Suchergebnisse

AbstractForecasts are common in agricultural settings where they are routinely used for decision‐making. The advent of the computer age has allowed for rapid generation of individual forecasts that can be updated in real time. It is well known that the selection and use of a single forecast can expose the forecaster to serious error as a result of model mis‐specification. Forecast combination avoids this problem by combining information from different forecasts. Although forecast combination can be as simple as averaging across forecasts, advances in machine learning have made it possible to combine forecasts according to more complicated weighting schemes and criteria. We provide an overview of forecast combination techniques, including those at the frontier of current practice and involving machine learning. We also provide a retrospective on the use of forecast combination in agricultural economics and prospects for the future. Several of the techniques are illustrated in an application to forecasting nationwide corn and soybean planted acreage and we demonstrate how forecast combination can improve expert USDA projections.

AbstractAgricultural and applied economists make substantial positive contributions to the domestic economy. Defining a measure of the true total value of their contributions is likely impossible, because so much about their efforts is difficult to comprehensively observe and quantitatively document. In this paper, we adopt a conservative approach to generating an estimate of the contributions ag and applied economists make to U.S. economic output and the associated welfare of society through their teaching, research, and outreach efforts. To conduct the analysis, we implemented a nationwide survey of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AAE) departments and developed a framework to calculate the value of their contributions to national income, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We estimate that AAE departments increase overall U.S. GDP by $2.6 billion, annually. Through its efforts to improve the human capital of its graduates, AAE teaching raises the (expected) national income by $2.2–$2.3 billion, while we value direct research and outreach contributions at $207 million and $146 million, respectively. Because we do not observe the opportunity cost of the resources used to generate those contributions, we do not claim to estimate a true net economic impact but rather attempt to quantify the gross economic contributions of the professional services AAE departments currently offer the economy. The values we provide—especially the research and extension estimates which are exceedingly difficult to measure—likely underestimate the true benefits AAE offers to the nation.

AbstractBeginning in mid‐2021, U.S. food prices surged at the fastest pace in decades, due to pandemic‐related supply chain and labor shortages, rising transportation costs and wages, food commodity and fertilizer shocks resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and perhaps demand‐side effects of recent monetary and fiscal stimulus. We decompose the path of domestic food prices into explanatory factors, grouped by supply or demand orientation. Our findings indicate that although supply‐side factors explain most of the observed price changes, the demand‐side factors we studied—particularly the money supply—have a stronger correlation with recent food price increases than they have, historically.

AbstractGovernment crop data have been shown to contribute to the efficient operation of agricultural commodity markets. In 2013, the USDA curtailed its crop report publication for the first time in decades due to an appropriations lapse, thereby offering the chance to study the impact on markets of missing government data. As expected, derivatives markets for corn and soybeans did not display characteristic short‐run patterns in terms of uncertainty resolution and price changes that are normally observed around scheduled USDA release times. We are unable to detect evidence of a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty, realized volatility around the missing report, or abnormal pricing errors in the absence of government data. However, an unsurprisingly large 2013 corn and soybean crop could confound that attempt.

This study investigates whether major USDA reports still provide important news to changing crop markets. The news component of each report, or market "surprise," is measured as a difference between the USDA estimate and its private expectation in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets. Changes in the relevance of USDA information are assessed by examining changes in the magnitude of market surprises and shifts in the futures price reaction to these surprises, which isolates the impact of each report. The stable size of market surprises over time suggests that competition from alternative data sources has not reduced the news component of USDA crop reports. Increasing price reaction to most reports, including those facing competition from alternative information sources, suggests that value of public information may be enhanced in uncertain markets affected by structural changes. ; Office of the Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture [58-0111-15-014] ; Funding support from the Office of the Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture under Cooperative Agreement No. 58-0111-15-014 is gratefully acknowledged. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. ; Public domain authored by a U.S. government employee

This study compares the impact of Prospective Plantings, Acreage, Crop Production, Crop Production Annual Summary, Grain Stocks, WASDE, Cattle on Feed, and Hogs and Pigs reports on corn, soybean, wheat, cotton, live cattle, and lean hogs markets over 1985-2018. Simultaneous releases of several reports are handled by evaluating the impact of report clusters. Our approach allows us to demonstrate the relative impact of various information releases and shows when the markets tend to be affected the most. The findings of this study provide evidence and guidance for future policy decision regarding the role of USDA information in modern agricultural markets. ; Office of the Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture [58-0111-15-014] ; Published version ; Funding support from the Office of the Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture under Cooperative Agreement No. 58-0111-15-014 is gratefully acknowledged. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. ; Public domain authored by a U.S. government employee