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In: Futures, Band 41, Heft 5, S. 279-283
In: Futures: the journal of policy, planning and futures studies, Band 41, Heft 5, S. 279-284
ISSN: 0016-3287
In: Foresight, Band 9, Heft 4, S. 58-62
PurposeThis article seeks to emphasize the importance of two elements; the nature of the strategic landscape and time, which are often neglected in foresight and strategic management by putting them in a form that makes them the basis for twenty‐first century strategic management.Design/methodology/approachThe multi‐ontology approach states that the properties of strategic landscapes vary from linear to complex and even to disruptive, and that the dynamics of action in each of them is different. Consequently, when analyzing strategic landscapes, variations between them should be distinguished and different tools and methods applied accordingly.FindingsAn added sensitivity to socially and situationally constructed worlds allows for new tactical and strategic possibilities.Research limitations/implicationsThis article is not a concluding chapter, rather an opening one that points the way for a number of necessary further developments.Practical implicationsThe article suggests that more contextually constructed approaches with respect to strategic landscapes and time are required; and that when applied they will lead to more appropriate and more effective outcomes in both sense‐making and decision‐making.Originality/valueThe article's concept of chronotope space enables us to dissect the complex tradeoffs between the properties of strategic landscape and the time frame at stake.
In: Foresight, Band 8, Heft 3, S. 28-35
PurposeThe purpose of this research paper is to review and contrast traditional foresight methods through the lens of one of the key insights about complex adaptive systems – namely, a system's sensitive dependence on initial conditions.Design/methodology/approachForesight methods have often been criticized about their linear way of looking at the future. Insights from complex adaptive systems research, however, provide a new theory‐driven approach for developing real foresight methods as opposed to traditional forecasting methods based primarily on linear extrapolation. This serves as a starting point for the re‐analysis and re‐classification of the foresight methods, presented profoundly in the American Council for the United Nation's University Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology – V2.0.FindingsThe findings of the analysis show which foresight methods actually present the future as a continuation of the present, and which instead are able to identify a system's new and emerging initial conditions; and what kind of possible understanding of the system the methods offer to the user.Research limitations/implicationsThis research paper provides a new perspective to reopen the discussion about the necessary qualities of foresight methods. This paper argues that instead of trying to forecast the future the foresight methods should help us to see and influence the future as it is emerging.Practical implicationsDiscussion and guidelines for methodological work and an introduction of complex systems concept‐tools map, a new set of methods and the way how it could be used together with Futures Research Methodology – V2.0 represent vast implications for organizations' foresight practices.Originality/valueThe origins of novelty are two: the complex adaptive systems perspective to discuss foresight methods, and the presentation of the new set of methods to support and complement Futures Research Methodology – V2.0.
A BOLD NEW VISION FOR THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS, FROM THE BESTSELLING AUTHOR OF THE DREAM SOCIETY THIS IS A BOOK ABOUT THE FUTURE. Your future. Our future. The future of companies, the marketplace, and society. According to futurists Rolf Jensen and Mika Aaltonen, we are currently "between dreams." We've managed to achieve many of our material goals, only to face ever-growing global competition in an ever-slowing economy. Here's the good news: With the rise of social media and online resources, consumers are growing more powerful. Individuals are exploring more options. And smart businesses are discovering more ways to appeal to this powerful new community. Welcome to The Renaissance Society. A world-class network of ordinary people who are changing the way companies and communities interact, they are the future--and they are us. This forward- thinking book guides you through tomorrow's hottest trends to help you: Make an emotional connection to your customers Create a value-driven company that engages your employees Adjust your business strategy for a flatter, global marketplace Reward individual expression and spark a tribal spirit Identify future trends to build long-term success Jensen and Aaltonen's razor-sharp predictions offer a much-needed headsup--and a major head-start--for your future success. You'll explore revolutionary ways in which the individual's role will shift from consumer to creator--much like it did during the European Renaissance. You'll find out why learning will become the world's largest industry and how services will become the twenty-first century's biggest growth market. You'll see a powerful shift in the concept of ownership, the role of employees within a company, and the role of companies in society. Most important, you'll be able to turn these fascinating predictions into real-world opportunities for decades to come. In The Renaissance Society, everybody matters. Each and every one of us has the power to reshape the future of our companies. To reignite the passion of our communities. And to restore our faith in ourselves, our dreams, and our limitless potential for growth. PRAISE FOR THE RENAISSANCE SOCIETY "Jensen and Aaltonen have created a captivating portrait of tomorrow, one that inspires us to think of alternatives. Decision makers in all fields will find that this book provides powerful reasons to question their grasp of the present."--Riel Miller, Foresight Director, UNESCO "Mika and Rolf inspire our thinking and action with a book based on solid theory--and their vast experience working with leading international companies. It is a valuable reference for leaders in both business and politics." -- DR. STEFAN BERGHEIM, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR SOCIETAL PROGRESS, GERMANY "The Renaissance Society is a fascinating and highly readable guide to the future and the possibilities it holds. These are hard times for many people but this book helps to lift our sights and see the scope now emerging for a step change in human achievement." -- Matthew Taylor, Chief Executive, Royal Society of Arts PRAISE FOR ROLF JENSEN'S THE DREAM SOCIETY "Riveting." -- Library Journal "Dramatic insights." -- Atlanta Business Chronicle "Rolf Jensen is pointing the way to the future." -- Harriet Rubin, author, The Princessa: Machiavelli for Women