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We examine how groups fall prey to the sequence effect when they make choices based on informed assessments of complex situations, for example, when evaluating research and development (R&D) projects. The core argument is that the temporal sequence of selection matters because projects that appear in a sequence following a funded project are themselves less likely to receive funding. Building on the idea that selecting R&D projects is a demanding process that drains participants' mental and emotional resources, we further theorize the moderating effect of the influence of the timing of the panel meeting on the sequence effect. We test these conjectures using a randomization in sequence order from several rounds of R&D project selection at a leading professional service firm. We find robust support for the existence of a sequence effect in R&D as well as for the moderating effect. We further explore different explanations for the sequence effect and how it passes from the individual to the panel. These findings have broader implications for the literature on innovation and search in general and on group decision making for R&D, specifically, as they suggest that a previously overlooked dimension affects selection outcomes.

'Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht, inwieweit die Geschwindigkeit bei der Beantwortung von Einstellungsfragen als valider Indikator für die Einstellungsstärke der Befragten und als zuverlässiger Prädiktor für deren Beeinflussbarkeit durch Fragenreihefolgeeffekte angesehen werden kann. Dabei werden die Abweichungen der Antwortlatenzen bei den Zielitems von der 'normalen' Antwortgeschwindigkeit der jeweiligen Befragten und damit eine standardisierte Version dieses Indikators herangezogen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen erstens die konvergente Validität der Antwortlatenzen als Operationalisierung der Einstellungsstärke. Diese korrelieren in der erwarteten Art mit der Extremität der Einstellungsangaben und der Antwortsicherheit als 'konventionelle' Indikatoren der Einstellungsstärke. Weiterhin finden sich klare Belege für die Konstruktvalidität der Antwortlatenzen. Im Rahmen eines 'Split Ballot'-Experimentes bewerten die Befragten entweder zuerst die generelle Liberalisierung des Schwangerschaftsabbruchs oder dessen Freigabe im Falle einer Vergewaltigung. Bei beiden Items finden sich Kontrasteffekte, deren Stärke sich jeweils in signifikantem Ausmaß durch die Antwortgeschwindigkeit der Befragten vorhersagen lässt. Es zeigt sich, dass die Befragten erst dann in zunehmendem Umfang durch Fragenreihenfolgeeffekte beeinflusst werden, wenn ihre Antwortgeschwindigkeit und damit die Einstellungsstärke unter einen bestimmten Schwellenwert fällt. Die beiden alternativen Indikatoren der Einstellungsstärke erweisen sich dagegen in dieser Hinsicht entweder als irrelevant, oder ihre Prognosekraft wird bei gleichzeitiger Kontrolle der Antwortgeschwindigkeit vollständig absorbiert.' (Autorenreferat)

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate whether changing the sequence of proposals during negotiations and changing the order of the responding options might minimize the endowment effect, therefore producing a better chance at reaching an agreement.Design/methodology/approachThe study includes four versions of questionnaires comprised of two identical proposals (one gain and one loss) in reversal sequences, and two identical reimbursement options in reverse order. The four versions aim to allow for a combined investigation of the impact of proposals sequence and the reimbursement options sequence on the endowment effect. Each of the study's 814 participants received one of the four questionnaires. Based on both framing and contrast effects, it is hypothesized that the sequence of proposals – when the first one is conceived as a loss and the second as a gain – has a moderating impact on the endowment effect.FindingsThe findings show a significant endowment effect as a high demand inducer in negotiations, and a significant impact of the proposals sequence as a factor that reduces the endowment effect. However, no significant impact of the responding options' order on the endowment effect was found.Practical implicationsThe study contributes to the understanding of the impact of proposal sequence in negotiations. Negotiators who understand how to utilize the proposals sequence may lead the negotiation to a concessionary atmosphere.Originality/valueThe paper focuses on the application of the framing and contrast effects to the negotiation process, as well as highlighting the negotiation process, whereby negotiators' insight about the proposal sequence may lead to a better outcome.

AbstractCatastrophe bonds (cat bond in short) are an alternative risk‐transfer instrument used to transfer peril‐specific financial risk from governments, financial institutions, or (re)insurers, to the capital market. Current approaches for cat bond pricing are calibrated on seismic mainshocks, and thus do not account for potential effects induced by earthquake sequences. This simplifying assumption implies that damage arises from mainshocks only, while aftershocks yield no damage. Postearthquake field surveys reveal that this assumption is inaccurate. For example, in the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake sequence and 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake sequence, aftershocks were responsible for higher economic losses when compared to those caused by mainshocks. This article proposes a time‐dependent aggregate loss model that takes into account seismicity clustering and damage accumulation effects in the computation of damage. The model is calibrated on the seismic events recorded during the recent 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake sequence. Furthermore, the effects of earthquake sequence on cat bond pricing is explored by implementing the proposed model on five Italian municipalities. The investigation showed that neglecting time‐dependency may lead to higher difference (up to 45%) in the cat bond price when compared to standard approaches.