Suchergebnisse

Abstract
What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public? One suggestion is to communicate the relative risk of extreme weather in the form of odds ratios; but, to the authors' knowledge, this suggestion has never been tested systematically. The experiment reported here provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. Participants performed a realistic computer simulation task in which they assumed the role of the manager of a road maintenance company and used forecast information to decide whether to take precautionary action to prevent icy conditions on a town's roads. Participants with forecasts expressed as odds ratios were more likely to take appropriate precautionary action on a single target trial with an extreme low temperature forecast than participants using deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. However, participants using probabilistic forecasts performed better on trials involving weather within the normal range than participants with only deterministic forecast information. These results may provide insight into how best to communicate extreme weather risk. This paper offers clear evidence that people given relative risk information are more inclined to take precautionary action when threatened with an extreme weather event with a low probability than people given only single-value or probabilistic forecasts.

In this paper, the posterior density of the log–odds ratio is studied. It is assumed that the observations have a multinomial distribution and that the prior on the multinomial parameters is a Dirichlet density. Several approximations currently available are reviewed. Under certain conditions on the prior parameters of the Dirichlet density, it is shown that the posterior moments can be computed exactly. A new approximation, similar to the Edgeworth expansion is also proposed. Using a numerical example, the different methods of approximation of posterior density are compared.

Abstract

Research background: E-commerce is developing rapidly, especially during the Covid19 pandemic. This fact can benefit individuals who want to sell their already used goods. Importantly, for sellers, it is not always a priority to get the highest price, but sometimes it is simply effective to get rid of the goods at a satisfactory price.

Purpose: The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of the broadly understood time of the end of the online auction on the success or failure of a sale.

Research methodology: In the study, the raw odds ratio was used for the effect of a single variable. Next, the impact of specific variables within the set of risk factors was determined using the logistic regression.

Results: Auctions ending in the evening were found to be more than 150% more likely to be successful, while night hours reduced the chance of success by 50%. The day's most favorable for sales are Monday and Tuesday, the opposite pattern was observed for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. An interesting relationship was found for the second half of the month, which increased the possibility of selling the goods by over 20%.

Novelty: In the literature there are almost none that would focus on the analysis of the possibility of ending the auction with a sale (i.e. success) in the context of the auction end time on the Central European market. This issue is usually discussed on the side and has not been analyzed comprehensively – this paper is a step forward in this direction.

After the 1990s drop of cocoa prices in the world market accompanied by liberalization in this sector, farmers in the Centre region of Cameroon were advised to supplement their revenue by shifting from the mono-crop of cocoa to the cultivation of cocoa agroforest. But until now, this practice is still timidly adopted by cocoa producers. This paper analyses the factors determining the adoption of cocoa agroforest by using both the descriptive statistics and logit model from data collected from 128 farmers residing in this area. The results reveal that, farmers adopting that technique are mostly young, male, member of peasant association, member in rural credit system, frequently in contact with extension agents, educated, land renters, employers of salarial labour, occupant of managerial position, with large household size, with previous practice of crops' association or rotation and with low cocoa yield during the previous years. However, the likelihood is low to adopt the cocoa agroforest for those old farmers, owners of large land area, and with old cocoa orchards. The study therefore recommends to the government to popularize the cocoa agroforest by reviewing these disfavourable factors and by rewarding/subsidizing farmers planting supplementary trees within their cocoa orchards.

Malaria is hyper-endemic in Ghana, accounting for 44% of outpatient attendance, 13% of all hospital deaths, and 22% of mortality among children less than five years of age. The paper analyzed the risk factors of malaria mortality among children using a logistic regression model and also assessed the interaction effect between age and treatment of malaria patient. Secondary data was obtained from the inpatient morbidity and mortality returns register at Tamale Teaching Hospital, from 1st January 2008 to 31st December 2010. The results showed that risk factors such as referral status, age, distance, treatment and length of stay on admission were important predictors of malaria mortality. However, it was found that the risk factors; sex and season were not good predictors of malaria mortality. Finally, the interaction effect between age and treatment was found to be significant. It was recommended, among other things, that the government should provide more assessable roads and expand ambulance services to the various Districts/communities in and around the Tamale metropolis to facilitate referral cases.

BACKGROUND: This empirical study investigated the extent of malnutrition and factors associated with malnutrition amid children aged 0-59 months in Bangladesh using Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey data, 2014. METHODS: To examine the extent of malnutrition among the children under five in Bangladesh, we used Height-for-age, weight-for-height and weight-for-age. The association between the selected factors and nutritional status were assessed and logistic regression models were fitted for the three indicators. RESULTS: 36.2% children are stunted, 15% are wasted and 33% are underweight. Prevalence of stunting or underweight is lowest amongst children aged 0–6 months and highest at the age of 18 to 23 months (stunted 48% and underweight 37%). Wasting is highest in 0–6months. Odd of being stunted is 30% to 50% higher in Sylhet division as compared to other divisions. Other key covariates for stunting are urban area (OR = 1.226, p-value = 0.004), no or primary education of father (OR = 1.318, p-value < 0.001), no or primary education of mother (OR = 1.22, p-value = 0.002), underweight mothers (OR = 1.76, p-value <0.001) and wealth index poorest (OR = 2.892, p-value < 0.001). Important covariates for wasting are mother's occupation as physical labor (OR = 1.208, p-value = 0.018), underweight mothers (OR = 2.145, p-value <0.001) and wealth index poorest (OR = 2.892, p-value < 0.001). For underweight main covariates are: no or primary education of father (OR = 1.182, p-value = 0.011), no or primary education of mother (OR = 1.214, p-value = 0.002), mothers in physical labor (OR = 1.289, p-value < 0.001), underweight mothers (OR = 2.625, p-value < 0.001) and wealth index poorest (OR = 2.315, p-value < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to the ongoing programs to improve child health, government may wish to design targeted nutrition intervention strategies to make sure that health information and health education are easily accessible for parents. The most vulnerable groups including the children from poorest socio-economic group or children in the urban area require special attention. Mothers should also be given focus while designing intervention programs.