Suchergebnisse

This report presents the results of the third and the last workshop in the series "Yamal 2040" organised within Blue-Action work package WP5 "Delivering and valuing climate and information services". The Blue-Action team at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in cooperation with the Primakov National Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Science (IMEMO) and Foresight Intelligence, and with inputs provided by the National Oceanographic Center (UKRI-NOC) and the M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP-RAS) in the Blue-Action work package WP2 "Lower latitude drivers of Arctic changes" developed forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with multiple developments in the Arctic and help stakeholders to adapt to them. This case study looks at a specific region, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug in Arctic Russia (YNAO or Yamal region), a region with substantial ongoing and planned petroleum and shipping activities. Together with stakeholder groups, the team has co-developed a suite of scenarios to describe possible futures for this region in 2040 by incorporating cutting edge climate predictions with environmental, social and cultural concerns, economic opportunities, and political and legal developments. The scenarios are the outcome of a truly co-design and co-development process involving partners, stakeholders and using various foresight methods tailored to the project's needs. These methods allow to constructively deal with cognitive biases, thus enabling participants to think out of the box when planning the future. This approach is very helpful in tackling complex issues linked to numerous interacting uncertainties.

People living or working in the Arctic are faced with uncertainty regarding future social, political, economic, and environmental change. This uncertainty is due not least to the ongoing transformations caused by climate change. This paper presents results from a project entitled "Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic", which employed 'Strategic Foresight', a specific co-design and engagement methodology, to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Yamal region) in Western Siberia, Russia. It was the project's objective to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. The findings presented here may be of interest for stakeholders in other parts of the Arctic and Russia that depend on the exploitation of fossil fuels and/or are facing complex and uncertain situations.