Seismic Hazard Model Harmonization in Tienshan Area
In: Journal of risk analysis and crisis response, Band 9, Heft 2, S. 74
ISSN: 2210-8505
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In: Journal of risk analysis and crisis response, Band 9, Heft 2, S. 74
ISSN: 2210-8505
In: Communications in statistics. Theory and methods, Band 45, Heft 4, S. 906-921
ISSN: 1532-415X
In: Journal of economics and business, Band 45, Heft 5, S. 421-430
ISSN: 0148-6195
In: Communications in statistics. Theory and methods, Band 47, Heft 19, S. 4710-4723
ISSN: 1532-415X
In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 6089
SSRN
In: Sampson , C C , Smith , A M , Bates , P B , Neal , J C , Alfieri , L & Freer , J E 2015 , ' A high-resolution global flood hazard model ' , Water Resources Research , vol. 51 , no. 9 , pp. 7358-7381 . https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR016954
Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ∼90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ∼1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ∼5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.
BASE
Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data‐scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross‐disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ∼90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high‐resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ∼1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ∼5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2‐D only variant and an independently developed pan‐European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next‐generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step‐change improvement in model performance.
BASE
In: The journal of politics: JOP, Band 54, Heft 3, S. 685
ISSN: 0022-3816
In: The journal of politics: JOP, Band 54, Heft 3, S. 685-717
ISSN: 1468-2508
In: The journal of business, Band 74, Heft 1, S. 101-124
ISSN: 1537-5374
In: Statistical papers, Band 37, Heft 2, S. 165-176
ISSN: 1613-9798
In: Statistica Neerlandica, Band 49, Heft 3, S. 269-281
ISSN: 1467-9574
We give a new proof of the identifiably of the MPH model. This proof is constructive: it is a recipe for constructing the triple—regression function, base‐line hazard, and distribution of the individual effect—from the observed cumulative distribution functions.We then prove that the triples do not depend continuously on the observed cumulative distribution functions. Uniformly consistent estimators do not exist.Finally we show that the MPH model is even identifiable from two‐sided censored observations. This proof is constructive, too.
In: Communications in statistics. Theory and methods, Band 46, Heft 23, S. 11667-11687
ISSN: 1532-415X
In: Communications in statistics. Theory and methods, Band 46, Heft 13, S. 6433-6445
ISSN: 1532-415X
In: Communications in statistics. Theory and methods, Band 47, Heft 12, S. 2908-2918
ISSN: 1532-415X