Suchergebnisse

The future international climate policy architecture will most likely consist of partial climate policy initiatives like the EU's Emission Trading System. Trade integration threatens to undermine these systems' environmental effectiveness by shifting emissions to other countries. We estimate a gravity model based on 103 countries and use it to simulate several such climate policy experiments. The model's parameters are structurally linked to empirical estimates, i.e. bilateral trade costs and the elasticity of substitution are consistent with the data. Unlike previous empirical work, the approach allows to quantify emission relocation in general equilibrium. With trade liberalization experiments, the model also allows to deliver a perspective on environmental aspects of hypothetical FTA formation. We find that an EU emission allowance price of 15 US-$ suffi ces to bring the EU on track for its Kyoto target but also leads to emission relocations of about 10% of the EU's emission savings.

Abstract Recent trade models with heterogeneous firms have changed the interpretation of gravity equations. Chaney (2008) shows that the effect of distance on the number of exporters and average exports depends on key parameters characterizing the elements of market structure. We use firm‐level export data to estimate the structural parameters of Chaney's model. Controlling for the fixed costs of exporting, our estimated parameters match, for 28 out of 34 industries, the model's theoretical predictions. Our industry parameters allow us to evaluate separately the effect of transport costs and tariffs on trade, without having to resort to detailed data on trade frictions.

In this article, we examine the impact of terrorist attacks on asylum-related migration flows. So far, the literature that examines the "push factors" such as terrorism that explain forced migration has omitted the fact that the vast majority of people forced to flee typically do so toward other locations within the country. The novel feature of our research is the estimation of a structural gravity equation that includes both international migration and internally displaced persons (IDP), a theoretically consistent framework that allows us to identify country-specific variables such as terror attacks. For that purpose, we use information on the number of asylum applications, the number of IDP, and the number of terrorist attacks in each country for a sample of 119 origin developing countries and 141 destination countries over 2009–2018. The empirical results reveal several interesting and policy-relevant traits. Firstly, forced migration abroad is still minimal compared to IDP, but globalization forces are pushing up the ratio. Secondly, terror violence has a positive and significant effect on asylum migration flows relative to the number of IDP. Thirdly, omitting internally displaced people biases downward the impact of terrorism on asylum applications. Fourthly, we observe regional heterogeneity in the effect of terrorism on asylum migration flows; in Latin America, terrorist attacks have a much larger impact on the number of asylum applications relative to IDP than in Asia or Africa.

This Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis is a complementary follow-up to the original Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis. It provides the most recent tools for analysis of trade policy using structural gravity models. Written by experts who have contributed to the development of theoretical and empirical methods in the academic gravity literature and who have rich practical experience in the field, this publication explains how to conduct partial equilibrium estimations as well as general equilibrium analysis with structural gravity models and contains practical guidance on how to apply these tools to concrete policy questions. This Advanced Guide has been developed to contribute to the enhancement of developing countries' capacity to analyse and implement trade policy. It is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as graduate students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research

Exploiting changes in the geography of economic integration in Europe, this paper uses detailed bilateral trade data for 50 sectors to carry out an econometric ex post evaluation of the trade cost effects of the United Kingdom's various arrangements with the European Union. The analysis reveals important heterogeneity across agreements, sectors, and within pairs. In particular, the EU's eastward enlargement or the EU-Korea trade agreement have lowered the UK's outward trade costs only relatively modestly. These asymmetries matter for the size and distribution of the welfare effects of Brexit – the withdrawal of the UK from EU agreements resulting into a return of trade costs to the situation quo ante. We make this point with the help of a modern multi-sector trade model that is able to capture inter- and intranational production networks. In line with other papers, the welfare costs of Brexit are higher in the UK than in most other EU countries. However, the considered asymmetries tend to attenuate overall costs while giving rise to substantial heterogeneity between EU27 members and sectors.

AbstractWe propose a simple method to identify the effects of unilateral and non‐discriminatory trade policies on bilateral trade within a theoretically consistent empirical gravity model. Specifically, we argue that structural gravity estimations should be performed with data that include not only international trade flows but also intra‐national trade flows. The use of intra‐national sales allows identification of the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies such as most favoured nation tariffs, even in the presence of exporter and importer fixed effects. A byproduct of our approach is that it can be used to recover estimates of the trade elasticity, a key parameter for quantitative trade models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques in the case of most favoured nation tariffs and "time to export" as representative non‐discriminatory determinants of trade on the importer and on the exporter side, respectively. Our methods can be extended to quantify the impact on trade of any country‐specific characteristics as well as any non‐trade policies.

Abstract only in English and French ; We propose a simple method to identify the effects of unilateral and non‐discriminatory trade policies on bilateral trade within a theoretically consistent empirical gravity model. Specifically, we argue that structural gravity estimations should be performed with data that include not only international trade flows but also intra‐national trade flows. The use of intra‐national sales allows identification of the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies such as most favoured nation tariffs, even in the presence of exporter and importer fixed effects. A byproduct of our approach is that it can be used to recover estimates of the trade elasticity, a key parameter for quantitative trade models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques in the case of most favoured nation tariffs and "time to export" as representative non‐discriminatory determinants of trade on the importer and on the exporter side, respectively. Our methods can be extended to quantify the impact on trade of any country‐specific characteristics as well as any non‐trade policies. = Évaluation de l'incidence des politiques commerciales non discriminatoires au sein de modèles de gravité structurels. Dans un modèle de gravité empirique théoriquement cohérent, nous proposons une méthode simple pour identifier les effets des politiques commerciales unilatérales et non discriminatoires sur le commerce bilatéral. Plus précisément, nous affirmons que les estimations basées sur des modèles de gravité structurels doivent être réalisées en tenant compte non seulement des données relatives aux flux commerciaux internationaux, mais aussi nationaux. L'utilisation de données relatives aux ventes domestiques permet d'identifier les effets des politiques commerciales non discriminatoires, par exemple les tarifs douaniers de la nation la plus favorisée (NPF), même en présence d'effets fixes importateur et exportateur. Notre approche peut être utilisée pour redresser les estimations relatives à l'élasticité des échanges, un paramètre clé des modèles commerciaux quantitatifs. Nous démontrons l'efficacité de nos techniques dans le cadre des tarifs douaniers NPF et des délais d'exportation, facteurs déterminants, représentatifs et non discriminatoires sur le commerce, à la fois pour l'importateur et l'exportateur. Il possible d'étendre nos méthodes pour quantifier les effets de n'importe quelle caractéristique spécifique à un pays sur le commerce, ainsi que de n'importe quelle politique non commerciale. ; Benedikt Heid, Mario Larch, Yoto V. Yotov