Suchergebnisse

В настоящее время слабым звеном в обосновании инвестиционных проектов является отсутствие количественной оценки величины риска, возникающего вследствие неполной или недостоверной информации об условиях реализации проекта. В статье предлагается методика количественной оценки рисков при инвестировании в производство древесных пеллет, основанная на использования метода Монте-Карло. Отличие предлагаемого подхода состоит в том, что значение каждого параметра проекта дается не в виде одного числа, а в виде интервала, в пределах которого компьютер случайным образом выбирает конкретное значение параметра. Таким образом производится расчет многих тысяч вариантов и определяется вероятность появления тех или иных результатов проекта, в том числе и отрицательных. Эксперименты с компьютерной моделью показали, что в настоящее время наиболее важными факторами риска являются обменный курс валют, ставка по кредиту, цены на готовую продукцию и цены на древесное сырье. Установлено, что риск возникновения потерь от инвестиций в производство древесных пеллет при их экспорте в страны Западной Европы велик только при высоких ценах на древесное сырье. ; Formation of a favorable investment climate one of the main objectives of economic policy. Policy successfully reach goal if business and government dialogue takes place regularly, and both sides understand each other well. The parties understand each other better when they speak the same language. That language could be the results of experiments on computer-models. Usually, the developers of the investment project set all the parameters of the model as a single number. In analyzing the effectiveness of the project, they compare to only three options: pessimistic, most likely and optimistic. Theydo not assessthe likelihood ofriskto quantify. Such an approach is of little use in the context of current economic instability. Analysis of the results of computer experiments Monte Carlo gives a much more useful information. This method makes it possible to identify those factors that have the greatest impact on investment performance. In addition, it allows estimating risks quantitatively. Experiment with a computer model of investment in the production of wood pellets has shown that at present the most important risk factor is the exchange rate, loan rate, prices for finished goods and prices for wood raw material. We have shown thatthe risk of lossfrom theinvestment in the productionof wood pellets andtheir exportsto Western Europeis largeonly at highprices forwood raw material.

Рассматривается применение метода имитационного моделирования по определению размера расчетной лесосеки. На примере нескольких вариантов определяется объем расчетной лесосеки в зависимости от различных методов ее исчисления. ; Under the effective legislation 4 approaches are applied in calculation of estimated allowable cut: uniform use cut, 1st, 2nd and integral cuts. The approach selection is determined first of all by forest age structure however the calculation is done for several decades ahead with regard to mature stand regeneration real time often it is not sufficient. To address this problem system dynamics and simulation modeling approach based on iThink. This software advantage is that a researcher should not have software and language skills. Simulation enables consideration of various factor impacts as well as their output impact rate. Spruce stand age structure 4 options in 3750 ha forest lot aged 81 years were sampled. The estimated allowable cut is defined for every option by various calculations. 1st age allowable cut was the most various among all age forest age structure options. It varied within the 30 year period gradually reaching a balanced condition equaling uniform utilization cut estimated by rotation upper limit. This balance is reached over 2 thinning limits. 1 specifics of addressed estimated allowable cur calculations needs highlighting. Reliable annual cut value that is defined over time significantly lower the integral estimated cut than in 1st and 2nd age cuts. The offered approach enables annual specification of estimated allowable cut that is urgent in its under use conditions as well as opportunities to analyze various forest management strategies. Literature cited Rosleshoz order of 27.05.2011 «On estimated allowable cut procedure».