Suchergebnisse

Banking risk management is considered weak compared to rapid changes in financial markets. In light of the recent global financial crisis, banking risk management has become a significant concern of banking regulators and government agencies. This work aims to build a model for assessing banking risks. The primary study method is economic–mathematical modeling based on the standardized model of the Basel Committee for Operational Risk Management, the modified CAPM model, and the model developed by Shapiro and Cornell for currency risk management. The information base was the financial statements of Bank Credit Agricole (Poland). As a result, an economic–mathematical model is built, which is the optimal combination of operational, currency, and credit risk management models. This model calculates the optimal values of bank balance sheet items, which allows for making the right management decisions. It allowed adjusting the value of the bank profit by 3.6 million US dollars. In conclusion, considering the results of banking risk modeling, the need to build a strategy for the bank's development is determined.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the commercial real estate market dynamics as a function of and conditional to the shifts in market state-space environment that can influence agent responses.Design/methodology/approachThe analytical design uses a comparative computational experiment to address the performance of property assets in the current market based on comparison with prior structural patterns. The latent variables developed across market sectors are used to test agent behavior contingent on the perspectives of capital asset pricing conditionals (CAPM) and a behavioral momentum/herd construct. The state-space momentum analysis can assist the comparative analysis of current levels and shifts in property asset performance given the issues that have arisen with the financial crisis of 2007-2009.FindingsAn analytic approach is employed framed by a situation-dependent model. This frame considers risk profiles characterizing the perspectives and preferences guiding a delineated market state. This perspective is concerned with the possibility of shifts in market momentum and representativeness conditioning investor expectations. It is observed that the current market (post-crisis) has changed significantly from the prior operations (despite the diversity observed in prior market states). The dynamics of initial findings required an additional test anchored to the performance of the general capital market and the real economy across time. This context supports the use of a modified CAPM model allowing the consideration of opportunity cost in a space-time dynamic anchored with the consideration of equity, debt, riskless asset and liquidity options as they varied for the representative agents operating per market state.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper integrates neoclassical and behavioral economic constructs. Combines asset pricing with prospect theory and allows the calculation of endogenous time-preferences, risk attitudes and formulation and testing of hyperbolic discounting functions.Practical implicationsThe research shows that market structure and agent behavior since the financial crisis has changed from the investment and valuation perspectives operating as observed and measured from 1970 up to 2007. In contradiction to the long-term findings of Reinhart and Rogoff (2008), but in compliance with common perspectives and decision heuristics often employed by investors, this time things have changed! Discounting and expected rates of return are dynamic and are hyperbolic and not constant. Returns and investment for property assets are situational (market state-space specific) and offer a distinct asset class, not appropriately estimated by many of the traditional financial models.Social implicationsAssist in supporting insights to measure in errors and equations that result in inefficient resource allocation and beta discounting that supports the financial crisis created by assets subject to long-term decision needs (delta function).Originality/valueThe paper offers a combination and comparison of neoclassic asset pricing using a modified CAPM (two-pass) approach within the structural frame of Kahneman and Tversky's (1979) prospect theory. This technique allows the consideration of the effects of present bias, beta-delta functions and the operation of the Allais Paradox in market states that are characterized by gains and losses and thus risk aversion and risk seeking behavior. This ability for differentiation allows for the development of endogenous time-preferences and hyperbolic discounting factors characteristic of commercial property investment.

This study uses a Design of Experiment (DOE) approach and the Taguchi method to examine how different factors affect the expected return within the framework of the CAPM. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a financial framework that forecasts an investment's expected return by taking into account its systematic risk. This model factors elements like the risk-free rate, market risk premium, and beta to ascertain the expected return for a given asset. Typically, historical market data and financial analysis provide the inputs for CAPM. This method, frequently used in manufacturing and engineering, is modified for use in the financial domain to evaluate the importance of variables like beta, market risk premium, and the risk-free rate. The research identifies the factors that influence investment performance and shows how much each factor contributes to the expected returns. It is possible to ascertain each factor's percentage contribution to the expected return through statistical analysis. This work improves knowledge of CAPM and creates opportunities for improving investment decision-making processes by bridging the gap between financial theory and experimental design. Financial practitioners can achieve more reliable and accurate investment return forecasts by incorporating DOE techniques into their existing analytical toolkit.

This paper examines Yale Endowment model and proposes a modified investment model to achieve an investment objective of mainstream investors and to comply with Sharia principle. The proposed model utilizes Islamic CAPM to formulate the optimal asset allocation for Islamic pension fund's portfolio. It will offer a strong investment strong which could be adopted by government to manage the Islamic pension fund and raise the awareness of society to see the great potential of Islamic pension fund in the future. Promoting an efficient and productive investment of pension-fund assets not only helps reaching Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by providing important sources of long-term finance for development, supporting financial inclusion and ensuring that poverty among the elderly is alleviated by a strong growth and resilience of income in retirement through pension systems that have broad coverage.

Purpose: This research has been carried out to test empirically the application of Fama and French three factor model on Pakistan Stock Exchange covering forty listed companies using annual data from 1984 to 2012. Methodology: Author selected excess return as dependent variable and three independent variables market risk, size of the firm and the book to market value of the firms in the portfolio. To test the hypotheses, author used panel least square method. Findings: Result shows that all independent variables are significant and have sign as predicted by theoretical understanding. From our result we interpret that three factors model explain returns in its simplified form on long term horizon better than single factor model like CAPM. Implication: The findings of the research paper suggest that developing economy like Pakistan investor and portfolio manager can better understand by applying multiple variable models and its modified form rather than only relying on CAMP covariance sensitivity model.

Abstract

Research background and purpose: The CAPM, Fama-French and modified Fama-French models were used to estimate the cost of the capital of the DJIA and selected Polish stock indexes were used. The estimated cost of capital was the cost of the portfolio of corporate investment projects estimated by market returns.

Research methodology: The model tests were run on 276 monthly returns of stocks listed on the markets in the years 1995–2019. The bootstrap method to estimate the confidence interval of the cost of capital was used.

Results: The highest and positive cost of capital median was found for the DJIA index, about 0.85% monthly, and for the WIG20 and WIGDIV indexes, about 0.25% monthly. The cost of capital median for the mWIG80, WIGBANK and WIGCHEMIA indexes were found to be negative. This was due to large errors in the estimated cost of capital.

Novelty: Minor errors in the estimation of the cost of capital of index DJIA may result from a more rational policy for the implementation of investment projects by companies included in the index.