Suchergebnisse

Kesselkohle ist ein wichtiger Pfeiler der weltweiten Stromversorgung, dessen Verbrauchswachstum hauptsächlich von der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Asiens getrieben wird. Seit den frühen 2000er Jahren befindet sich der globale Kesselkohlehandel im Umbruch. Die Handelsflüsse wachsen stetig und es hat ein Konzentrationsprozess auf der Anbieterseite stattgefunden. Dies hat Befürchtungen über eine oligopolistische Marktstruktur geweckt. Die weitere Nutzung von Kesselkohle verursacht zudem erhebliche Umweltexternalitäten, insbesondere auf das Klima durch den Ausstoß von Kohlendioxid. Diese wichtigen Einflussfaktoren des Kesselkohlemarktes werden in der vorliegenden Dissertation mithilfe von numerischen partiellen Gleichgewichtsmodellen analysiert. Zuerst wird der internationale Kesselkohlehandel in der Jahren 2005 und 2006 mit dem COALMOD-Trade-Modell untersucht. Zum Zeitpunkt der höchsten Anbieterkonzentration in diesen Jahren kann kein Anhaltspunkt für strategisches Verhalten gefunden werden. Die Handelsflüsse und Preise im globalen Markt werden durch ein wettbewerbliches Modell besser abgebildet. Im liquideren atlantischen Markt, der in einer genaueren Untersuchung von 2003 bis 2006 analysiert wird, gibt es zwar Anzeichen einer punktuellen Marktmachtausübung. Dennoch kann für die folgende Modellentwicklung davon ausgegangen werden, dass Marktmacht mittelfristig kein strukturelles Problem im globalen Kesselkohlemarkt darstellt. Das umfangreiche COALMOD-World-Modell simuliert daher jährliche Handelsflüsse bis 2030 für den internationalen Handel und einheimische Märkte mit endogenen Investitionen in Abbau- und Transportinfrastruktur. Das Modell kann die Handelsflüsse für das Basisjahr 2006 nachbilden. Im Fall eines weiteren globalen Nachfrageanstiegs jenseits von 2015 kann es zu Transportengpässen sowie steigenden Beschaffungskosten kommen. Dies ist auf den großen Investitionsbedarf zurückzuführen, der nur schwer der Nachfrageentwicklung folgen kann. COALMOD-World wird im Weiteren genutzt, um das Wechselspiel zwischen Klimapolitiken und globalem Kesselkohlemarkt zu untersuchen. Eines der Ergebnisse ist, dass die Effektivität von regionalen Politiken erheblich beeinträchtigt werden kann, falls es zur Verschiebung der Nachfrage in Länder, die weniger oder keine klimapolitischen Anstrengungen tätigen, kommt. Diese Dissertation trägt zur energieökonomischen Literatur in vielerlei Hinsicht bei. Es wird eine aktuelle Marktmachtanalyse des internationalen Kesselkohlemarktes durchgeführt. Die Methodenforschung wird durch einen Beitrag zur Anwendung von "conjectural variations" zur Abbildung strategischen Verhaltens bereichert. Diese Modelle können problematisch sein, da sie nicht in jedem Fall eine Nash-Lösung abbilden. Deswegen wird ein Alternative für die Modellierung von Oligopolen mit einem wettbewerblichen Rand vorgeschlagen. Des Weiteren beinhaltet COALMOD-World mehrere methodische Neuerungen, z.B. einen endogenen Kostenmechanismus. Zudem ermöglicht das Modell eine Quantifizierung des theoretisch viel erforschten "Carbon Leakage" Effekts, hier über den globalen Kesselkohlemarkt. ; Steam coal is one of the main pillars of global electricity generation and its consumption is increasing, mainly driven by the growing Asian economies. Since the early 2000s the global steam coal trade underwent some significant changes. The international seaborne trade flows are growing rapidly and on the supply side a process of mergers and acquisitions increased market concentration, fueling fears that an oligopolistic market structure would develop similarly to the other fossil fuel markets (oil and natural gas). Concerning environmental externalities, the continued use of coal poses a serious problem especially because of the high carbon dioxide emissions that exacerbate climate change. This thesis presents several numerical partial equilibrium models to analyze these main issues affecting the market. In a first step the international seaborne trade of steam coal in the years 2005 and 2006 is investigated using the COALMOD-Trade model. At the time when market concentration on the supply side was the highest, we find no evidence of non-cooperative strategic behavior. The international trade flows and prices are better represented by a competitive model. However, a further analysis of the more mature and liquid Atlantic sub-market between 2003 and 2006 finds some evidence of market power exertion in this region. Yet we conclude that there is no structural market power problem in the mid-term for the global steam coal market. The large scale COALMOD-World model is thus based on the assumption of perfect competition and computes yearly trade flows until 2030 including both international trade and domestic markets as well as endogenous investments in mining and transport infrastructure. This model replicates actual trade flows for the base year 2006. One main finding is that, if global demand continues to increase after 2015, global supply costs may rise due to the large need of investments. COALMOD-World is also used to analyze the interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. We find that the effectiveness of regional policies reducing coal demand can be undermined by demand shifting to countries with less stringent climate goals. This thesis contributes to the energy economics literature in several respects. An updated analysis of market power in the global steam coal market is performed. Furthermore, a contribution is made concerning the use of conjectural variations to represent strategic interactions on a market, especially how conjectural variations models may fail to represent Nash equilibria. Thus, an alternative for the modeling of oligopoly markets with a competitive fringe is proposed. The COALMOD-World model contains novelties such as an endogenous cost mechanism that have not yet been used in other energy and resources market models. Finally, while the mechanisms of carbon leakage through energy markets are well understood in theory, we are able to provide a quantification for the order of magnitude using the COALMOD-World model.

This book addresses the gaps in undergraduate teaching of partial equilibrium analysis, providing a general equilibrium viewpoint to illustrate the assumptions underlying partial equilibrium welfare analysis. It remains unexplained, at least at the level of general economics teaching, in what sense partial equilibrium analysis is indeed a part of general equilibrium analysis. Partial equilibrium welfare analysis isolates a market for a single commodity from the rest of the economy, presuming that other things remain equal, and measures gains and losses by means of consumer surplus. This is a money metric that is supposed to be summable across individuals, recommending policy that maximizes the social surplus. But what justifies such apparently uni-dimensional practise? Within a general equilibrium framework, the assumption of no income effect is presented as the key condition, and substantive general equilibrium situations in which the condition emerges are presented. The analysis is extended to the case of uncertainty, in which the practice adopts aggregate expected consumer surplus, and scrutinizes when such practice is justified. Finally, the book illustrates partial equilibrium as an institutional artifact, meaning that institutional constraint induces individuals to behave as if they are in partial equilibrium. This volume forms an important contribution to the literature by researching why this disparity persists and the implications for economics education.

In formulating empirically tractable, economy-wide models, researchers are often forced to employ "convenient" functional forms that embody restrictively maintained hypotheses. Alternatively, flexible functional forms may be utilized in a partial equilibrium setting. Estimation & incorporation of flexible functions into computable general equilibrium models is considerably more demanding of research resources. Assuming that shortcuts will continue to be necessary for researchers attempting to respond to current policy problems, these two alternatives are compared using a general equilibrium model of the NY state economy to evaluate the relative performances of flexible partial equilibrium models & their more restrictive, general equilibrium counterpart. In this particular application, the former approach is found to dominate. 4 Tables, 1 Appendix, 21 References. HA

Title page -- Table of Contents -- Copyright -- Preface -- Part 1: Optimization -- Introduction -- Chapter 1: Properties of a Maximum -- Abstract -- 1.1 Continuity -- 1.2 Graphs and Continuity -- 1.3 Definite and Semidefinite Matrices -- 1.4 Derivatives -- 1.5 Homogeneity -- 1.6 Envelope Properties -- 1.7 Notes on Properties of Minima -- 1.8 Notes -- 1.9 Exercises -- Chapter 2: Properties of a Maximum Under Active Constraint -- Abstract -- 2.1 Lagrange Multiplier Rule -- 2.2 The "Envelope Theorem" With an Active Constraint -- 2.3 Second Order Condition -- 2.4 Comparative Statics

Incomplete financial reform in China is puzzling because Premier Zhu Rongji, a seemingly promarket technocrat, was largely insulated from explicitly rent-seeking pressure and leftist ideology when he carried out a massive restructuring of Chinese banks in 1997. Yet at the end of his tenure as premier, the financial sector continued to channel the bulk of savings toward the state. Given the complexity of Zhu's policies, we cannot begin analyzing them if we conceive reform as a neat, coherent policy shift. In this article, competing hypotheses of policy change are tested on Zhu's financial "reform," which is conceptualized as a bundle of discrete policies, each having different and at times contradictory impact on the economy. With this conceptualization, banking centralization, the Herculean efforts to digest nonperforming loans, and stagnation in interest rate and private banking reform can best be understood as a coherent political survival strategy.

The use of spreadsheets for numerical groundwater flow modeling is not a novelty; however, its potential in the classroom has not been emphasized enough. This Teachers Aid provides a step-by-step implementation of a steady-state, vertically integrated two-dimensional groundwater flow model in a confined irregular aquifer with boundary conditions of the three kinds and subject to pumping and recharge that will enhance the learning experience of students that are confronted for the first time with the numerical solution of the groundwater flow partial differential equation. ; This journal article is partially supported by the PRIMA Programme supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 1923 (InTheMED).

AbstractCharacteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a "generic" production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011