Suchergebnisse

Thesis. The use of mathematical models to nowcast and forecast allows to improve predictive understanding of epidemiological targets and indexes among various populations during infectious disease epidemics. Such models enable trend predictions of various scenarios of the pandemic and guiding epidemic prevention and control.
Concept. In order to avoid the influence of low-quality studies (for a given region) on the interpretation and decision making, a critical analysis based on experience in field epidemiology should be carried out. For the sake of transparency and quality of scientific discourse, such observations should indeed be collected and discussed by the scientific and medical community. Selected global modelling studies have been assessed according to their epidemiological outcomes such as cases and deaths.
Results and Conclusions: I show that the discrepancy between reported and predicted epidemiological features varies more significantly than the order of magnitude between the countries in selected models. My findings highlight that models' results; readers should prefer locally developed models over multi-country models, even those being published in prestigious journals. Thus, agent based models should be prioritised against system dynamics or machine learning models. I suggest that future epidemiological models should adopt healthcare access as a factor of so-called dark figure of infections, especially in Eastern Europe.

Aim. We analyze temporal dynamics of entertainment industry including literature,music, fi lms and video games, introducing possible analogies between them. We providea framework for further explanation based on the economic concepts as revenue, organizationstructure and marketing goals in these creative industries for different technologicaleras.Methods. Initially, accurate data collected for time series of weekly record sales areanalyzed from statistical point of view (e.g. networks of artists, record labels and producers).This method may be extended to other parts of entertainment industry in search ofanalogies, under the infl uence of technological revolutions.Results. We provide the statistical properties of the mass art entertainment industry(including value of the markets, seasonality, products life-cycles) and interactions betweenvarious kinds of entertainment (e.g. fi lms might be infl uenced by literature with a delay).We are able to distinguish predigital, digital and postdigital eras.Conclusions. There are many ways of describing and measuring the impact of selectedentertainment industries with the most important as literature, music, fi lms and videogames. However, universal analogies may explain objective properties of entertainmentindustry in general.

Aim. African Swine Fever (ASF) is a viral infection in domestic pigs and wild boars.It is estimated that ASF causes more than one billion EUR losses in Eastern Europe everyyear. In Poland, after initial outbreaks in 2014, almost 90% of pig farms stopped their production(in regions affected up to June 2017) due to restrictions (Jarynowski, Belk, 2019). InNovember 2019, the ASF virus has been confi rmed in a wild boar in the Wschowa poviat,just 30 km from the pig production hub in Wielkopolska (the so-called "swine district").Recent rapid propagation of the ASF from East to West of Europe encouraged us to prepareanalysis of the Internet media awareness in Poland refl ecting the above mentioned socialdynamics.Methods. Using computational techniques we analyse agents and events in the Internetmedia. The intensive control measures against ASF in the European Union signifi cantlytransform biosecurity, trade, sanitary, environmental regulations and ethical standardscausing protests of various social groups of interest: 1) farmers (who are not ready to applye-methodology 2019 (6) 101biosecurity measures), 2) ecologists (who do not agree with governmental policy of wildboar depopulation) and 3) hunters with public administration (that have to take control onwild boar population).Results. In particular, we have reviewed possible ways of public opinion's infl uenceusing Twitter, Facebook and mainstream websites's data of selected groups of interest. Weidentify two main frames of events: 1) Culling of wild boar to minimize ASF spread and therisk of transmission to domestic pigs caused massive protest among ecological associationsin Poland, due to opposition of some experts in beginning of 2019; 2) jump of the virus toWestern Poland caused intensive discussion and lobbying of farmers postulates at the turnof 2019/2020.Conclusions. We claim that reliable analysis of the perception of the ASF is importantto understand possible confl icts and issues. We have provided analysis of usability of availableInternet resources as Secondary Data Digital Footprints.Key words: The Internet media, Social Media, Risk perception, African Swine Fever,ASF, Digital traces, Veterinary Public Health.

Aim. Contact networks play a crucial role in infectious disease propagation and position in the network mediate risk of acquiring or sending infections. We studied the spread of hospital-associated infections through computer simulations and validated our 'computer assisted' risk assessment with 'human' risk assessment in a prospective study.Concept. We collected time-varying structure of contacts and covariates reconstructed from Polish Hospitals:1. The organisational structure is mapped by a set of questionnaires, CAD maps integration, functional paths annotation and local vision. It is done mostly by surveys within medical staff through an interactive web application.2. The Cohabitation layer processes data from the registry of patient admissions and discharges from each hospital unit (wards, clinics, etc.) and medical shift register. With simulated infection paths, we were able to compute network centrality measures for patients. We obtained the risk of getting infected, based on the patient's incoming connections, and the risk of spreading infections resulting from outgoing connections. We compare various standard centrality measures – position of patients and staff in contact networks ('computer assisted' risk assessment) of both contacts and paths networks, with a predictor of 'human' risk perception (based on 190 patients).Results. We showed that the best predictor of HAI risk is Adjusted Rage Rank on paths (r= 0.42, p < 0.01). However, surprisingly good predictive power in risk assessment was found in the betweenness centrality of the underlying network of contacts (r = 0.30, p < 0.01).Conclusion: We conclude that epidemiology of a given pathogen in a given place and time could be explained only with the contact network only to a large extent. However, further possibility of the collection, processing and storage of the data on individual persons, translated to mathematical modelling could lead in future to satisfactory improvement in risk assessment.

Extensive anti-government protests have been held in Poland in October 2020 related to accumulated social tensions due to COVID-19 pandemic among others. Measures against Coronavirus were not the only reason for demonstrations and protests at this time. For instance farmers organized protests in over 1000 locations across the country. However, pro-choice (abortion) demonstrations gather the highest number of protesters and attention in media. Methods: Tweets in Polish language with hashtags #Strajkkobiet representing pro-choice movement woman's strike (227125), #zajob representing coronascepricism movement (22379), #ProtestRolników for farmers protest (9739) have been collected. Next step was to perform statistical analysis of the time series, Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods such as sentiment analysis techniques and conceptual field analysis, Social Network Analysis (SNA) of the Internet media users connected via their tweets sharing activities. Results: We have identified in each of the protests:-main actors and communities;-key vocabulary, topics and sentiment;-characteristic timeline. For instance majority of users engaged with #Strajkkobiet are teenagers, which are only weakly connected to activists. #ProtestRolników has clear structure of communities of particular interest among protester as farmers, agricultural and rightwing parties as well as pro and anti governmental parties, who are against protests. Anticovid discourse (#Zajob) does not reveal any particular structure and consist of multiple individual protesters. Conclusions: Massive gatherings could catalyze COVID-19 spread and harm reduction policy must be applied. We have profiled users for each protest to effectively reach them with health interventions. The revealed insights shed light on social dynamics in the context of such major dis-ruptive events as COVID-19 pandemic and could serve as a basis for optimization of risk awareness campaigns by the authorities.

Aim. In cases of environmental danger, the information spread plays an important role in risk
management. We have considered recent arsenic environmental danger in Głogów and Legnica (Copper/Cuprum Basin) according to the available data (2015-2017) from social network analysis and agent-based modelling point of view.
Thesis. In case of danger of unknown consequences, there are at least 2 different strategies of
information management:
1) information spread that leads to awareness of the whole society;
2) keeping the whole information in secret under control that leads to a partial social awareness, available to a small number of people only.
Methods. In our model, the probability of information spread between two nodes is inverse
proportion to connectivity of the susceptible node because people who have a lot of connections are more immune. We have applied theoretical agent-based modelling on Barabasi-Albert networks to explore various scenarios of information spread in Social Media. We have investigated the function of hubs within that concept.
Results. We have considered various levels of environmental danger and draw possible projections for the future. Oscillations according to temporal socio-political conditions as well as increase in attention in 2018 have been revealed.
Conclusions. Despite blocking of information by hubs, the successful information spread is possible when levels of danger are high enough. The perception and impression of information spread by society is also discussed.

The riots in Stockholm in May 2013 were an event that reverberated in the world media for its dimension of violence that had spreadthrough the Swedish capital. In this study we have investigated the role of social media in creating media phenomena via text miningand natural language processing. We have focused on two channels of communication for our analysis: Twitter and Poloniainfo.se(Forum of Polish community in Sweden). Our preliminary results show some hot topics driving discussion related mostly to SwedishPolice and Swedish Politics by counting word usage. Typical features for media intervention are presented. We have built networks ofmost popular phrases, clustered by categories (geography, media institution, etc.). Sentiment analysis shows negative connotation withPolice. The aim of this preliminary exploratory quantitative study was to generate questions and hypotheses, which we could carefullyfollow by deeper more qualitative methods.

The riots in Stockholm in May 2013 were an event that reverberated in the world media for its dimension of violence that had spread through the Swedish capital. In this study we have investigated the role of social media in creating media phenomena via text mining and natural language processing. We have focused on two channels of communication for our analysis: Twitter and Poloniainfo.se (Forum of Polish community in Sweden). Our preliminary results show some hot topics driving discussion related mostly to Swedish Police and Swedish Politics by counting word usage. Typical features for media intervention are presented. We have built networks of most popular phrases, clustered by categories (geography, media institution, etc.). Sentiment analysis shows negative connotation with Police. The aim of this preliminary exploratory quantitative study was to generate questions and hypotheses, which we could carefully follow by deeper more qualitative methods.

Introduction and Methods. The aim of this study was to perform real-time monitoring of the interest on the Internet in topics related to "food security," "poisoned grain," and "pesticides" in central-eastern (CE) Europe (mainly Poland) in April 2023, with a focus on crisis management in context of food and information security. The article explores the phases of media coverage during the climax period and identifies the involvement of right/left-wing, mainstream, and Kremlin propaganda narratives.
Results.We differentiate the following phases of the interest: 1) farmers protests in CE Europe; 2) a peak phase with mainstream media attention on April 14, characterised by negative sentiment; 3) mixed right-left phase with high traffic and small reach; 4) a commenting phase with traditional media engagement from April 17; and finally, 5) a Kremlin propaganda phase targeting the internal market on April 18-19, with limited impact on the Polish infosphere, but entering Bulgaria and Romania's infosphere.
Conclusions. The success of the misinformation campaign is highlighted in the context of food security. The study suggests that the Kremlin aims to exploit existing problems and conflicts to generate disputes between Poland, Ukraine, and the EU. The role of other internal and external forces in affecting the information landscape is considered. Overall, this study aims to provide insights into handling misinformation and crisis management in the domain of food security.

Introduction. This paper explores the reactions of citizens to a perceived security risk at the human-wildlife interface mediated by social and traditional media sources. We take the case study of a reported 'lioness' appearing in the outskirts of Berlin as a risk to human and domestic animal life, sparking media frenzies.
Methods. The subjects' reactions to and perceptions of risk can be analysed through a mixed-methods (quantitative and qualitative) approach to information obtained via the respective media channels in covering the phenomenon as a newsworthy event of this research identifies three distinct peaks in public interest and response.
Results. Following a Foucauldian tradition of problematisation, and a scholarship of critical media studies, we demonstrate that the ordering of animals in relation to society allows for a normalisation of certain threats from human-wildlife conflict while placing others in a state of exception which needs immediate action. We do not take the social conditions of predator-prey relations as a given, but seek to 'de-normalise' them and question the level of risk constructed, which plays out across public and media spheres and may carry over into human-wildlife conflicts. Our case study shows how social media posts can lead to the emergence of a perceived risk to society, which is reacted to dramatically, and whose emergency situation becomes a newsworthy event that confirms and seems to justify the level of security measures taken. The engagement of citizens online and with the emergency response teams can be viewed as overreacting to the situations based on having a real sense of danger of a 'lioness' penetrating their interactions with larger wildlife.
Conclusions: That is, until it is determined that no immediate risk exists, and the actions taken are critiqued as a hysterical misinformed approach of 'city dwelling' officials lacking knowledge of wildlife in one's region. We then speculate about what ethical and political repercussions this may create for multispecies co-existence with predators and pests in Germany.

Aim. The Internet and e-health solutions have become an integral part of daily life due to the pandemic. We are exploring the most impactful and positive innovations such as risk calculators or dashboards with forecasts and current situations aimed at providing information to the public.
Concept. We analysed four innovative, Wrocław-based risk calculators which allow users to better understand transmission dynamics, pathogenesis process or infection control.
Result. Practical application: We show that: 1) Polish COVID-19 symptom checker for self-diagnosis is among the leading products providing similar services around the world; 2) predicting disease course at its beginning is one of the main challenges of future medicine due to the availability of various kinds of data; 3) analysis of spatio-temporal transmission patterns based on digital surveillance for a given community can help with managing infection control locally; and 4) Sputnik V risk calculator enables patients to estimate probabilities of having given adverse events (probably the first app of this kind) following a given individual's variables (age, gender and dose).
Conclusion. There are already thousands of disseminated e-health solutions related to the coronavirus pandemic which will shape medicine for the next decade. Risk calculators can impact both individual decisions as well as community public health service.

Aim. We perform an exploratory study of how Social Media Listening using simple keywords can be useful in pharmacosurveillance of Adverse Events (AE) of COVID-19 vaccines.Concept. 43375 Tweets about vaccines during the fi rst weeks of Comirnaty COVID-19 vaccine roll-outs in Poland were collected. We analyse the frequency of occurrence of selected common symptoms by infodemiological (related to self-reporting posts) and compare them with the epidemiological (product summary and post-registration) surveillance in Poland.Results. The AE keywords posting in Social Media is mainly driven by media interest rather than real burden of AE. The best accordance between infodemiological and epidemiological surveillance was found for systemic reactions, however local and gastric reactions seems to be underrepresented in social media. Conclusion. Infodemiology can be useful in early warning pharmacosurveillance of some AE during massive drug delivery as immunisation. Some keywords of symptoms such as fever or pain seem to be the most promising and due to low cost of monitoring should be incorporated in real-time dashboards for decision makers.

The article presents the results of the secondary analysis of qualitative and quantitative data in relation to social research conducted in Poland during the pandemic. The research results were introduced on the basis of analyzes of 180 projects carried out by scientific and commercial institutions in the period from January to May 2020. The aim of the project is to present a standard way of conducting empirical research for social researchers who undertake the challenge of identifying the phenomena accompanying the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We are interested in the possibility of drawing conclusions that go beyond individual research projects carried out in the social field. The conclusions recommended by us concern the following issues: mitigating the polarization of social attitudes dynamically changing during a pandemic, practical solving – and not only diagnosing – problems revealed in COVID reality and supplementing the deficiencies of theoretical assumptions accompanying research works.

Aim. Our task was to examine the relationship between the SARS–CoV–2 arrival and the number of confi rmed COVID–19 cases in the fi rst wave (period from March 4 to May 22, 2020 (unoffi cial data)), and socio–economic variables at the powiat (county) level.Methods. We were using simple statistical techniques such as data visualisation, correlation analysis, spatial clustering and multiple linear regression.Results. We showed that immigration and the logarithm of general mobility was the best predictor of SARS–CoV–2 arrival times, while emigration, industrialisation and air quality explain most of the size of the epidemic in poviats. On the other hand, infection dynamics is driven to a lesser extent by previously postulated variables such as population size and density, income or the size of the elderly population.Conclusions. Our analyses could support Polish authorities in preparation for the second wave of infections and optimal management of resources as we have provided a proposition of optimal distribution of human resources between poviats. Although this isa retrospective analysis of the initial phase of the epidemic, similar patterns could repeat in case of new variants of SARS–CoV–2 or new respiratory disease for immunologically naive populations.