Modeling model uncertainty
In: NBER working paper series 9566
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In: NBER working paper series 9566
In: Synthese: an international journal for epistemology, methodology and philosophy of science, Band 190, Heft 16, S. 3397-3420
ISSN: 1573-0964
In: Synthese: an international journal for epistemology, methodology and philosophy of science, Band 196, Heft 12, S. 5115-5136
ISSN: 1573-0964
This chapter aims to provide a hands-on approach to New Keynesian models and their uses for macroeconomic policy analysis. It starts by reviewing the origins of the New Keynesian approach, the key model ingredients and representative models. Building blocks of current-generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are discussed in detail. These models address the famous Lucas critique by deriving behavioral equations systematically from the optimizing and forward-looking decision-making of households and firms subject to well-defined constraints. State-of-the-art methods for solving and estimating such models are reviewed and presented in examples. The chapter goes beyond the mere presentation of the most popular benchmark model by providing a framework for model comparison along with a database that includes a wide variety of macroeconomic models. Thus, it offers a convenient approach for comparing new models to available benchmarks and for investigating whether particular policy recommendations are robust to model uncertainty. Such robustness analysis is illustrated by evaluating the performance of simple monetary policy rules across a range of recently-estimated models including some with financial market imperfections and by reviewing recent comparative findings regarding the magnitude of government spending multipliers. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important objectives for on-going and future research using the New Keynesian framework.
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This chapter aims to provide a hands-on approach to New Keynesian models and their uses for macroeconomic policy analysis. It starts by reviewing the origins of the New Keynesian approach, the key model ingredients and representative models. Building blocks of current-generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are discussed in detail. These models address the famous Lucas critique by deriving behavioral equations systematically from the optimizing and forward-looking decision-making of households and firms subject to well-defined constraints. State-of-the-art methods for solving and estimating such models are reviewed and presented in examples. The chapter goes beyond the mere presentation of the most popular benchmark model by providing a framework for model comparison along with a database that includes a wide variety of macroeconomic models. Thus, it offers a convenient approach for comparing new models to available benchmarks and for investigating whether particular policy recommendations are robust to model uncertainty. Such robustness analysis is illustrated by evaluating the performance of simple monetary policy rules across a range of recently-estimated models including some with financial market imperfections and by reviewing recent comparative findings regarding the magnitude of government spending multipliers. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important objectives for on-going and future research using the New Keynesian framework.
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In: The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Band 542, S. 48-60
ISSN: 0002-7162
Two main types of negotiation processes can be distinguished -- distributive & integrative. While the distributive process consists primarily of concession making, the integrative process involves both concession making & a search for mutually profitable alternatives. Thus, the meaning of flexibility is not always the same: in distributive negotiations, it means readiness to make concessions; in the integrative negotiations setting, it also means readiness to engage in the search process. Computer simulations suggest that the distributive process is faster, but that the integrative process is potentially more productive in that it can increase the chances of an agreement. For integrative negotiation to fulfill its potential, however, the search engaged in must be joint, & during the search, the adversaries must interact face to face. Distributive negotiation can also be made more productive by having the adversaries interact face to face, under conditions that emphasize their similarities. 2 Tables, 1 Figure. Adapted from the source document.
In: The Indian journal of political science, Band 50, Heft 2, S. 234-250
ISSN: 0019-5510
THE AUTHOR PRESENTS A SUMMARY OF THE WHOLE PROCESS OF USING MODELS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE TO INTRODUCE THE CONCEPT, THE HISTORY, TECHNIQUES, AND TYPES TO THE BEGINNER IN THE FIELD.
In: Journal of policy modeling: JPMOD ; a social science forum of world issues, Band 15, Heft 5-6, S. 545-580
ISSN: 0161-8938
In: American political science review, Band 89, Heft 1, S. 49-61
ISSN: 0003-0554
In: International studies quarterly: the journal of the International Studies Association, Band 40, Heft 1, S. 41-80
ISSN: 0020-8833, 1079-1760
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 33, Heft 1, S. 67
ISSN: 0022-0027, 0731-4086
In: Journal of policy analysis and management: the journal of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, Band 3, Heft 2, S. 191-205
ISSN: 0276-8739
WITH A CONTINUOUS DECLINE IN THE COST OF MANIPULATING DATA AND A CONTINUOUS INCREASE IN THE RICHNESS OF DATA BANKS, POLICYMAKERS HAVE INCREASING OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD AND APPLY SO-CALLED MICROSIMULATION MODELS-MODELS THAT ATTEMPT TO SIMULATE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE INDIVIDUALS IN A LARGE POPULATION UNDER A SPECIFIED PROGRAM. THE EFFORTS OF THE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR TO USE A MODEL IN EVALUATING PROPOSED CHANGES, IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE SYSTEM POINT UP BOTH THE POWER AND THE WEAKNESSES OF SUCH MODELS. ANY USER WHO APPLIES THESE MODELS WITHOUT ATTEMPTING TO UNDERSTAND WHICH OF THEIR STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES ARE MOST IMPORTANT FOR ANALYZING THE PROBLEM AT HAND IS ASKING FOR TROUBLE. EASY TO USE OR NOT, THESE MODELS ARE NOT USER-FRIENDLY.
ISSN: 0161-8938
In: Journal of policy modeling: JPMOD ; a social science forum of world issues, Band 12, Heft 1, S. 93-128
ISSN: 0161-8938
THIS ARTICLE PRESENTS UPDATED AND REVISED ESTIMATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND'S WORLD TRADE MODEL. THE MODEL ESTIMATES IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE AND VOLUME RELATIONSHIPS FOR MANUFACTURES, RAW MATERIAL, AND AGRICULTURAL MERCHANDISE TRADE FOR FOURTEEN LARGE INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. THE EXTENDED DATA SET GENERALLY RESULTS IN ESTIMATED PRICE AND VOLUME EQUATIONS THAT FIT THE DATA BETTER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF THE MODEL. IN ADDITION, THE SIMULATION PROPERTIES OF THE MODEL ARE ENHANCED BY IMPOSING LONG-TERM ACTIVITY ELASTICITIES OF UNITY ON THE ACTIVITY TERMS IN THE DEMAND FOR IMPORTED MANUFACTURES EQUATIONS.
In: Public choice, Band 85, Heft 3-4, S. 353-370
ISSN: 0048-5829