Suchergebnisse

In the winter of 1941-1942 26 professional people & public figures tried to predict the course of events in the following decade & the state of the world in 1952. These predictions were obtained by H. Cantril by requesting the R to 'write out your general predictions of how things will turn out within the next 10 yrs.' A summary of the findings of an over-all content analysis & a rank ordering of the accurate predictions are presented. Data from letters antedating & post-dating Pearl Harbor were coded separately. A prediction involves the selection of past experiences which seem to be relevant to the developing sequence of events, but it is always a guess & successful prediction depends on an ability to anticipate novelty. Immediate experience, such as Pearl Harbor, tends to influence the nature of prediction, its direction & emphasis. Examples of the wishfulfilling character of predictions are given. Frustration only sometimes appears valuable in prognostication. The characteristics of good prediction are noted. All of the foreign-born people in the sample were successful predictors; these are seen as people who were prevented from growing strong pol'al & ideological roots. The successful predictors were characterized by a wide scope of experience & a broad cultural background. Various predictions are closely interrelated, & the 2 most accurate documents pose several alternative sequences rather than oversimplifying. Good predictions are cautious since they take emergence into account & they are not strongly motivated. It is finally noted that a prediction may be correct because the predictor's premises are valid or because of the irrelevant fact that his att's & wishes happen to coincide with the course of events. J. D. Twight.

Contents -- Introduction -- Types of Methods -- Critical Assessments of the Methods -- Evaluating Assumptions -- Forecast Accuracy -- Forecasting Method Robustness -- Data Problems -- Measurement Problems -- Social Processes and Social Forecasting Method Selection -- R & D for New Social Forecasting Methods -- User Forecasting Requirements -- Solving Problems with Forecasting -- Costs -- Conclusion -- Selected References

"This book examines the foremost techniques of hidden link predictions in stochastic social networks. It deals, principally, with methods and approaches that involve similarity index techniques, matrix factorization, reinforcement models, graph representations and community detections"--

Klappentext: How can dystopian futures help provide the motivation to change the ways we operate day to day? Futures Beyond Dystopia takes the view that the dominant trends in the world suggest a long-term decline into unliveable Dystopian futures. The human prospect is therefore very challenging, yet the perception of dangers and dysfunctions is the first step towards dealing with them. The motivation to avoid future dangers is matched by the human need to create plans and move forward. These twin motivations can be very powerful and help to stimulate the fields of Futures Studies and Applied Foresight. This analysis of current Futures practice is split into six sections: * The Case Against Hegemony * Expanding and Deepening a Futures Frame * Futures Studies and the Integral Agenda * Social Learning through Applied Foresight * Strategies and Outlooks * The Dialectic of Foresight and Experience. This fascinating book will stimulate anyone involved in Futures work around the world and will challenge practitioners and others to re-examine many of their assumptions, methodologies and practices.