Suchergebnisse

Inhalt: 1 Einleitung 2 Überblick über den Stand der Forschung 3 Theoretische Grundlagen 3.1 Transmissionsmechanismus Vermögen, Vermögenspreise und Konsum 3.2 Vermögenseffekte im Konsum 4 Modellierung der Vermögenseffekte im Konsum 4.1 Intertemporale Budgetbeschränkung 4.2 Permanente Einkommenshypothese (PIH) 4.3 Lebenszyklushypothese (LCH) 4.4 Lebenszyklushypothese als multikointegrierte Konsumfunktion 4.5 Trägheitsannahme des Konsumwachstums 5 Ökonometrische Methodologie 5.1 EG2 von Engle und Granger 5.2 Dynamisches OLS nach Stock und Watson 5.3 Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodell (VECM) und Johansen-Verfahren 6 Statistische Datenbasis 7 Empirische Ergebnisse 7.1 Empirische Ergebnisse ausgewählter Studien 7.2 Empirische Ergebnisse für Deutschland 7.2.1 Test auf Integration 7.2.2 Ergebnisse EG2 7.2.3 Ergebnisse DOLS 7.2.4 Test auf Parameterstabilität 7.2.5 Ergebnisse VECM 7.2.6 Ergebnisse Impuls-Antwort-Analyse 7.3 Zusammenfassung der empirischen Ergebnisse 8 Geldpolitische Implikationen 9 Zusammenfassung

A transfer from a richer individual to a poorer one seems to be the most intuitive and straightforward way of reducing income inequality in a society. However, can such a transfer reduce the welfare of the society? We show that a rich-to-poor transfer can induce a response in the individuals' behaviors which actually exacerbates, rather than reduces, income inequality as measured by the Gini index. We use this result as an input in assessing the social welfare consequence of the transfer. Measuring social welfare by Sen's social welfare function, we show that the transfer reduces social welfare. These two results are possible even for individuals whose utility functions are relatively simple (namely, at most quadratic in all terms) and incorporate a distaste for low relative income. We first present the two results for a population of two individuals. We subsequently provide several generalizations. We show that our argument holds for a population of any size, and that the choice of utility functions which trigger this response is not singular - the results obtain for an open set of the space of admissible utility functions. In addition, we show that a rich-to-poor transfer can exacerbate inequality when we employ Lorenz-domination, and that it can decrease social welfare when we draw on any increasing, Schur-concave welfare function.

When stock or bond prices drop sharply we are told that the nation''s wealth has fallen. Some commentators go beyond such a vague statement and calculate how many billions of dollars of wealth have been wiped out by multiplying the percentage change in stock prices or bond prices by the previous value of outstanding stocks or bonds. This appears sensible and indeed obvious, and if the figure looks huge, for example, $2.1 trillion (about one quarter of annual GDP) for one week in April 2000, so be it. Yet, when we look at the real economy it also seems obvious that the nation''s stock of capital is the same as it was the day before the market crashed. Our factories can turn out just as many shoes, ships and tons of sealing wax as before, and our fields are just as fruitful. To be sure, if bond prices fall the value of claims we have on each other is less, but except for our net claims on (or liabilities) to foreigners, the gains of debtors and the losses of creditors wash out when we look at the nation as a whole. Even the change in the value of government debt washes out because the debt is the liability of taxpayers.

Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit den Wirkungen permanenter staatlicher Budgetdefizite auf die intertemporale Allokation. Im Rahmen einer Partialanalyse wird der Einfluss der Staatsverschuldung auf die privaten Spar- und Investitionsentscheidungen untersucht. Unter Zugrundelegung eines neoklassischen Wachstumsmodells werden die Auswirkungen der Staatsverschuldung auf Kapitalakkumulation, Steuerlast pro Kopf und Konsum pro Kopf dargestellt. Dabei werden Vermögenseffekte in der Konsumfunktion und staatliche Investitionen berücksichtigt.

Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit den Wirkungen permanenter staatlicher Budgetdefizite auf die intertemporale Allokation. Im Rahmen einer Partialanalyse wird der Einfluss der Staatsverschuldung auf die privaten Spar- und Investitionsentscheidungen untersucht. Unter Zugrundelegung eines neoklassischen Wachstumsmodells werden die Auswirkungen der Staatsverschuldung auf Kapitalakkumulation, Steuerlast pro Kopf und Konsum pro Kopf dargestellt. Dabei werden Vermögenseffekte in der Konsumfunktion und staatliche Investitionen berücksichtigt.

This paper tracks the development of sectoral saving and borrowing in the US economy over the past 50 years. We show that the financial imbalances that erupted in the financial crisis of 2008 were long in the making and preceded the emergence of global imbalances in the 2000s. The record low household savings rate in the past decade was the product of two separate trends: a sharp fall in the asset acquisition of American households in the 1990s, and an explosion of mortgage borrowing in the 2000s. We present novel disaggregated estimates of the wealth effect on savings. We show that households reduce active savings in response to gains in financial wealth and increase borrowing with rising housing wealth. Finally, we argue that the American credit boom of the 2000s had few direct links to reserve accumulation in emerging markets. The mortgage boom was financed by the US financial sector which intermediated foreign funds from private sources. -- savings rate ; flow of funds ; wealth effects ; financial instability ; global imbalances ; current account deficit