Suchergebnisse

The Tunisian political system is still in process of transitioning, causing high uncertainty and political instability. As remittances have long been perceived as a buffer against uncertainty surrounding unusual events, this study seeks to assess the role of remittances in times of rising socio-political unrest. To do so, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the behavior of remittances during troubled political transition. Specifically, detailed investigation of rescaled range(R/S) analysis to test whether remittances follow a long-memory process is carried out. Our findings tend to confirm the stable behavior of remittances. We can therefore characterize Tunisian migrants as regular customers in the future. This would affect positively both the balance of payments and the families who receive them. But this situation seems to be exogenous and is not related to the implementation of any policy to attract remittances. Hence the Paramount importance of designing a comprehensive strategy that enables remittances to play a more potential role in post-revolution periods and that renders emigration an integral part of growth strategies.

Over the past decade, remittances to Tunisia have increased significantly. Meantime, the Tunisian economy has grown by as little as 0.6 percent on average with inflation averaging six percent. With the harmful economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 crisis as well as the political unrest (especially after Tunisian President Kais Saied invoked Article 80 of the country's 2014 constitution to suspend parliament amid nationwide protests calling for the resignation of the government and the dissolution of the parliament), managing inflation risks seems growingly challenging. Our study is the first attempt to examine the relationship between remittances and Tunisia's inflation dynamics in the central and tail distributions over different correlation regimes. Particularly, we use a copula-based approach that sheds a new light on the dynamic dependence between inflation and remittances. This technique allows to control for possible asymmetries in the form of a high or crisis dependence and a low or a normal state dependence. Our results robustly reveal that remittances are prominent factor determining inflation in Tunisia. More interestingly, we show that remittances and inflation are more strongly correlated during high uncertainty conditions rather than low uncertainty regime. Such accurate insights on the dynamic relationship between remittances and inflation would allow the central bank to anticipate more effectively the evolution of inflation and to propose more appropriate instruments to control it in a context of high inflationary pressures and heightened political uncertainty.

International audience ; This paper looks at the determinants of international remittances in the case of South-South migrations. Using micro-economic data from a survey conducted in 2006, analysis was carried out on 639 African migrants residing in Johannesburg. Besides the traditional variables (income, household's size in the host country, age, sex, education…), political variables (regime change in the host country and conditions in the country of origin before the migration including war, and conflict) are used in the analysis. The results highlight the importance of these political variables as determinants of migrants' probability to remit. The end of the apartheid regime in South Africa impacts positively and significantly the probability of remitting money to the home country while the fact of having fled one's country of origin because of violence or conflict has the opposite effect. However, the political change in the host country has no influence on the amounts transferred. Once the decision to remit is taken, traditional variables have more of an explanatory power in predicting amounts transferred than political variables.

International audience ; This paper looks at the determinants of international remittances in the case of South-South migrations. Using micro-economic data from a survey conducted in 2006, analysis was carried out on 639 African migrants residing in Johannesburg. Besides the traditional variables (income, household's size in the host country, age, sex, education…), political variables (regime change in the host country and conditions in the country of origin before the migration including war, and conflict) are used in the analysis. The results highlight the importance of these political variables as determinants of migrants' probability to remit. The end of the apartheid regime in South Africa impacts positively and significantly the probability of remitting money to the home country while the fact of having fled one's country of origin because of violence or conflict has the opposite effect. However, the political change in the host country has no influence on the amounts transferred. Once the decision to remit is taken, traditional variables have more of an explanatory power in predicting amounts transferred than political variables.

This paper looks at the determinants of international remittances in the case of South-South migrations. Using micro-economic data from a survey conducted in 2006, analysis was carried out on 639 African migrants residing in Johannesburg. Because of the diversity of the reasons of migration to South Africa and the regime change in this country, the paper focuses on the impact of the conditions of departure (forced/non forced) and of the political environment in the host country on remittances. So, besides the traditional variables (income, household's size in the host country, age, sex, education…), the conditions of departure from the country of origin (war, conflict, persecutions), the regime change in the host country and subjective variables (perception of relative wealth, attachment to the country of origin) are used in the analysis. The potential endogeneity bias of the attachment variable is corrected to obtain non biased estimations of the model. The results highlight the importance of the political factors as determinants of remittances. Both the conditions of departure and the political environment in the host country (access to democracy) influence the propensity to remit. The fact of having fled one's country of origin because of violence or conflict has a negative effect on the propensity to remit, whereas the access to the democracy impacts positively remittances. Subjective variables also impact significantly and positively the transfers. The migrants who follow the political affairs of their country of origin or who think that they were worse off economically before coming in South Africa have a higher propensity to remit.

This paper looks at the determinants of international remittances in the case of South-South migrations. Using micro-economic data from a survey conducted in 2006, analysis was carried out on 639 African migrants residing in Johannesburg. Because of the diversity of the reasons of migration to South Africa and the regime change in this country, the paper focuses on the impact of the conditions of departure (forced/non forced) and of the political environment in the host country on remittances. So, besides the traditional variables (income, household's size in the host country, age, sex, education…), the conditions of departure from the country of origin (war, conflict, persecutions), the regime change in the host country and subjective variables (perception of relative wealth, attachment to the country of origin) are used in the analysis. The potential endogeneity bias of the attachment variable is corrected to obtain non biased estimations of the model. The results highlight the importance of the political factors as determinants of remittances. Both the conditions of departure and the political environment in the host country (access to democracy) influence the propensity to remit. The fact of having fled one's country of origin because of violence or conflict has a negative effect on the propensity to remit, whereas the access to the democracy impacts positively remittances. Subjective variables also impact significantly and positively the transfers. The migrants who follow the political affairs of their country of origin or who think that they were worse off economically before coming in South Africa have a higher propensity to remit.

Présentation au IXème Colloque international PS2D, DEVELOPPEMENT INCLUSIF ET DURABLE AU SUD DE LA MEDITERRANEE, 6-8 avril 2017, Hammamet, Tunisie. ; L'impact des transferts de fonds sur le taux de change effectif réel est analysé pour un panel de trois pays du Maghreb, la Tunisie, le Maroc et l'Algérie entre 1980 et 2015, à l'aide d'un modèle en panel dynamique autorégressif à retards échelonnés (ARDL) qui permet d'analyser aussi bien la relation de court et de long terme. Les résultats montrent, contrairement à ce qui est trouvé pour les pays d'Amérique latine, que l'afflux de capitaux sous forme de transferts de fonds par les migrants entraîne, non pas une appréciation, mais une très légère dépréciation du taux de change effectif réel. En conséquence, les envois de fonds par leur impact sur le taux de change n'ont pas d'incidence négative sur la compétitivité prix des trois pays du Maghreb. Cet effet est légèrement plus marqué en Algérie qu'en Tunisie ou au Maroc. L'usage des transferts par les familles récipiendaires, les caractéristiques contra cycliques des entrées de devise, via les transferts des migrants et la politique de change menée réduisent ce risque d'appréciation du change, nommé « syndrome hollandais ».

Présentation au IXème Colloque international PS2D, DEVELOPPEMENT INCLUSIF ET DURABLE AU SUD DE LA MEDITERRANEE, 6-8 avril 2017, Hammamet, Tunisie. ; L'impact des transferts de fonds sur le taux de change effectif réel est analysé pour un panel de trois pays du Maghreb, la Tunisie, le Maroc et l'Algérie entre 1980 et 2015, à l'aide d'un modèle en panel dynamique autorégressif à retards échelonnés (ARDL) qui permet d'analyser aussi bien la relation de court et de long terme. Les résultats montrent, contrairement à ce qui est trouvé pour les pays d'Amérique latine, que l'afflux de capitaux sous forme de transferts de fonds par les migrants entraîne, non pas une appréciation, mais une très légère dépréciation du taux de change effectif réel. En conséquence, les envois de fonds par leur impact sur le taux de change n'ont pas d'incidence négative sur la compétitivité prix des trois pays du Maghreb. Cet effet est légèrement plus marqué en Algérie qu'en Tunisie ou au Maroc. L'usage des transferts par les familles récipiendaires, les caractéristiques contra cycliques des entrées de devise, via les transferts des migrants et la politique de change menée réduisent ce risque d'appréciation du change, nommé « syndrome hollandais ».

International audience ; This study examines the impact of remittance inflows on deforestation in developing countries. We also investigate the role of institutional quality in enhancing remittances' effect in reducing deforestation. Our results suggest that overall remittances reduce deforestation. We show that remittances' reduction effect on deforestation is greater in middle-income countries than in low-income countries. Considering institutional quality, our findings suggest that, for the entire sample, and in low- and middle-income countries, control of corruption, political stability, government effectiveness and rule of law act to reduce deforestation. Moreover, institutional quality enhances the impact of remittances on reducing deforestation in the entire sample and in middle-income countries. In contrast, in low-income countries, institutional quality does not complement remittances to reduce deforestation.These results imply that, to reduce deforestation rates, the focus should not only be on economic development, but to an even greater extent, on institutional quality.

International audience ; This study examines the impact of remittance inflows on deforestation in developing countries. We also investigate the role of institutional quality in enhancing remittances' effect in reducing deforestation. Our results suggest that overall remittances reduce deforestation. We show that remittances' reduction effect on deforestation is greater in middle-income countries than in low-income countries. Considering institutional quality, our findings suggest that, for the entire sample, and in low- and middle-income countries, control of corruption, political stability, government effectiveness and rule of law act to reduce deforestation. Moreover, institutional quality enhances the impact of remittances on reducing deforestation in the entire sample and in middle-income countries. In contrast, in low-income countries, institutional quality does not complement remittances to reduce deforestation.These results imply that, to reduce deforestation rates, the focus should not only be on economic development, but to an even greater extent, on institutional quality.

International audience ; This study examines the impact of remittance inflows on deforestation in developing countries. We also investigate the role of institutional quality in enhancing remittances' effect in reducing deforestation. Our results suggest that overall remittances reduce deforestation. We show that remittances' reduction effect on deforestation is greater in middle-income countries than in low-income countries. Considering institutional quality, our findings suggest that, for the entire sample, and in low- and middle-income countries, control of corruption, political stability, government effectiveness and rule of law act to reduce deforestation. Moreover, institutional quality enhances the impact of remittances on reducing deforestation in the entire sample and in middle-income countries. In contrast, in low-income countries, institutional quality does not complement remittances to reduce deforestation.These results imply that, to reduce deforestation rates, the focus should not only be on economic development, but to an even greater extent, on institutional quality.

International audience ; This study examines the impact of remittance inflows on deforestation in developing countries. We also investigate the role of institutional quality in enhancing remittances' effect in reducing deforestation. Our results suggest that overall remittances reduce deforestation. We show that remittances' reduction effect on deforestation is greater in middle-income countries than in low-income countries. Considering institutional quality, our findings suggest that, for the entire sample, and in low- and middle-income countries, control of corruption, political stability, government effectiveness and rule of law act to reduce deforestation. Moreover, institutional quality enhances the impact of remittances on reducing deforestation in the entire sample and in middle-income countries. In contrast, in low-income countries, institutional quality does not complement remittances to reduce deforestation.These results imply that, to reduce deforestation rates, the focus should not only be on economic development, but to an even greater extent, on institutional quality.

International audience ; This study examines the impact of remittance inflows on deforestation in developing countries. We also investigate the role of institutional quality in enhancing remittances' effect in reducing deforestation. Our results suggest that overall remittances reduce deforestation. We show that remittances' reduction effect on deforestation is greater in middle-income countries than in low-income countries. Considering institutional quality, our findings suggest that, for the entire sample, and in low- and middle-income countries, control of corruption, political stability, government effectiveness and rule of law act to reduce deforestation. Moreover, institutional quality enhances the impact of remittances on reducing deforestation in the entire sample and in middle-income countries. In contrast, in low-income countries, institutional quality does not complement remittances to reduce deforestation.These results imply that, to reduce deforestation rates, the focus should not only be on economic development, but to an even greater extent, on institutional quality.

International audience ; This paper examines the link between remittances, institutions quality and economic growth for 11 South-Mediterranean countries (SMC) over the period 1984–2014. Based on a Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation, the empirical analysis reveals three findings: institutions quality have a positive effect on economic growth, there is no direct link between remittances and economic growth and remittances and institutional quality are complements in enhancing economic growth.

International audience ; This paper examines the link between remittances, institutions quality and economic growth for 11 South-Mediterranean countries (SMC) over the period 1984–2014. Based on a Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation, the empirical analysis reveals three findings: institutions quality have a positive effect on economic growth, there is no direct link between remittances and economic growth and remittances and institutional quality are complements in enhancing economic growth.