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This chapter will discuss real-time forecasting in a macroeconomic policy context. I will begin by talking about the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a survey of private-sector forecasters. Next, I will discuss research on real-time data analysis and its importance in forecasting. Finally, I will discuss real-time forecasting in the 1990s.

The purpose of this paper is to stimulate thinking as to how we might produce timely and more reliable estimates of changes in the value of portfolios, price indices based on a portfolio of properties, and other aggregate measures of trends in property values. It is argued that a traditional market value appraisal of each individual property may not be necessary or optimal when the objective is to value portfolios or get a leading indicator of shifts in market value at an aggregate level. Rather, it is more important to use a critical mass of current market data that captures systematic movements in property values. Although a traditional market value appraisal is always more likely to capture the unique unsystematic characteristics of an individual property, automated valuation models using a database of valuation data may provide the best way to get real time interim updates of real estate portfolios and create more timely real estate indices.

Analyzes the relationship between globalization and democracy, focusing on procedural and cultural aspects, nation building process, role of the state, political economy, privatization, freedom of expression, and other issues. Draws upon essays published in French in Politique Etrangère (July-Sept. 2001) and Prologues (Summer-Fall 2001). Translated from French.

This paper argues that any assessment on the intentional stance of fiscal policy should be based upon all the information available to policymakers at the time of fiscal planning. In particular, real-time data on the discretionary fiscal policy "instrument", the structural primary balance, should be used in the estimation of fiscal policy reaction functions. In fact, the ex-post realization of discretionary fiscal measures may end up to be drastically different from what was planned by fiscal authorities in the budget law. When fiscal policy rules are estimated on real-time data, our results indicate that OECD countries often planned a counter-cyclical fiscal stance, especially during economic expansions, whereas conventional findings based on revised data point towards pro-cyclicality. This finding calls into question the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policies to fine tune the business cycle, as (pro-cyclical) actual outcomes tend to deviate from (counter-cyclical) fiscal plans. Furthermore, we test whether threshold effects might be at play in the reaction of fiscal policy to the economic cycle and to public debt accumulation. It emerges that the intended cyclical behavior of fiscal policy is characterized by two regimes, and that the switch between them is likely to occur when output is close to its equilibrium level. On the other hand, the use of revised data does not allow to identify any threshold effect.

In this paper, we deal with the problem of real-time coordination with the more general approach of reaching real-time agreements in MAS. Concretely, this work proposes a real-time argumentation framework in an attempt to provide agents with the ability of engaging in argumentative dialogues and come with a solution for their underlying agreement process within a bounded period of time. The framework has been implemented and evaluated in the domain of a customer support application. Concretely, we consider a society of agents that act on behalf of a group of technicians that must solve problems in a Technology Management Centre (TMC) within a bounded time. This centre controls every process implicated in the provision of technological and customer support services to private or public organisations by means of a call centre. The contract signed between the TCM and the customer establishes penalties if the specified time is exceeded. 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. ; This work is supported by the Spanish Government grants TIN2009-13839-C03-01 [CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010 CSD2007-00022, and TIN2012-36586-C03-01] and by the GVA project [PRO-METEO 2008/051]. ; Navarro Llácer, M.; Heras Barberá, SM.; Botti Navarro, VJ.; Julian Inglada, VJ. (2013). Towards real-time agreements. Expert Systems with Applications. 40(10):3906-3917. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.12.087 ; S ; 3906 ; 3917 ; 40 ; 10

This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide reliable estimates of the policy model coefficients associated with small central bank losses, in particular during periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty.