Suchergebnisse

June l977. ; Prepared by Energy Program of OTA with assistance of an advisory panel of 16 members from industry, Government, and Academia. ; Study undertaken in response to request from Senate Committee on Government Operations (now the Committee on Governmental Affairs) ; Includes bibliographical references. ; Mode of access: Internet.

Nuclear safeguards aim to confirm that nuclear materials and activities are used for peaceful purposes. To ensure that States are honoring their safeguards obligations, quantitative conclusions regarding nuclear material inventories and transfers are needed. Statistical analyses used to support these conclusions require uncertainty quantification (UQ), usually by estimating the relative standard deviation (RSD) in random and systematic errors associated with each measurement method. This paper has two main components. First, it reviews why UQ is needed in nuclear safeguards and examines recent efforts to improve both top-down (empirical) UQ and bottom-up (first-principles) UQ for calibration data. Second, simulation is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in measurement error RSDs on estimated nuclear material loss detection probabilities in sequences of measured material balances.

Front Cover -- Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Nonproliferation -- Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Nonproliferation -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Introduction: Nuclear Security and Global Challenges -- NEW NUCLEAR DANGERS -- PRAGUE AGENDA -- THE ROAD AHEAD -- PURPOSE OF THIS BOOK -- REFERENCES -- 1 - Nuclear Arms Reductions:The Status of Global Efforts -- 1 - Global Nuclear Arsenals, 1990-2018 -- INTRODUCTION -- GLOBAL STATUS OF NUCLEAR FORCES -- United States -- Russian Federation -- China -- France -- Britain -- India -- Pakistan -- Israel -- North Korea -- NATO -- NUCLEAR PLANS AND OPERATIONS -- CONCLUSIONS -- 2 - The Humanitarian Initiative and the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty -- INTRODUCTION -- THE EVOLUTION OF THE HUMANITARIAN INITIATIVE SINCE THE 2010 NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY REVIEW CONFERENCE -- DIVERGENT VIEWS ON THE HUMANITARIAN EFFORT -- Implications for the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Cycle and Nuclear Policy -- Engagement by the Nuclear Weapons States Could Contribute to Facilitating a Harmonious 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Rev... -- The Humanitarian Initiative and North Atlantic Treaty Organization Member States -- The Humanitarian Initiative Has Evolved as a Mechanism for Delegitimizing Nuclear Weapons -- 2016 Open-Ended Working Group: Consolidating Momentum toward Initiating a Ban on Nuclear Weapons -- The Role of Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Deterrence Remains -- CONCLUSIONS -- LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS -- 3 - Regional Initiatives Toward a Nuclear Weapons Free World: The Case of Nuclear Weapons Free Zones -- MAIN PROVISIONS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONES -- EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR WEAPON FREE ZONES -- Treaty of Tlatelolco -- Treaty of Rarotonga -- Treaty of Bangkok -- Mongolian NWFZ -- Treaty of Pelindaba -- Treaty of Semipalatinsk.