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Includes bibliographical references and index. ; estimation of nonlinear political durations: an application to the lifetime of bureaus / Daniel P. Carpenter. Neural network models for political analysis / Langche Zeng. Economic sanctions and neural networks: forecasting effectiveness and reconsidering cooperation / David H. Bearce. Pattern recognition of international crises using hidden Markov models / Philip A. Schrodt -- pt. 4. Conclusion. Optimizing, strategizing, and recognizing: learning in a dynamic social environment / Diana Richards. ; Nonlinear modeling: all things suffer change / Diana Richards -- pt. 1. Spatial nonlinearity: optimization and search. Consequences of nonlinear preferences in a federal system / Ken Kollman, John H. Miller, and Scott E. Page. Landscapes as analogues of political phenomena / D. Scott Bennett -- pt. 2. Temporal nonlinearity: complexity over time. Episodic nonlinear event detection: political epochs in exchange rates / Chris Brooks, Melvin J. Hinich, and Robert E. Molyneux. Congressional campaign contributions, district service, and electoral outcomes in the United States: statistical tests of a formal game model with nonlinear dynamics / Walter R. Mebane Jr. I know you know he or she knows we know you know they know: common knowledge and the unpredictability of informational cascades / Susanne Lohmann. Nonlinear dynamics in games: convergence and stability in international environmental agreements / Diana Richards -- pt. 3. Functional nonlinearity: networks and patterns. Stochastic prediction and ; Mode of access: Internet.

This is a book on nonlinear economic relations that involve time. It covers specification testing of linear versus non-linear models, model specification testing, estimation of smooth transition models, volatility modelling using non-linear model specification, analysis of high dimensional data set, and forecasting.

"What do economic chaos and uncertainties mean in rational or irrational economic theories? How do simple deterministic interactions among a few variables lead to unpredictable complex phenomena? Why is complexity of economies causing so many conflicts and confusions worldwide? This book provides a comprehensive introduction to recent developments of complexity theory in economics. It presents different models based on well-accepted economic mechanisms such as the Solow model, Ramsey model, and Lucas model. It is focused on presenting complex behaviors, such as business cycles, aperiodic motion, bifurcations, catastrophes, chaos, and hidden attractors, in basic economic models with nonlinear behavior. It shows how complex nonlinear phenomena are identified from various economic mechanisms and theories. These models demonstrate that the traditional or dominant economic views on evolution of, for instance, capitalism market, free competition, or Keynesian economics, are not generally valid. Markets are unpredictable and nobody knows with certainty the consequences of policies or other external factors in economic systems with simple interactions."

Economic application of nonlinear dynamics, microscopic agent-based modelling, and the use of artificial intelligence techniques as learning devices of boundedly rational actors are among the most exciting interdisciplinary ventures of economic theory over the past decade. This volume provides us with a most fascinating series of examples on 'complexity in action' exemplifying the scope and explanatory power of these innovative approaches.