This study describes how severity of illness may refine the definition of ambulatory care–sensitive conditions, or ACSCs. Hospital discharge abstract data from Philadelphia were combined with census data to develop population-based adjusted rates of hospitalization for diabetes and asthma, two ACSCs. By stratifying ACSC hospitalization by severity of illness, variations were observed by age, race, and gender. Minority groups may be at higher risk for less access to outpatient primary care and were observed to have higher rates of more severely ill, Stage 3 hospitalization. Geographic map displays indicated wide ranges of age-sex-adjusted rates for high-severity hospitalization in the five-county Philadelphia region. This refined ACSC measure may help to identify specific groups and clinical conditions within a population to assist health care planners estimate health care resources such as facilities, manpower, and programs, as well as to evaluate their outcomes.
Objective: The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive evidence on risk factors for transmission, disease severity and COVID-19 related deaths in Africa. Design: A systematic review has been conducted to synthesise existing evidence on risk factors affecting COVID-19 outcomes across Africa. Data sources Data were systematically searched from MEDLINE, Scopus, MedRxiv and BioRxiv. Eligibility criteria: Studies for review were included if they were published in English and reported at least one risk factor and/or one health outcome. We included all relevant literature published up until 11 August 2020. Data extraction and synthesis: We performed a systematic narrative synthesis to describe the available studies for each outcome. Data were extracted using a standardised Joanna Briggs Institute data extraction form. Results: Fifteen articles met the inclusion criteria of which four were exclusively on Africa and the remaining 11 papers had a global focus with some data from Africa. Higher rates of infection in Africa are associated with high population density, urbanisation, transport connectivity, high volume of tourism and international trade, and high level of economic and political openness. Limited or poor access to healthcare are also associated with higher COVID-19 infection rates. Older people and individuals with chronic conditions such as HIV, tuberculosis and anaemia experience severe forms COVID-19 leading to hospitalisation and death. Similarly, high burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, high prevalence of tobacco consumption and low levels of expenditure on health and low levels of global health security score contribute to COVID-19 related deaths. Conclusions: Demographic, institutional, ecological, health system and politico-economic factors influenced the spectrum of COVID-19 infection, severity and death. We recommend multidisciplinary and integrated approaches to mitigate the identified factors and strengthen effective prevention strategies.
Improved risk stratification and prognosis prediction in sepsis is a critical unmet need. Clinical severity scores and available assays such as blood lactate reflect global illness severity with suboptimal performance, and do not specifically reveal the underlying dysregulation of sepsis. Here, we present prognostic models for 30-day mortality generated independently by three scientific groups by using 12 discovery cohorts containing transcriptomic data collected from primarily community-onset sepsis patients. Predictive performance is validated in five cohorts of community-onset sepsis patients in which the models show summary AUROCs ranging from 0.765-0.89. Similar performance is observed in four cohorts of hospital-acquired sepsis. Combining the new gene-expression-based prognostic models with prior clinical severity scores leads to significant improvement in prediction of 30-day mortality as measured via AUROC and net reclassification improvement index These models provide an opportunity to develop molecular bedside tests that may improve risk stratification and mortality prediction in patients with sepsis. ; y NIGMS Glue Grant Legacy Award R24GM102656. J.F.B.-M., R.A., and E.T. were supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grants EMER07/050, PI13/02110, PI16/01156). R.J.L. was supported by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under award number UL1TR001417. The CAPSOD study was supported by NIH (U01AI066569, P20RR016480, HHSN266200400064C). P.K. is supported by grants from Bill Melinda Gates Foundation, R01 AI125197-01, 1U19AI109662, and U19AI057229, outside the submitted work. The GAinS study was supported by the National Institute for Health Research through the Comprehensive Clinical Research Network for patient recruitment; Wellcome Trust (Grants 074318 [to J.C.K.], and 090532/Z/09/Z [core facilities Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics including High-Throughput Genomics Group]); European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013)/ERC Grant agreement no. 281824 (to J.C.K.), the Medical Research Council (98082 [to J.C.K.]); UK Intensive Care Society; and NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. The Duke HAI study was supported by a research agreement between Duke University and Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics, Inc. According to the terms of the agreement, representatives of the sponsor had an opportunity to review and comment on a draft of the manuscript. The authors had full control of the analyses, the preparation of the manuscript, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. For the University of Florida 'P50' Study, data were obtained from the Sepsis and Critically Illness Research Center (SCIRC) at the University of Florida College of Medicine, which is supported in part by NIGMS P50 GM111152. This work was supported by Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Army Research Office through Grant W911NF-15-1-0107. T
Abstract Communicating the threat of severe winter weather is not simply a matter of the number of inches of snow or degrees of cold; it also considers the potential impacts of the storm. The winter storm severity index (WSSI) is a graphical product from the National Weather Service that presents anticipated impacts from forecast winter weather for a range of winter conditions. To assess the utility of the WSSI and how an impact-based winter weather forecast product is interpreted and used to inform decision-making, a mixed-methods social science study was conducted by the Nurture Nature Center in coordination with the Weather Prediction Center. Through focus groups and surveys, testing in the Hydrometeorological Testbed, and iterations on design and category descriptions, several themes emerged about how professional stakeholders understand, interpret, and use this product for communicating about impending winter weather. There is perceived utility in the WSSI for situational awareness and as part of a package of other information to inform decision-making. However, there is variability in interpretations of impacts, resulting from differences in geography, community readiness, and experience, among other factors, which creates complications in communicating the forecast. Furthermore, many users seek quantities related to winter weather, suggesting that education about what impact-based products include and what data are shown is necessary. Understanding the factors that influence perspectives on impact levels and the variable needs for winter weather information across regions improves forecasters' abilities to effectively communicate and provide critical information that helps end users prepare for severe winter weather.
Significance Statement Effectively communicating severe winter weather is critical to supporting communities in being prepared for and mitigating weather-related losses and damages. The winter storm severity index focuses on impacts to provide awareness of impending winter weather, information that is useful but not always interpreted consistently, requiring an understanding of factors influencing perspectives on impact levels and user education.
BACKGROUND: The risk/benefit of initiating ART in primary HIV infection (PHI) is unclear. The benefits are more likely to outweigh the risks in patients with severe PHI. An accepted definition of severe PHI is, however, lacking. METHODS: CASCADE patients with HIV test interval <6 months were classified as severe and non-severe PHI based on whether the following traits were recorded in the first 6 months following seroconversion: severe specific pre-defined symptoms, central nervous system-implicated illness, and ≥1, ≥2 CD4<350 (and <500) cells/mm(3). For each definition, we used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox survival models to compare time to AIDS/death, censoring at the earlier of last clinic visit or 1/1/1997, when combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) became available. RESULTS: Among 1108 included patients mostly males (85%) infected through sex between men (71%), 366 were diagnosed with AIDS/died. The risk of AIDS/death was significantly higher for individuals with severe symptoms, those with ≥1 CD4<350 cells/mm(3) or ≥2 CD4 <500 cells/mm(3) in the first 6 months [aHR (95% confidence interval) 2.1 (1.4,3.2), 2.0 (1.5,2.7), and 2.3, (1.5-3.5) respectively]. Median [interquantile range] survival for patients with ≥2, ≥1 and no CD4<350 cells/mm(3) within 6 months of seroconversion was 3.9 [2.7,6.5], 5.4 [4.5,8.4] and 8.1 [4.3,10.3] years, respectively. The diagnosis of CNS-implicated symptoms was rare and did not appear to be prognostic. CONCLUSION: One CD4 count <350 or two <500 cells/mm(3) within 6 months of seroconversion and/or severe illness in PHI may be useful early indicators of individuals at high risk of disease progression. ; The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under EuroCoord grant agreement no. 260694. Sara Lodi is holder of a Juan de la Cierva Fellowship (grant number JCI 2010-08151). There are no current external funding sources for this study. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ; Sí
