Suchergebnisse

A perfect foresight OLG model is set up to study the dynamic response of a small open economy to a temporary fiscal impetus (bond-financed government deficit) anticipated to be closed by a mix of taxes, money finance and grant aid. The model is solved for the general mixed tax-money-aid finance case with a focus on the conclusions for the full-grant finance case in the hope to inform the ongoing debate on debt sustainability in post-HIPC Africa and to some extent crisis-prone emerging markets like Turkey and Argentina. The conclusions emanating from the model are that anticipated aid (or debt forgiveness) works like a ?proborrowing policy? inducing the economy to consume more, save less and hence run bigger current account deficits; the size of the immediate responses to the impetus as well as the long-term trajectory of the economy depends critically on whether domestic agents start off as net debtors or net creditors, outcomes being much less desirable in the former case; if future aid expects to replace taxes, consumption and the current account jump more when the real interest rate is low, consumption less important in the utility function relative to real balances, the instantaneous probability of death higher, and the bond-financed deficit regime of longer duration. To the extent that these conditions hold in the current HIPC context, and given the earlier results, the paper reinforces existing doubts over about the prospects of attaining longterm debt sustainability in Africa.

This paper discusses the implementation of the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative in Bolivia. It has been agreed in principle that the debt relief funds should be channeled to municipal governments in order to strengthen the ongoing decentralization process and to secure maximum poverty reduction effect. If everything goes according to plan, the HIPC initiative could have a substantial effect on poverty in Bolivia. However, the entire project builds on some very optimistic assumptions regarding the performance of the Bolivian economy during the next 18 years. If these optimistic assumptions do not hold Bolvivia will not reach the target debt/export ratio of 150. Even worse, if economic perfomance does not live up to expectations, there may be half-finished investment projects (roads, schools, hospitals, etc.), which cannot be completed and maintained, because the central government won't be able to deliver the funds that the donors have committed them to deliver to the municipalities.

While growth has increased in Tanzania during the past five or six years, it is still too low to have a visible impact on poverty. Indeed, recent evidence suggests that the amount of both income and non-income poverty are roughly the same as they were a decade ago. Since debt relief provided under HIPC will free government resources, the initiative will potentially help reduce poverty through larger government expenditures on social sectors. However, it is unlikely that Tanzania will be able to reach the situation projected in the Decision Point document; projections are extremely optimistic, and deviations from these are likely to lead to a rapid accumulation of debt, so debt sustainability – as reflected in the debt-to-export ratio – will not be met.

While growth has increased in Tanzania during the past five or six years, it is still too low to have a visible impact on poverty. Indeed, recent evidence suggests that the amounts of both income and non-income poverty are roughly the same as they were a decade ago. Since debt relief provided under HIPC will free government resources, the initiative will potentially help reduce poverty through larger government expenditures on social sectors. However, it is unlikely that Tanzania will be able to reach the situation projected in the decision point document: projections are extremely optimistic, and deviations from these are likely to lead to a rapid accumulation of debt, so debt sustainability—as reflected in the debt-to-export ratio—will not be met. – Tanzania ; HIPC ; debt ; growth

Die erweiterte HIPC (Heavily Indebted Poor Countries)-Initiative hat die Schuldenlast insgesamt zwar erheblich reduziert, aber auch nach Abschluss der Initiative sind einzelne HIPC-Länder immer noch oder wieder hoch verschuldet.Die hohe Verschuldung ist erstens auf lang anhaltende strukturelle Probleme in den HIPC-Ländern und zweitens auf exogene Schocks zurückzuführen. Daher werden die meisten Niedrigeinkommensländer aus eigener Kraft nicht in der Lage sein, die für eine Armutsreduzierung notwendigen finanziellen Ressourcen zu generieren und exogenen Schocks entgegenzuwirken. Für die Verwirklichung der Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) bis 2015 benötigen die Niedrigeinkommensländer noch mehr externe finanzielle Ressourcen als bisher. Handelt es sich dabei um Kredite, kommt die gleichzeitige Erreichung von Schuldentragfähigkeit und der MDGs einer Quadratur des Kreises nahe. Fünf Vorschläge stehen derzeit im Zentrum der aktuellen Debatte zur Erreichung von Schuldentragfähigkeit:1. Ein von IWF und Weltbank entwickeltes Rahmenwerk zur Erhaltung von langfristiger Schuldentragfähigkeit in Niedrigeinkommensländern.2. Ein neuer Vorschlag der amerikanischen Regierung zum 100-prozentigen Schuldenerlass der multilateralen Finanzinstitutionen für die HIPC-Länder.3. Ein neuer Vorschlag der britischen Regierung zum 100-prozentigen Schuldenerlass der multilateralen Finanzinstitutionen für Niedrigeinkommensländer.4. Ein neuer Vorschlag der britischen Regierung zur Finanzierung der MDGs: die International Finance Facility (IFF). Hierbei verschulden sich die Geber zugunsten der Entwicklungsländer auf den internationalen Kapitalmärkten.5. Ein neues Finanzierungsinstrument des IWF zur Abfederung von exogenen Schocks, das ein flexibles Element hinsichtlich der Zahlungsmodalitäten beim Auftreten von Schocks beinhaltet.

Examines key components of the World Bank's "architecture of governance" in Africa to argue that the plan has allowed a consolidation of Bank intervention into some African states. The Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) scheme adopted in 1996 & revised in 1999 provided the material basis for construction of the governance architecture. The so-called "decision point" that determines a country's eligibility for HIPC & the World Bank's lending portfolio as outlined in its Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) are described. Consideration is given to aspects of the CAS that affect the politics of external intervention, including the Sector Investment Program, Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers, previous Comprehensive Development Frameworks, & Poverty Reduction Support Credit. The processes behind the creation of these programs/strategies have become increasingly consolidated & have provided the impetus for a wider set of donor funding programs that will integrate their own lending priorities & timeframes. Difficulties involved in assessing the extent to which the governance architecture has infused itself beyond key ministries & higher levels of government are discussed. 4 References. J. Lindroth