Suchergebnisse

Is macroeconomic stability the Achilles heel of the Chinese economy? Recurrent bouts of inflationary disorder lead some observers to worry that the Chinese government is unable to control the economy. Macroeconomic difficulties show up in a pattern of repeated boom and bust cycles, in which each boom is accompanied by an acute inflationary phase and significant disruption. Moreover, since the reform era began, the peak annual inflation rate of each successive cycle has been higher than that of the preceding one. The most recent attempts to cool off the economy have only led to additional questions. An austerity policy was decreed at the end of June 1993, yet inflation actually accelerated in 1994, and it was not until mid-1995 that it dropped to the levels of mid-1993. The Chinese government was engaged in a quest for an economic "soft landing" for two years without a net reduction in the inflation rate!

The author addresses a few of the many issues relating to Chinese macroeconomic policy. After describing the basic conditions that structure China's macroeconomic problems, he shows that the retreat of the state from most spheres of the economy has not been accompanied by a similar reduction in state fixed investment. The enormous pressures on the banking system by shrinking state revenues and large state investment are examined. (DÜI-Sen)

We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy — the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena — in the context of a historic surge in inflation. We measure economic narratives in open-ended survey responses and represent them as Directed Acyclic Graphs. We apply this approach in surveys with more than 8,000 US households and 100 academic experts. We document three main findings. First, compared to experts, households' narratives are coarser, focus less on the demand side, and are more likely to feature politically-loaded explanations. Second, households' narratives strongly shape their inflation expectations, which we demonstrate with descriptive survey data and a series of experiments. Third, an experiment varying news consumption shows that the media is an important source of narratives. Our findings demonstrate the relevance of narratives for understanding macroeconomic expectation formation.

A problem in urgent need of attention in modern industrial societies is to discover ways to de-link aggregate output from recorded employment. If the loss were shared in a manner deemed fair by the general public, there would be nothing catastrophic for people in a country where the average income is 35,000 international dollars a year to suffer an income loss of even 25 per cent, let alone 5 per cent. Average income in the UK in 1990 was about 25 per cent less than in 2005. It's hard to maintain that UK citizens experienced significantly lower levels of personal wellbeing in 1990 than they did in 2005. Revival of research on competitive consumption (e.g., Veblen's 'conspicuous consumption') and reports on 'life satisfaction' suggest that a general rise in private consumption among a population enjoying a high standard of living adds little to happiness, or indeed to objectively measured indices of wellbeing.

SUMMARYThis article uses the number of pages in the Code of Federal Regulations to investigate the empirical relationship between federal regulation and macroeconomic performance in the U.S. The analysis uses an aggregate production framework to study the co‐movement of output and the factors of production that results from regulation. The use of cointegration methodology overcomes some shortcomings of traditional techniques. The results suggest that regulation generally is negatively related to aggregate economic performance in both the short run and the long run. Some specific areas of regulation are also found to have important long‐run effects, some positive and some negative.

We revisit a key question about poverty that was a repeated subject of investigation for Rebecca Blank, estimating the effects of the business cycle on pre–tax-and-transfer and post–tax-and-transfer poverty. Using an anchored household-level version of the Supplemental Poverty Measure's thresholds and resources, we show that poverty is countercyclical, rising in recessions and falling in expansions. We also find that the social safety net provides protection against cyclicality: Post–tax-and-transfer poverty is less cyclical than is pre–tax-and-transfer poverty. The largest cyclicality occurs among children and Black and Hispanic persons, and lower cyclicality is evident among white and elderly persons. The safety net leads to the largest reductions in cyclicality for the elderly and the smallest effects for nonelderly households without children. Finally, we find an inverted U shape with cyclicality low and rising below 75 percent of poverty and declining above.