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"This paper studies empirically the links between international trade and labor income risk faced by workers in the United States. We use longitudinal data on workers to estimate time-varying individual income risk at the industry level. We then combine our estimates of persistent labor income risk with measures of exposure to international trade to analyze the relationship between trade and labor income risk. Importantly, by contrasting estimates from various sub-samples of workers, such as those who switched to a different industry (or sector) with those who remained in the same industry throughout the sample, we study the relative importance of the different channels through which international trade affects individual income risk. Finally, we use these estimates to conduct a welfare analysis evaluating the benefits or costs of trade through the income risk channel. We find import penetration to have a statistically significant association with labor income risk in the United States, with economically significant welfare effects"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

We discuss long-run growth in an economy which is subject to aggregate productivity shocks affecting all factors of production. We demonstrate that the presence of labor income risk unambiguously is an important determinant of long-run expected growth. The issue of dynamic inefficiency of the underlying allocation is related to the size of the risk premium on capital return. The paper also examines the effects distributive disturbances and elastic labor supply, the latter giving rise to the possibility of multiple equilibria.