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Seasonal hunger induced by agricultural seasonality is often a characteristic feature of rural poverty. The evidence of seasonal distress in many agrarian societies can be found in the narratives of economic historians. With agricultural diversification made possible through technological breakthroughs in many parts of the developing world, the severity of seasonal stress and adversities has been reduced considerably, if not altogether eliminated. In certain agricultural settings, however, the seasonality of poverty and hunger, along with the associated seasonal shortfalls in income and consumption, is still a policy quagmire. The problem gets more complicated when agricultural seasonality is locked into a cycle of endemic poverty, seasonal hunger, and risk of further impoverishment. Poverty and seasonality may also reinforce each other through various other forces that create and sustain both. The thrust of policy needs to be to break this interlocking cycle of poverty and seasonality. The book has nine chapters. Chapter two looks at the key conceptual issues and presents a global perspective on the challenge of addressing seasonal hunger. Chapter three brings Bangladesh's reality to the fore regarding seasonal poverty and food insecurity and the vulnerability of the northwest region. Chapter four analyzes the vulnerability of households to seasonal hunger, their coping strategies, and the extent to which income seasonality affects seasonal poverty and food deprivation. Chapter five reports some findings for both the Rangpur region and the country as a whole regarding the effects of policies and programs on poverty and food deprivation. The findings reported in the next three chapters are mainly related to the Rangpur region only. Chapter six examines the issue of seasonal migration in the context of mitigating seasonal deprivation. In chapter seven, the impact of the social safety-net programs is tested, whereas the effectiveness of microfinance is assessed in chapter eight. The concluding chapter, chapter ...

The government continues to carry out poverty reduction strategies in Indonesia, especially in West Java Province. West Java Province is a province that has the most populous population in Indonesia. This will affect the level of welfare and the amount of poverty. The strategy undertaken is inseparable from accurate poverty data and is available from year to year. Even from the available data, the government can forecast the number of poor people in the coming years. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is one of forecasting methods. SARIMA is the development of the ARIMA model which has a seasonal effect. Based on the results of the study, that poverty data forecasting in the province of West Java using the SARIMA method obtained SARIMA model (0,1,1) (1,1,1)4. This model is the best model for forecasting data with an R-Squared value of 98%, Mean Square Error is 7.705.5800.000 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error IS 2,81%. It's means this SARIMA model is very good in predicting poverty data in West Java Province.

Seasonal hunger may result from seasonality of agriculture when households fail to smooth income and consumption. Using household survey data from the north-west region of Bangladesh, this article examines alternative measures of seasonal hunger, and provides some evidence to support policies and programmes needed to mitigate seasonal hunger. The results suggest that a large majority of food-vulnerable households are the perpetual poor, as opposed to a small percentage of households who are subject to food deprivation only during the lean period. Findings suggest that government safety net programmes and microcredit provide a cushion for the poor to stave off seasonal hunger.

Transformation processes in the mode of agricultural production can significantly influence both, the farmers' and the labourers' social welfare. Active promotion of new forms of agricultural production through Governments and NGOs has to be in line with their policies. In the example of Bangladesh poverty reduction is the principle concern of rural development policies. Hence, an ex-ante evaluation to determine an agricultural project's impact on the rural people's livelihoods is a central precondition prior to the implementation of such a project. In this working paper an agricultural pilot project was analysed, which is going to be implemented in a vast area of Northern Bangladesh. Through agricultural extension a short-duration paddy variety, early planting dates, and mechanization of the plantation process are being promoted. This allows harvest of paddy one month ahead of current practice. Major positive welfare changes can be expected for the farmers, especially since earlier plantation of subsequent crops leads to higher yields. The labourers' social welfare will be affected by two aspects. Since mechanization is labour displacing, the overall employment is expected to decrease. Secondly, a positive effect of the project is expected because of the high seasonality of employment opportunities in the region. Harvest will take place in the current agricultural lean season, which corresponds to the period of seasonal food crisis. Hence, harvest is shifted to that period, when labourers are most in need of it. The expected change in social welfare of the farmers and the labours was determined independently by applying cost benefit analysis. Farmers are expected to be the winners of the project, while the labourers' loss in seasonality cannot be compensated by the benefit from smoothened seasonality. The working paper will discuss in how far normative development objectives of the implementing organizations are in line with the reality of the project, which favours those considered being less poor (farmers) and disfavours those considered being more poor (labourers). Additionally, an alternative project idea will be analysed and discussed, which does not mechanize agriculture and therefore has a less widening effect on rural income distribution.