Suchergebnisse

This paper examines the effects of increasing the compulsory school leaving (CSL) age from 16 to 18 in Hungary using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) identification strategy. The new CSL age was introduced for those entering their first year of elementary school in 1998. Identification is based on compliance with the age of elementary school start rule. Compliance with the age rule creates a discontinuity in the probability of starting school under the higher CSL age regime around a cutoff date of birth. The treated cohort had known about the change since age 6. This fact allows for testing on how the increase affected forward-looking decision making about secondary school track choice which occurs at age 14. The legislation change resulted in an increased probability that children would choose the academic high school track instead of vocational training schools. At the same time, those choosing vocational training schools are more likely to drop out under the higher CSL age scheme. Potential explanations of increased dropout rates include a decrease in the quality of teaching in vocational training schools due to supply constraints, and a shift in student composition to include more students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds.

This paper examines the effects that an increase in compulsory school-leaving (CSL) age has on the teenage fertility (both motherhood and pregnancy) of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy based on exact date of birth. Increasing the CSL age from age 16 to 18 decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 6.8 percentage points. The higher CSL age delayed first birth-giving by two years. We exploit a unique database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions, and still births, and contains information on the time conception precise to the week.We propose that the impact of the legislative change can be explained by the incapacitation effect of education: the higher CSL age decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks.

This paper investigates the relative importance of confidence in public institutions to explain cross-country differences in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. We extend the related literature by employing regression and machine learning methods to identify the most critical predictors of deaths attributed to the pandemic. We find that a one standard deviation increase (e.g., the actual difference between the US and Finland) in confidence is associated with 350.9 fewer predicted deaths per million inhabitants. Confidence in public institutions is one of the most important predictors of deaths attributed to COVID-19, compared to country-level measures of individual health risks, the health system, demographics, economic and political development, and social capital. Our results suggest that effective policy implementation requires citizens to cooperate with their governments, and willingness to cooperate relies on confidence in public institutions.

This paper investigates the relative importance of confidence in public institutions in explaining cross-country differences in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. We extend the related literature by employing regression and machine learning methods to identify the most critical predictors of deaths attributed to the pandemic. We find that a one standard deviation increase (e.g., the actual difference between the US and Finland) in confidence is associated with 350.9 (95% CI -531.922 - -169.831, p=0.000) fewer predicted deaths per million inhabitants. Confidence in public institutions is one of the most important predictors of deaths attributed to COVID-19, compared to country-level measures of individual health risks, the health system, demographics, economic and political development, and social capital. Our results suggest that effective policy implementation requires citizens to cooperate with their governments, and willingness to cooperate relies on confidence in public institutions.