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ABSTRACTThe classic newsvendor model was developed under the assumption that period‐to‐period demand is independent over time. In real‐life applications, the notion of independent demand is often challenged. In this article, we examine the newsvendor model in the presence of correlated demands. Specifically under a stationary AR(1) demand, we study the performance of the traditional newsvendor implementation versus a dynamic forecast‐based implementation. We demonstrate theoretically that implementing a minimum mean square error (MSE) forecast model will always have improved performance relative to the traditional implementation in terms of cost savings. In light of the widespread usage of all‐purpose models like the moving‐average method and exponential smoothing method, we compare the performance of these popular alternative forecasting methods against both the MSE‐optimal implementation and the traditional newsvendor implementation. If only alternative forecasting methods are being considered, we find that under certain conditions it is best to ignore the correlation and opt out of forecasting and to simply implement the traditional newsvendor model.

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review. ; The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.22594/dau.21-865.28.04 ; The United States Marine Corps (USMC) Installation and Logistics Command requested a study for determining appropriate inventory levels of war reserve materiel to meet future operational needs under surge demands in uncertain environments. This study sought to explore a potential approach by using the common newsvendor model, but modified for a military scenario. The authors' novel version of this core concept considers the purchase and storage costs of an item and proposes an intangible cost function to capture the consequences of a shortage. Further, they show a sample application of the model using a ubiquitous military item-the BA-5590/U battery. The output of the model provides USMC with a new tool to optimize inventory levels of a given item of interest, depending on scenario inputs. ; USMC Installation and Logistics Command, Logistics Plans and Operations (Maritime and Geo-Prepositioning Programs) (LPO-2)

AbstractWe study in this paper the price‐dependent (PD) newsvendor model in which a manufacturer sells a product to an independent retailer facing uncertain demand and the retail price is endogenously determined by the retailer. We prove that for a zero salvage value and some expected demand functions, in equilibrium, the manufacturer may elect not to introduce buybacks. On the other hand, if buybacks are introduced in equilibrium, their introduction has an insignificant effect on channel efficiency improvement, but, by contrast, may significantly shift profits from the retailer to the manufacturer. We further demonstrate that the introduction of buybacks increases the wholesale price, retail price, and inventory level, as compared to the wholesale price‐only contract, and that the corresponding vertically integrated firm offers the lowest retail price and highest inventory level. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.