Suchergebnisse

Following a substantial increase in Indica rice imports from Cambodia and Myanmar, the European Union (EU) adopted safeguard measures to reinstate the common‐customs tariff rate of 175 euros per ton from 2019, with progressive liberalization over three years. To estimate the impact of safeguard duties, this paper uses a sample of milled rice imports from 28 EU importers during 2017–20 and adopts a triple‐differences approach. The results show that safeguard duties have a significantly negative impact on import values and quantity of affected goods and a significantly positive impact on import prices. Safeguard duties appear to induce trade redirection to other third markets but produce little substitution effects for EU rice producers.

The rupiah exchange rate, import, and export are the important indicators in economy, including the Indonesia economy. The debate regarding the relationship among the exchange rate, import, and export has been persisting for several decades. Some researchers found that there is a relationship among those three and others explained that there is no correlation among them. The aim of this research is to obtain the empirical evidence of the causal relationship among the export, import, and foreign exchange rate by using the monthly data from January 2010 to April 2014. The export and import data are the export and import values in US dollar. The exchange rate data is the median exchange rates of the Indonesian Bank. The Johansen Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data. The research result shows that export and import have no causal relationship at five percent. Next, the foreign exchange rate influences the export and import at 10 percent level. The result indicates that the foreign exchange rate has small effects on the export and import. Based on the results, the government should control the balance of trade and should not make any policy that is based on the exchange rate values. Finally, it can be said that the exchange rate policy is not effective in increasing the exports and reducing the imports.

The paper and paper products sector is a crucial component of the Turkish economy, characterized by significant interactions with various other sectors. Türkiye imports substantial amounts of paper, playing a vital role in the growth and sustainability of this sector. Accurate import forecasting is essential for strategic planning and resource management. This study aims to forecast the imports of the Turkish paper sector for the period from April 2023 to March 2024 using two artificial neural network (ANN) models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF). The dataset, obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), covers 219 months of data from 2005 to 2023. The dependent variable is Türkiye's monthly import value of paper and paper products, while the independent variables include the monthly average US Dollar exchange rate, monthly imports of Türkiye, the Manufacturing Industry Production Index, the Paper Production Index, and the monthly exports of paper and paper products from Türkiye.
The MLP model forecasts that the monthly imports of paper and paper products will range between 270 to 300 million USD, while the RBF model predicts values between 268 and 321 million USD. These findings underscore the efficacy of ANNs in providing accurate and reliable forecasts. This study addresses a gap in the literature by applying ANN methods to forecast imports in the paper and paper products sector, presenting a novel approach that can assist companies in making better-informed decisions regarding inventory management, production planning, and marketing strategies. By leveraging the advanced computational power and pattern recognition capabilities of ANNs, the study aims to enhance the strategic planning processes in the paper and paper products industry.
The traditional methods often used in trade data analysis and forecasting are limited in capturing the complex and non-linear relationships present in economic data. This study's application of ANNs offers a significant advancement by utilizing models that can better handle such complexities. The accuracy of the MLP and RBF models highlights their potential as valuable tools for economic forecasting, providing insights that are crucial for optimizing supply chain operations and improving market responsiveness. The results indicate that companies can achieve better operational performance and increased customer satisfaction by effectively forecasting future import requirements.
The originality of this study lies in its methodological approach, utilizing ANN models to forecast import values in a sector where traditional methods have been predominant. This innovative approach not only contributes to the existing body of knowledge but also offers practical applications for businesses within the sector. The detailed analysis of the data, combined with the robust modeling techniques employed, provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the dynamics of paper imports and making strategic decisions based on accurate predictions. In conclusion, the study demonstrates the significant success of artificial neural networks in predicting import values for the Turkish paper and paper products sector. The findings provide valuable information that can aid companies in strategic planning, enhancing their ability to manage inventory, plan production, and develop effective market strategies. The research contributes to the literature by filling a gap with its innovative approach, offering new perspectives and practical applications for improving decision-making processes in the industry.

Recent economic geography and trade empirical studies based on monopolistic competition suggest high levels of trade price elasticities (between 3 and 11). However, price elasticity estimations in trade equations using unit values as price proxies usually lead to lower values of around unity. We show that those inconclusive results may be due to some misspecification in these equations as well as measurement errors in prices. When suitable instrumental variables are used, within a panel of industrialized countries, we obtain high price elasticities, the majority ranging from 1 to 13. The highest estimates correspond to industries producing homogeneous goods. JEL classification: C2, C3 and F1. Les élasticités prix des importations : un nouveau coup d'oeil aux résultats. Plusieurs études empiriques récentes fondées sur des modèles de concurrence monopolistique exhibent des élasticités prix estimées des échanges élevées (entre 3 et 11). Or, la plupart des élasticités prix estimées dans la littérature approchant les prix par des valeur unitaires sont plus faibles, de l'ordre de 1. Nous montrons que ces résultats non concluants pourraient provenir d'une mauvaise spécification des équations d'échanges ou d'erreurs de mesure sur les prix. Quand ceux‐ci sont correctement instrumentés, sur un panel de pays industrialisés, nous obtenons des élasticités prix élevées (de 1 à 13). Les plus fortes correspondent aux secteurs produisant des biens homogènes.

AbstractThis paper develops a monopolistic competition model of multi‐product firms to explain the effect of trade liberalization on the product mix of multi‐product exporting firms. The model shows that input‐tariff reduction leads to increases in a firm's export values, especially for products that are farther from a firm's core competency. To test the theoretical predictions, we use the merged data built upon the highly disaggregated Chinese firm‐level production data and customs data for 2000–2006. Consistent with the theory, the positive impact of input trade liberalization on export value is found to be more pronounced for peripheral products, and input‐tariff reduction also expands a firm's product scope, affecting firm's average productivity.

The hypotheses that an increase in relative price elasticities is not associated with increased import substitution and that an increase in income and foreign exchange elasticities is not associated with a greater degree of "openness" of the Cameroon economy are investigated using cointegration and error‐correction modelling. Disaggregation of total imports into raw materials, consumer, intermediate and capital goods shows that long‐run relative price elasticities of import demand are greater than short‐run values, being above unity for raw materials and consumer goods; thus leading to rejection of the first hypothesis for these categories of imports. Imports are income‐elastic for capital and intermediate goods and foreign exchange inelastic for all categories of import, implying that the Cameroon economy has been less open to trade in general. Some policy implications of the results are provided.

Krishna [89] shows that quotas may act as facilitating devices by relaxing price competition. We extend her analysis by considering the following stage game : a domestic government chooses an import quota, then a domestic and a foreign firm choose the quality of their product before engaging a price competition. Because it relaxes price competition, the quota deeply affects quality choices : when costs for quality do not rise too quickly , both firms end up choosing the same highest available quality for a wide range of quota values. It is then shown that the optimal policy for the government consists in choosing the quota level which is just sufficient to induce product imitation. Once its effects on quality choice is taken into account, the quota may thus hurt the foreign firm and increase domestic welfare.

Krishna [89] shows that quotas may act as facilitating devices by relaxing price competition. We extend her analysis by considering the following stage game : a domestic government chooses an import quota, then a domestic and a foreign firm choose the quality of their product before engaging a price competition. Because it relaxes price competition, the quota deeply affects quality choices : when costs for quality do not rise too quickly , both firms end up choosing the same highest available quality for a wide range of quota values. It is then shown that the optimal policy for the government consists in choosing the quota level which is just sufficient to induce product imitation. Once its effects on quality choice is taken into account, the quota may thus hurt the foreign firm and increase domestic welfare.

Zhou lays out the ways in which every media environment contains its own unique memory terrain of knowledge and power, indicating, for instance, the ways in which the West includes harsh criticisms of its own history and values but also has its own forms of censorship. She points to the heterogeneity of the Chinese tradition, which includes Marxism as a Western import but has also been integrating Confucianism into the Party's ideological self-understandings. In placing the Chinese opposition to Western values within a larger global trend away from democratization, she ultimately lays out a vision of an 'internationalized community of academic cosmopolites' who move from one cultural context to another yet are not defined by any particular one. Adapted from the source document.

AbstractCorrect estimates of import demand elasticities are essential for measuring the gains from trade and predicting the impact of trade policies. We show that estimates of import demand elasticities hinge critically on whether they are derived using trade quantities or trade values, and this difference is due to properties of the estimators. Using partial identification methods, we show theoretically that the upper bound on the set of plausible estimates is lower when using traded quantities, compared to the standard approach using trade values. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed using detailed product‐level data on US imports for the years 1993 to 2006. Our proposed method using traded quantities leads to smaller point estimates of the import demand elasticities for many goods and imply larger gains from trade compared to estimates based on trade values.

Using highly disaggregated firm-level customs transaction data for imports and exports in Peru over the 2000–2012 period, this paper explores the relationship between imports of intermediate inputs and firm export performance. The paper shows that greater use, variety, and quality of imported intermediate inputs is significantly correlated with higher exports, faster export growth, greater diversification of export markets, and higher quality exports (as measured by relative unit prices) at the firm level. This relationship is robust and persistent to controls for unobserved firm heterogeneity and year fixed effects. The use of imported inputs is also associated with higher productivity at the firm level. Considering the relationship between specific trade policy measures and the import performance of those exporters that are direct importers, the analysis shows that those exposed to higher tariffs and nontariff measures import less in total and exhibit lower import variety. The use of the advanced clearance procedure as the modality to clear customs for imports is favorable to the import performance of exporter-importers, in that the users of the modality import more and import a more diversified bundle of inputs than those that do not use it, even after controlling for firm size.

In 1696 the British began to keep records of their imports and exports in terms of money values. For this purpose, tables of prices were prepared first for England, and subsequently for Ireland and for Scotland, with the rates based, it is said, on market conditions at the time. Some adjustments in the initial valuations were made in the early years, but thereafter, for over a century and a half, the same prices were used in calculating "official" values. For imports and re-exports they supplied the sole basis for computing money values throughout this period. For exports of domestic produce and manufactured goods, however, a concurrent series of declared values was begun when a convoy tax was imposed ad valorem in 1798; but this series, though continued after the war, has been overshadowed by the "official" valuations which attained something of the respectability of a time-hallowed tradition. Year after year through peace and war, dearth and plenty, high prices and low, the clerks meticulously multiplied their quantities by these unchanging rates. In other words, British "official" trade values became progressively more useless as measures of current market values until the system was reformed in 1854. As a result, historians and economists are faced with frustration or distortion in any question dependent on a fairly accurate knowledge of the course, or the terms, or the balance of British trade in the period.

The inaccessibility of the other ego in Husserl's phenomenology / Paul F. Zipfel -- The other holding on to things : M. Merleau-Ponty's phenomenological approach to the problem of intersubjectivity / Luís António Umbelino -- The "inner weakness"--Merleau-Ponty on intersubjectivity, subjectivity and Husserlian phenomenology / Luís Aguiar De Sousa -- On the ecological self : possibilities and failures of self-knowledge and knowledge of others / Roberta Guccinelli -- Intersubjectivity in psychiatry / Jorge Gonçalves -- The primacy of the whole in Scheler's phenomenology of otherness / Hélder Telo -- Being-with and being-alone in the young Heidegger / Paulo Alexandre Lima -- Sartre and intersubjectivity / André Barata -- Gabriel Marcel : intersubjectivity as reciprocal availability / Elodie Malbois -- What sense does solicitude make? Rethinking with Levinas the social import of fundamental philosophical inquiry / Vlad Niculescu -- From Merleau-Ponty to Foucault (and beyond) : towards a contemporary ontology of immanence / Gianfranco Ferraro -- Shame and ideas of the self : Bernard Williams, Kant, and J.M. Coetzee / Ana Falcato -- Intersubjectivity and style in L'etranger / Grace Whistler -- The poetry in the pity / Nicolas De Warren.