Suchergebnisse

The current confrontation between the State of Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran is not an exceptionally new phenomenon; however, it is noticeable that escalation around the "Iran nuclear deal" makes this issue one of the most urgent on the current political agenda. This article focuses on countries' strategic culture as both public and non-state actors see and respond to challenges and opportunities international system − which is the result of cultural perception. Iranian and Israeli strategic cultures have some similarities - consideration of which is necessary to understand the specifics of the relationship between the two states and Jerusalem's possible response to a potential nuclearization of Tehran. Cultural details are often overlooked when we are trying to analyze the policy of a particular state, however, this analysis can provide an understanding of a particular country's response to challenges and threats. Learning more about how and why actors use force in the system is an important topic to which strategic culture may provide some answers but the process of applying it is difficult. In this article, we overview historical preconditions of Iran-Israel relations, Israel's specific view of its ambitions in the region, and nowadays escalation between two countries. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is still on the agenda between the two countries, while negotiations in Vienna continue, Iran increased its enrichment up to 60 percent – the highest level in Iranian history. Iranian nuclear program is a cornerstone in the US-Iran and Iran-Israel relations, but the strategic culture of Israel still cannot adopt improvement of relations between the US and Iran, as Iranian progress in its nuclear ambitions.

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the regional dynamics that further consolidated Israel's national security in the Middle East in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, reflecting upon the nuclear challenge between Iran and Israel and Iran's expanding activities in the region.Design/methodology/approachTo prove the central argument, the study uses a conceptual framework that centers on deterrence as the main approach used by states to consolidate their influence in the Middle East region.FindingsIran's nuclear progress and influence in the region has strengthened Israel's security and fostered an unprecedented open rapprochement led by USA efforts with the Gulf regimes.Originality/valueThe paper draws particular attention to the Iran–Israel nuclear competency, and the Israeli preferred policy options regarding Iranian activities in the region amid turbulent Middle East. In addition, the paper offers insight to the regional dynamics that further consolidated Israel's national security in the region while maintaining a status of Arab vulnerability and backwardness.

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For decades, Maghrebi decision-makers have instrumentalised friend and foe narratives with regard to Israel and Iran, two of the most controversial regional actors in the MENA region. Only Morocco has official relations with Israel, only Algeria and Tunisia with Iran. A systematic analysis of news agency reports and social media shows that political elites in the Maghreb exploit public sentiment on Israel and Iran for their own domestic and foreign policy ends: distracting from socio-economic challenges, restricting freedom of expression, strengthening the security apparatus, demonising neighbours, and nation-branding. The escalation of violence in the Middle East since 7 October 2023 has amplified existing trends in the three Maghreb states concerning Israel and to a lesser extent Iran, and revealed almost unanimous public rejection of Israel and, to a lesser degree, growing sympathies for Iran. The official responses vary: Rabat is sticking to its normalisation with Israel and rejection of Iran. Algiers is seeking to position itself as a voice for global justice in the international arena, while the Tunisian president styles himself as one of the Arab World's most steadfast proponents of the "liberation" of Palestine. Decision-makers in Europe need to develop an understanding of the frus­trations in the Maghreb over Western double standards, and of the fundamentally different perspectives on Israel/Palestine. Otherwise they risk losing all their (civil society) partners in the region. At the same time, European policy-makers should be attentive when Maghrebi governments restrict freedom of expression and religious plu­ralism under the pretext of opposing Israel or Iran and - in the case of Algeria and Morocco - resort to potentially destabilising propaganda and sabre-rattling. (author's abstract)

From Israel's perspective, Iranian nuclear weapons would pose a threat to its existence, and Jerusalem has repeatedly warned that it will launch a preventive strike against Tehran's nuclear programme. According to Israel's thinking, such action would halt the possible escalation of the threat such a programme represents. Even though Iran has already crossed the threshold at which Israel has stated it would feel compelled to attack, it has not yet done so. Which factors would most likely lead to a preventive attack by Israel? This study uses constructivist, liberal and neorealist theories to infer the conditions that would result in Israel launching a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Various attack scenarios are discussed and analysed with regard to the probability of their success, and the book suggests what would have to happen for Israel to decide to launch a preventive strike on Iran.

Zusammenfassung
Dieser Aufsatz befasst sich mit dem wachsenden Einfluss Irans in der Politik des Nahen Ostens, dem iranischen Atomprogramm und den strategischen Konsequenzen der iranischen Ambitionen, die allesamt die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines direkten bewaffneten Konflikts zwischen Israel und Iran erhöhen. Er gelangt zu dem Schluss, dass Iran seine nuklearen und hegemonialen Ambitionen unvermindert fortsetzt. Etwaige Bemühungen, einen "Regimewechsel" herbeizuführen, blieben erfolglos, und Iran macht unbeirrt weiter. Daher besteht eine hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen direkten bewaffneten Konflikt zwischen Israel und Iran.

Für Israel wären iranische Nuklearwaffen eine existenzielle Bedrohung. Jerusalem hat mehrfach mit Präventivschlägen gegen Teherans Nuklearprogramm gedroht. In der israelischen Abschreckungslogik dienen sie der frühzeitigen Eskalationskontrolle. Obwohl der Iran die »roten Linien« Israels überschritten hat, ist ein Angriff bisher jedoch ausgeblieben. Welche Bestimmungsfaktoren entscheiden, wann ein israelischer Präventivschlag wahrscheinlich wird? Aus konstruktivistischer, liberaler und neorealistischer Perspektive werden plausible Bedingungen für einen Präventivschlag Israels gegen die iranischen Nuklearanlagen abgeleitet. Verschiedene Angriffsszenarien werden diskutiert und auf ihre Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeit untersucht. Das Buch liefert mögliche Antworten auf die Frage, was passieren müsste, damit sich Israel für einen Präventivschlag gegen den Iran entscheidet."In der Abhandlung wird nicht nur die herausragende wissenschaftliche Begabung beider Autoren deutlich, sondern auch ihr analytischer Scharfsinn. Es ist ihnen gelungen, ein in Politik und Medien oftmals sehr emotional betrachtetes Thema mit nüchterner Sachlichkeit aufzubereiten.Die Ergebnisse sind durchweg überzeugend und bereichern den Forschungsstand."Prof. Dr. Martin Wagener, aus dem Vorwort