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As recorded by EIA. Near month futures for WTI are $66.1; futures for delivery in March are $64.5 (i.e., oil futures are in backwardation). This suggests that market expectations are for declines in oil prices, and hence in gasoline prices.

Last week, I was asked about the likely future trajectory. As of the week ending today, prices still falling (from $3.23 to $3.14). On WPR, I noted that we should enjoy it while we can: Falling gas prices also help bring down inflation. "If oil prices are going to stay at the levels that they […]

Testimony issued by the Government Accountability Office with an abstract that begins "Soaring retail gasoline prices have garnered extensive media attention and generated considerable public anxiety in recent months, particularly in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Prices in many areas hit by the hurricane saw retail gasoline prices increase to over $3.00 per gallon, and in one reported case to almost $6.00 per gallon, with some gasoline stations running out of gasoline entirely. The availability of relatively inexpensive gasoline over past decades has helped foster economic growth and prosperity in the United States, so large price increases, especially if sustained over a long period, pose long-term challenges to the economy and consumers. This testimony, as requested, addresses factors that help explain how gasoline prices are determined and what key factors will likely influence trends in future gasoline prices."

Intro -- GASOLINE PRICES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON BEHAVIOR -- GASOLINE PRICES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON BEHAVIOR -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- CONSUMERS' RESPONSES TO HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES -- Driving Behavior -- Purchases of New Vehicles -- GASOLINE PRICES, POLICY, AND TOTAL GASOLINE CONSUMPTION -- End Notes -- Chapter 1 GASOLINE PRICES AND DRIVING BEHAVIOR∗ -- VOLUME OF TRAFFIC -- Expected Effects of Higher Gasoline Prices -- Findings -- Relationship between Traffic Volumes and Rail Ridership -- SPEED OF TRAFFIC -- How Much Slowing Is "Sensible" When Fuel Prices Rise? -- Findings -- APPLICABILITY OF FINDINGS TO OTHER REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES -- End Notes -- Chapter 2 GASOLINE PRICES AND VEHICLE MARKETS -- MARKET SHARES FOR CARS AND LIGHT TRUCKS -- GASOLINE PRICES AND VEHICLE MARKET SHARES -- CHANGES IN NEW-VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY AND PRICING -- CHANGES IN THE USED-VEHICLE MARKET -- End Notes -- Chapter 3 APPENDIX A. STUDY DATA -- TOTAL TRIPS -- VEHICLE SPEED -- End Notes -- Chapter 4 APPENDIX B. ANALYTICAL APPROACH AND ECONOMETRIC RESULTS -- TOTAL TRIPS -- End Notes -- Chapter 5 REFERENCES -- INDEX -- Blank Page

This report reviews the major legislative initiatives to deal with the gasoline price issue. To put these proposals in perspective, it first describes some of the factors that have led to the high prices of both crude oil and gasoline.

A letter report issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the behavior of gasoline prices in California, focusing on: (1) the extent to which retail gasoline prices spike more frequently and higher in California than they do in the rest of the United States; (2) why gasoline prices in California rise faster than they fall in response to increases and decreases in the wholesale price of gasoline; and (3) the factors that account for differences in the retail prices of gasoline between San Francisco and Los Angeles."

This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.

Retail gasoline lessee‐dealers have lobbied for the right to purchase their gasoline supplies from sources other than the lessor‐refiners with whom they have contracted. This article examines a unique data set of gasoline prices in Los Angeles, along with corresponding market‐ and station‐level characteristics, to gain some insights into whether the proposed "open‐supply" legislation would likely lower the prices charged to consumers. Controlling for market‐ and station‐level characteristics, the authors find that stations with the most alternative sources of gasoline supplies have significantly higher retail prices, casting serious doubt on the claims made by open‐supply proponents. (JEL L0, L1, L4)