Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
Nowadays the production systems are linear and the consumption patterns are essentially based on products with a short life cycle, which contribute to increase the demand for raw materials and environmental impacts. The Circular Economy (CE) is playing a major role among scholars and practitioners. Many aspects are now defining this new trending paradigm such as the roles of product development, transformation and remanufacturing/recycling, and/or management of waste, ensuring the economic and environmental benefits. The increasing demand causes instability of the prices and markets, and there is also the risk of supply rupture. This is very unsustainable and puts at risk countries' development. In this work we analyze and assess some EU critical raw material (CRM), considering existing global reserves and production. Correlation between several parameters was also analyzed. Under this assumption one scenario was considered to assess the depletion of two CRM. China is the main supplier in 15 out of 25 CRM considered in this analysis and its average percentage is 65%. Phosphate rock presents the highest value and antimony the lowest for depletion indicator. It was possible to conclude that no significant correlation was found between depletion, self-sufficiency and economic importance indicators. ; The Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT) , (Project UID/QUI/50006/2013) is acknowledged for the financial funding. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Nowadays the production systems are linear and the consumption patterns are essentially based on products with a short life cycle, which contribute to increase the demand for raw materials and environmental impacts. The Circular Economy (CE) is playing a major role among scholars and practitioners. Many aspects are now defining this new trending paradigm such as the roles of product development, transformation and remanufacturing/recycling, and/or management of waste, ensuring the economic and environmental benefits. The increasing demand causes instability of the prices and markets, and there is also the risk of supply rupture. This is very unsustainable and puts at risk countries' development. In this work we analyze and assess some EU critical raw material (CRM), considering existing global reserves and production. Correlation between several parameters was also analyzed. Under this assumption one scenario was considered to assess the depletion of two CRM. China is the main supplier in 15 out of 25 CRM considered in this analysis and its average percentage is 65%. Phosphate rock presents the highest value and antimony the lowest for depletion indicator. It was possible to conclude that no significant correlation was found between depletion, self-sufficiency and economic importance indicators.
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
The implementation of climate policies is often hindered by a lack of acceptability as well as the lack of long-term vision of stakeholders. Mitigation scenarios exercises allow the debate; however the scenario design process lacks transparency and stakeholders' (and citizens') involvement, which leads to a lack of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of mitigation scenarios. This paper presents a process for the collaborative design of an "acceptable" mitigation scenario through a public dialogue involving fifty stakeholders. Stakeholders selected the mitigation policies and measures they deemed acceptable. They significantly contributed to the development of the scenario methodology as well, by defining its specifications including data transparency, sensitivity analysis and the need to clarify certain types of economic and financial impacts for the evaluation of Factor 4 scenarios. The acceptable policies were integrated into the hybrid CGE model Imaclim-R France. This modeling platform, designed for the dialogue between modelers, stakeholders and experts, evaluates the social, economic and financial impact of climate policies. This attempt at a methodology exemplifies a collaborative scenario design, thereby proving that such a process can be implemented. The scenario based on the measures that stakeholders deemed acceptable reduce CO2 emissions by 68% by 2050 compared to 1990, which is a result close to the target of the Factor 4 (75%). The measures to reduce emissions are beneficial for employment and economic growth, except in the short term. They can also reduce rapidly and permanently the households' budget dedicated to energy services. Finally, the financial assessment of measures is positive throughout the period. This result is a solid foundation on which to build the acceptability of mitigation trajectories. Beyond the scenario, the methodological innovation offers the means to increase the involvement of stakeholders in decision-making. ; Cet article trouve son origine dans un double constat : le déficit d'acceptabilité des politiques climatiques d'une part et le déficit de crédibilité, de légitimité et d'appropriation des scénarios de réduction d'émission de gaz à effet de serre d'autre part. Pour répondre à ces limites, nous avons élaboré, au travers d'une concertation associant une cinquantaine de parties prenantes et une cinquantaine d'experts sectoriels, un processus de co-construction d'un scénario " acceptable " de réduction des émissions de CO2. Les parties prenantes ont sélectionné les politiques et les mesures qu'ils considèrent comme acceptables. Celles-ci ont également contribué largement à la méthodologie d'élaboration du scénario par la définition d'un cahier des charges qui inclut la nécessaire transparence des données, des tests de sensibilité et la nécessité d'expliciter certains types d'impacts économiques et financiers nécessaires à l'évaluation des trajectoires facteur 4. L'ensemble des politiques considérées comme acceptables est intégré dans le modèle technico-économique Imaclim-R France. Cette plateforme de modélisation adaptée au dialogue entre modélisateurs et partie prenantes ou experts, évalue les impacts sociaux, économiques et financiers de politiques climatiques. Cet exercice de co-construction de scénario fondé sur la concertation alimentant les paramètres d'un modèle technico-économique, fournit une preuve méthodologique par l'exemple qu'un tel processus peut être mis en place. Le scénario reposant sur les politiques et mesures que les parties prenantes considèrent comme acceptables permet de réduire de 68% les émissions de CO2 en 2050 par rapport à 1990, résultat proche de l'objectif de Facteur 4 (soit 75%). Les mesures de réduction des émissions, dont la plus emblématique est la taxe carbone, sont bénéfiques pour l'emploi et la croissance économique, sauf à court terme. Elles permettent en outre de réduire rapidement et durablement le budget des ménages dédié aux services énergétiques. Enfin, le bilan financier agrégé des mesures s'avère positif dès le début de la période. Ce résultat constitue un socle solide sur lequel construire l'acceptabilité des trajectoires Facteur 4.
The implementation of climate policies is often hindered by a lack of acceptability as well as the lack of long-term vision of stakeholders. Mitigation scenarios exercises allow the debate; however the scenario design process lacks transparency and stakeholders' (and citizens') involvement, which leads to a lack of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of mitigation scenarios. This paper presents a process for the collaborative design of an "acceptable" mitigation scenario through a public dialogue involving fifty stakeholders. Stakeholders selected the mitigation policies and measures they deemed acceptable. They significantly contributed to the development of the scenario methodology as well, by defining its specifications including data transparency, sensitivity analysis and the need to clarify certain types of economic and financial impacts for the evaluation of Factor 4 scenarios. The acceptable policies were integrated into the hybrid CGE model Imaclim-R France. This modeling platform, designed for the dialogue between modelers, stakeholders and experts, evaluates the social, economic and financial impact of climate policies. This attempt at a methodology exemplifies a collaborative scenario design, thereby proving that such a process can be implemented. The scenario based on the measures that stakeholders deemed acceptable reduce CO2 emissions by 68% by 2050 compared to 1990, which is a result close to the target of the Factor 4 (75%). The measures to reduce emissions are beneficial for employment and economic growth, except in the short term. They can also reduce rapidly and permanently the households' budget dedicated to energy services. Finally, the financial assessment of measures is positive throughout the period. This result is a solid foundation on which to build the acceptability of mitigation trajectories. Beyond the scenario, the methodological innovation offers the means to increase the involvement of stakeholders in decision-making. ; Cet article trouve son origine dans un double constat : le déficit d'acceptabilité des politiques climatiques d'une part et le déficit de crédibilité, de légitimité et d'appropriation des scénarios de réduction d'émission de gaz à effet de serre d'autre part. Pour répondre à ces limites, nous avons élaboré, au travers d'une concertation associant une cinquantaine de parties prenantes et une cinquantaine d'experts sectoriels, un processus de co-construction d'un scénario " acceptable " de réduction des émissions de CO2. Les parties prenantes ont sélectionné les politiques et les mesures qu'ils considèrent comme acceptables. Celles-ci ont également contribué largement à la méthodologie d'élaboration du scénario par la définition d'un cahier des charges qui inclut la nécessaire transparence des données, des tests de sensibilité et la nécessité d'expliciter certains types d'impacts économiques et financiers nécessaires à l'évaluation des trajectoires facteur 4. L'ensemble des politiques considérées comme acceptables est intégré dans le modèle technico-économique Imaclim-R France. Cette plateforme de modélisation adaptée au dialogue entre modélisateurs et partie prenantes ou experts, évalue les impacts sociaux, économiques et financiers de politiques climatiques. Cet exercice de co-construction de scénario fondé sur la concertation alimentant les paramètres d'un modèle technico-économique, fournit une preuve méthodologique par l'exemple qu'un tel processus peut être mis en place. Le scénario reposant sur les politiques et mesures que les parties prenantes considèrent comme acceptables permet de réduire de 68% les émissions de CO2 en 2050 par rapport à 1990, résultat proche de l'objectif de Facteur 4 (soit 75%). Les mesures de réduction des émissions, dont la plus emblématique est la taxe carbone, sont bénéfiques pour l'emploi et la croissance économique, sauf à court terme. Elles permettent en outre de réduire rapidement et durablement le budget des ménages dédié aux services énergétiques. Enfin, le bilan financier agrégé des mesures s'avère positif dès le début de la période. Ce résultat constitue un socle solide sur lequel construire l'acceptabilité des trajectoires Facteur 4.
The implementation of climate policies is often hindered by a lack of acceptability as well as the lack of long-term vision of stakeholders. Mitigation scenarios exercises allow the debate; however the scenario design process lacks transparency and stakeholders' (and citizens') involvement, which leads to a lack of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of mitigation scenarios. This paper presents a process for the collaborative design of an "acceptable" mitigation scenario through a public dialogue involving fifty stakeholders. Stakeholders selected the mitigation policies and measures they deemed acceptable. They significantly contributed to the development of the scenario methodology as well, by defining its specifications including data transparency, sensitivity analysis and the need to clarify certain types of economic and financial impacts for the evaluation of Factor 4 scenarios. The acceptable policies were integrated into the hybrid CGE model Imaclim-R France. This modeling platform, designed for the dialogue between modelers, stakeholders and experts, evaluates the social, economic and financial impact of climate policies. This attempt at a methodology exemplifies a collaborative scenario design, thereby proving that such a process can be implemented. The scenario based on the measures that stakeholders deemed acceptable reduce CO2 emissions by 68% by 2050 compared to 1990, which is a result close to the target of the Factor 4 (75%). The measures to reduce emissions are beneficial for employment and economic growth, except in the short term. They can also reduce rapidly and permanently the households' budget dedicated to energy services. Finally, the financial assessment of measures is positive throughout the period. This result is a solid foundation on which to build the acceptability of mitigation trajectories. Beyond the scenario, the methodological innovation offers the means to increase the involvement of stakeholders in decision-making. ; Cet article trouve son origine dans un double constat : le déficit d'acceptabilité des politiques climatiques d'une part et le déficit de crédibilité, de légitimité et d'appropriation des scénarios de réduction d'émission de gaz à effet de serre d'autre part. Pour répondre à ces limites, nous avons élaboré, au travers d'une concertation associant une cinquantaine de parties prenantes et une cinquantaine d'experts sectoriels, un processus de co-construction d'un scénario " acceptable " de réduction des émissions de CO2. Les parties prenantes ont sélectionné les politiques et les mesures qu'ils considèrent comme acceptables. Celles-ci ont également contribué largement à la méthodologie d'élaboration du scénario par la définition d'un cahier des charges qui inclut la nécessaire transparence des données, des tests de sensibilité et la nécessité d'expliciter certains types d'impacts économiques et financiers nécessaires à l'évaluation des trajectoires facteur 4. L'ensemble des politiques considérées comme acceptables est intégré dans le modèle technico-économique Imaclim-R France. Cette plateforme de modélisation adaptée au dialogue entre modélisateurs et partie prenantes ou experts, évalue les impacts sociaux, économiques et financiers de politiques climatiques. Cet exercice de co-construction de scénario fondé sur la concertation alimentant les paramètres d'un modèle technico-économique, fournit une preuve méthodologique par l'exemple qu'un tel processus peut être mis en place. Le scénario reposant sur les politiques et mesures que les parties prenantes considèrent comme acceptables permet de réduire de 68% les émissions de CO2 en 2050 par rapport à 1990, résultat proche de l'objectif de Facteur 4 (soit 75%). Les mesures de réduction des émissions, dont la plus emblématique est la taxe carbone, sont bénéfiques pour l'emploi et la croissance économique, sauf à court terme. Elles permettent en outre de réduire rapidement et durablement le budget des ménages dédié aux services énergétiques. Enfin, le bilan financier agrégé des mesures s'avère positif dès le début de la période. Ce résultat constitue un socle solide sur lequel construire l'acceptabilité des trajectoires Facteur 4.
When will automated vehicles come onto the market? This question has puzzled the automotive industry and society for years. The technology and its implementation have made rapid progress over the last decade, but the challenge of how to prove the safety of these systems has not yet been solved. Since a market launch without proof of safety would neither be accepted by society nor by legislators, much time and many resources have been invested into safety assessment in recent years in order to develop new approaches for an efficient assessment. This paper therefore provides an overview of various approaches, and gives a comprehensive survey of the so-called scenario-based approach. The scenario-based approach is a promising method, in which individual traffic situations are typically tested by means of virtual simulation. Since an infinite number of different scenarios can theoretically occur in real-world traffic, even the scenario-based approach leaves the question unanswered as to how to break these down into a finite set of scenarios, and find those which are representative in order to render testing more manageable. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review of related safety-assessment publications that deal precisely with this question. Therefore, this paper develops a novel taxonomy for the scenario-based approach, and classifies all literature sources. Based on this, the existing methods will be compared with each other and, as one conclusion, the alternative concept of formal verification will be combined with the scenario-based approach. Finally, future research priorities are derived.
The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high‐production‐volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario‐based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst‐case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.
