Suchergebnisse

AbstractAnalyses of complex decision‐making problems, involving tradeoffs among multiple criteria, is often undertaken using the PROMETHEE multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking technique. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods including the definition of criteria weights and the assignment of criteria performance values. Generalized criterion functions were incorporated in PROMETHEE to take the uncertainty in the criteria performance values into account; however, actors find it extremely difficult to select the generalized criterion functions and their associated thresholds for each criterion, which therefore results in an additional source of uncertainty. Furthermore, the generalized criterion functions do not address the subjectivity and uncertainty in the criteria weights, therefore, this form of uncertainty is usually assessed by sensitivity analysis methods. In this paper, a reliability‐based approach is proposed which enables the decision maker to examine the robustness of the solution obtained from PROMETHEE. The proposed approach therefore allows a decision to be made with confidence that the alternative chosen is the best performing alternative under the range of probable circumstances, without being required to define the generalized criterion functions. The proposed stochastic method involves defining the uncertainty in the input values using probability distributions, performing a reliability analysis by Monte Carlo simulation and undertaking a significance analysis using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. The outcomes of the approach include a distribution of the total flows of each alternative based upon the expected range of input parameter values. The benefits of the approach are illustrated by applying it to a renewable energy case study. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Banka iflasları bir ülkenin tüm ekonomisine büyük maliyetler yüklemektedir. Eğer banka performanslarına yönelik gerekli erken uyarılar politika yapıcılar, yetkililer ve kurumlarca zamanında elde edilirse banka iflasları engellenebilir ve daha sağlam bir finansal zemin sürdürülebilir hale gelir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye'deki mevduat bankalarının performansı ve iflas riskinin ölçülmesi ve finansal rasyolara dayanarak bankaların performans sıralamasını elde etmektir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada hali hazırda faaliyet gösteren bankaların hem 1997 ve 2003 yılları arasında batan bankalar ile hem de kendi aralarında kıyaslanmasını sağlayan bir veri seti kullanılmaktadır. Temel bulgularımız bazı özel bankaların ve tüm kamu bankalarının finansal rasyolar bağlamında oldukça güçlü durumda olduğunu ve bazı yabancı sermayeli bankaların ise önemli ölçüde zayıf performans sergilediğini göstermektedir. Bunun yanı sıra batmış olan iki özel sermayeli bankanın günümüzde faaliyet gösteren bazı bankalardan daha iyi pozisyonda olduğu sonucu da çalışmanın ilginç bulguları arasındadır ; Bank failures bring high costs to every part of a country's economy. If the necessary early warnings regarding the performance of the banks can be taken on time by the officials, policy makers and intuitions concerned, bank failures can be prevented and a more robust financial environment can be sustained. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to measure the performance and failure risk of Turkish deposit banks and to obtain ranking of the banks based on their financial ratios. To this end, we benefit from a data set which allows us to compare the current banks not only on the basis of their present relative position, but also on the basis of their position to the banks failed between 1997 and 2003. Our principal findings show that, some of privately owned and all of publicly owned current banks are quite sound in terms of their financial ratios while some of privately and foreign-owned banks have significantly poorer performance in terms of the ratios considered. Besides, our results unexpectedly show that two of previously failed banks are found to rank in a better position compared to some of currently operating banks in Turkey

As the economic and technological problems become more complex and require effective multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools for analysis thereof, there is a need for comprehensive MCDM techniques that would be capable to ensure robust optimization with minimum arbitrary assumptions. This paper proposes a new method for MCDM – the Kernel-based Comprehensive Aggregation PROMETHEE (PROMETHEE-KerCA). The proposed approach relies on the kernel density estimation which provides the bandwidths for scaling the differences in the performance of the alternatives. The kernel-based distances are aggregated to establish the performance measures thus following the principle of the outranking. Then, the measures of performance are aggregated in four different manners (additive, multiplicative, minimum and maximum values) to construct the comprehensive overall utility score. The proposed method does not require choosing the preference functions or parameters thereof. The empirical illustration is provided to show the feasibility of the proposed approach. The European Union Member States are ranked by the means of the KerCA method with regards to the objectives of the strategy Europe 2020. The isolated and pooled ranking allows comparing the progress of the countries compared with their initial situation and compared to the other countries in the sample.

As the economic and technological problems become more complex and require effective multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools for analysis thereof, there is a need for comprehensive MCDM techniques that would be capable to ensure robust optimization with minimum arbitrary assumptions. This paper proposes a new method for MCDM – the Kernel-based Comprehensive Aggregation PROMETHEE (PROMETHEE-KerCA). The proposed approach relies on the kernel density estimation which provides the bandwidths for scaling the differences in the performance of the alternatives. The kernel-based distances are aggregated to establish the performance measures thus following the principle of the outranking. Then, the measures of performance are aggregated in four different manners (additive, multiplicative, minimum and maximum values) to construct the comprehensive overall utility score. The proposed method does not require choosing the preference functions or parameters thereof. The empirical illustration is provided to show the feasibility of the proposed approach. The European Union Member States are ranked by the means of the KerCA method with regards to the objectives of the strategy Europe 2020. The isolated and pooled ranking allows comparing the progress of the countries compared with their initial situation and compared to the other countries in the sample.

AbstractSo far, the rank reversal (RR) phenomenon has been heavily discussed in the multiple criteria analysis literature. In this work, instead of focusing on RR occurrences within PROMETHEE II, an analysis of the third alternative with respect to a given pair of alternatives is conducted. The aim is to provide a way to identify third alternatives able to cause RR between a specific pair. This opens the question of building alternatives causing RR occurrences. Such alternatives can then be used to assess the resistance a given ranking has to RR. In the end, two different approaches are used. The first considers the number of third alternatives to be added to generate RR for a given pair of alternatives. While, the second one, provides a new threshold for RR occurrences in PROMETHEE II.

U radu je pokazano da metoda PROMETHEE, koja spada u poznatije metode višekriterijumske optimizacije, može da se koristi kao generalizovani kriterijum u različitim situacijama odlučivanja o raznim problemima i na svim nivoima vojne organizacije. Primenom datih metoda može se pojednostaviti proces odlučivanja i obezbediti velika pouzdanost odluka Ministarstva odbrane i viših nivoa odlučivanja Vojske Srbije, pre svega u rešavanju bitnih višekriterijumskih problema. ; This paper proves that the application of the PROMETHEE method, one of better known methods of multicriteria optimization, can be used as a generalized criterion for many different situations when solving diverse problems and at all levels of the military organization. The decision-making process can be simplified, resulting in a higher level of reliability of decisions of the Ministry of Defence and higher levels of command in Serbian Armed Forces while solving important multicriteria problems above all.

Considerable public resources are devoted to the establishment and operation of business incubators (BIs), which are seen as catalysts for the promotion of entrepreneurship, innovation activities and regional development. Despite the vast amount of research that has focused on the outcomes or effectiveness of incubator initiatives and how to measure incubator performance, there is still little understanding of how to determine incubators that are more effective than others. Based on data from 410 graduate firms, this paper applies the multicriteria outranking technique PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation) and compares the longterm effectiveness of five technologyoriented BIs in Germany. This is the first time that outranking procedures are used in incubator evaluations. In particular, we investigate whether PROMETHEE is a wellsuited methodological approach for the evaluation and comparisons in the specific context of business incubation. -- Business Incubators ; Evaluation ; Performance Measures ; PROMETHEE ; Outranking

The purpose of this paper is to present a decision making model as a support for selection of innovation management concept using multiple criteria decision-making methods. Defined innovation management concepts are evaluated using set of criteria, which priorities are expertly evaluated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and then the PROMETHEE method is used for evaluating and selecting variants. Based on the specific nature of innovation management concepts a novel decision making model was conceived. The model was imported to the Visual PROMETHEE software tool. The model was applied on a medium sized manufacturing company. The innovation concepts were evaluated and ranked. For this company the concept of value analysis was selected as the best. This study is limited for decision-making processes in medium and large sized companies. The results of AHP are based on expert but subjective assessment and therefore relevant for this particular company at that particular time. In addition, it is shown that this approach can help managers to solve similar decision-making problems using combination of AHP and software Visual PROMETHEE. The logic and process of the decision making model elaboration as much as the decision model itself can be used as a framework for managers facing decision making problems with similar nature as innovation management concepts i.e.: ERP systems, information systems, technologies, business models.