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The 1999 PLA Conference, which was hosted jointly by the American Enterprise Institute and the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute, convened September 10-12, 1999, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The goal of this conference was to comprehensively examine Chinese military modernization efforts. The meeting drew together leading experts on the PLA army, navy, air force, missile forces, and national defense industries and included PLA experts with opposing views on the pace and likely success of Chinese military modernization. Lively debate continually probed analytical differences and prejudices, as well as the sources of information upon which conclusions were based. The conference also included a preliminary yet timely examination of the PLA s potential application of information warfare. An initial discussion of the post-Kosovo implications for China s Taiwan strategy and China s foreign military relations also took place. ; https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1129/thumbnail.jpg

This volume is of special relevance in light of the profound changes occurring within the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA). China's desire to develop a military commensurate with its diverse interests is both legitimate and understandable. The challenge for U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM) is to understand how China will employ this growing military capability in support of its interests. The book addresses the uncertainty surrounding the potential direction of the PLA by examining three distinct focus areas: domestic, external, and technological drivers of PLA modernization; alternative futures for the PLA; and, implications for the region, world, and U.S.-China relations. The analysis provides an insightful perspective into the factors shaping and propelling the PLA's modernization, its potential future orientation ranging from internally focused to globally focused, and how the PLA's choices may impact China's relations with its neighbors and the world. ; https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1008/thumbnail.jpg

1. Introduction / Roy Kamphausen and R. Lincoln Hines 3. - 2. Whither China? Alternative Military Futures, 2020-30 / Lonnie D. Henley 31 . - Domestic, External, and Technological Drivers of People's Liberation Army Modernization 55 . - 3. Domestic Drivers of China's Future Military Modernization / Joseph Fewsmith 57 . - 4. People's Liberation Army Trajectories: International Drivers / Eric Heginbotham and Jacob Heim 83. - 5. Capacity For Innovation: Technological Drivers of China's Future Military Modernization / Richard A. Bitzinger and Michael Raska 129. - Alternative Futures for the People's Liberation Army 163. - 6. The People's Liberation Army in 2020-30 Focused on Regional Issues / Bernard D. Cole 165. - 7. A Global Expeditionary People's Liberation Army: 2025-30 / Oriana Skylar Mastro207. - 8. China's Military Force Posture Under Conditions of a Weakened People's Liberation Army: Alternative Military Futures, 2020-30 / Daniel Gearin and Erin Richter 235. - Implications for the Region, World, and U.S.-China Relations 267. - 9. Regional Dynamics in Response to Alternative PLA Development Vectors / Michael McDevitt 269. - 10. Implications: China in the International System / Phillip C. Saunders 301 . - 11. Implications for U.S.-China Strategic Dynamics / Robert Sutter 335