Suchergebnisse

Purpose
The paper aims to address a gap in foresight study and practice relating to the lack of unifying theoretical systems frameworks capable of examining empirical data from across a wide range of different ecological, social, political and economic systems. It attempts to develop a new "collective forward intelligence" that can not only make sense of these disparate trends and processes as symptoms of a wider planetary system but also, on this basis, construct accurate and plausible future scenarios to underpin national and international decision-making.


Design/methodology/approach
This study conducts a transdisciplinary integration of C. S. Holling's adaptive cycle with phase-transition phenomena across biology, physics and chemistry, applied on societal and civilisational scales. A systems methodology is then applied to integrate historical and empirical data across the energy, food, transport, materials and information sectors of civilisation's production system.


Findings
The paper develops planetary phase shift theory as a new collective forward intelligence framework for foresight study and practice, formalising the notion that humanity has arrived at an unprecedented historic and geological turning point. It finds that multiple global crises across both earth and human systems are symptoms of the last stages of the life-cycle of global industrialisation civilisation, which is the potential precursor either for collapse, or for a new civilisational life-cycle that may represent a new stage in the biological and cultural evolution of the human species.


Research limitations/implications
The research sets out a new empirically grounded theoretical framework for complex scenario analysis. This can develop more robust approaches to foresight study and practice, scenario development and forecasting. It suggests the need for a new research programme to understand the dynamics of the planetary phase shift and its diverse implications for societies, industry, technology and politics. The research is limited in that the current paper does not explore how it can be applied in this way. It identifies broad scenarios for a post-industrial civilisational life-cycle but does not identify the variety of complex subsets of these.


Practical implications
The paper provides powerful practical implications to develop new methodology based on planetary phase shift theory for strategic planning, risk assessment and management, as well as public policy and decision-making.


Social implications
The paper suggests the urgency and necessity of bold and radical societal transformation and implies key areas for civil society to focus on in innovating new values, worldviews and operating systems with a focus on the next life-cycle.


Originality/value
To the best of the author's knowledge, this paper provides the first integrated transdisciplinary theoretical and empirical framework to understand how the interplay of earth system crises, societal change and technology disruptions is driving large-scale civilisational transformation with complex local ramifications.

Contents -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: The Crisis of Civilization as an Analytical Framework -- 2.1 The Human-Environment System as a Complex Adaptive System -- 2.2 The Energy Metabolism of Human Civilization -- 2.3 The Physics of System Failure -- Chapter 3: Net Energy Decline -- 3.1 The Decline of Conventional Oil -- 3.2 The Rise and Decline of Unconventional Oil and Gas -- 3.3 The Rise and Decline of Shale Gas -- 3.4 The Decline of Coal and Uranium -- 3.5 Peak and Terminal Decline of Net Energy -- Chapter 4: Permanent Secular Stagnation

AbstractThe COVID‐19 virus has caused a crisis for the world's economy and markets. The World Health Organization has declared the virus to be a global pandemic, meaning that it will have a sustained impact worldwide. In response to the shutdown of economies, governments across the world have implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus packages to counteract the disruption caused by the coronavirus. However, with many countries' economies already slowing before the pandemic, the measures to combat the virus risk sending many countries into full scale recession for the first time since 2009, according to the European Commission. COVID‐19 has demonstrated the vulnerability of global supply chains and the need for more resilient infrastructures. Yet Europe cannot do this alone. The EU can only achieve this by strengthening ties and increasing trade cooperation with Asia and South America, in alignment with the values of sustainability. Prior to the COVID‐19 crisis, however, the EU has had major public disagreements around trade with both regions, essentially on environmental issues. By prioritising cooperation, the EU can work with developing countries in Asia and South America to take tangible steps towards environmentally sustainable production while boosting economic trade.

The COVID‐19 virus has caused a crisis for the world's economy and markets. The World Health Organization has declared the virus to be a global pandemic, meaning that it will have a sustained impact worldwide. In response to the shutdown of economies, governments across the world have implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus packages to counteract the disruption caused by the coronavirus. However, with many countries' economies already slowing before the pandemic, the measures to combat the virus risk sending many countries into full scale recession for the first time since 2009, according to the European Commission. COVID‐19 has demonstrated the vulnerability of global supply chains and the need for more resilient infrastructures. Yet Europe cannot do this alone. The EU can only achieve this by strengthening ties and increasing trade cooperation with Asia and South America, in alignment with the values of sustainability. Prior to the COVID‐19 crisis, however, the EU has had major public disagreements around trade with both regions, essentially on environmental issues. By prioritising cooperation, the EU can work with developing countries in Asia and South America to take tangible steps towards environmentally sustainable production while boosting economic trade.

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