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Purpose
This paper aims to develop a framework for benchmarking the maturity of public sector foresight programs and outlines strategies that program managers can use to overcome obstacles to foresight program development in government.


Design/methodology/approach
The public sector foresight benchmarking framework is informed by a bibliometric analysis and comprehensive review of the literature on public sector foresight, as well as three rounds of semi-structured interviews conducted over the course of a collaborative 18-month project with a relatively young department-level foresight program at the government of an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) country. The paper frames public sector organizations as "complex adaptive systems" and draws from other government initiatives that require fundamental organizational change, namely, "gender mainstreaming".


Findings
Nascent or less mature programs tend to be output-focused and disconnected from the policy cycle, while more mature programs balance outputs and participation as they intervene strategically in the policy cycle. Foresight program development requires that managers simultaneously pursue change at three levels: technical, structural and cultural. Therefore, successful strategies are multi-dimensional, incremental and iterative.


Originality/value
The paper addresses two important gaps in the literature on public sector foresight programs by comprehensively describing the key attributes of mature and immature public sector foresight programs, and providing flexible, practical strategies for program development. The paper also pushes the boundaries of thinking about foresight by integrating insights from complexity theory and complexity-informed organizational change theory.

Purpose
Studying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing with new millennium challenges. To propose policy recommendations about further S&T foresight programs in Iran, this paper aims to propose a three-phase process to study historical S&T foresight activities at national and sub-national level since 2005 to 2015, to analyze the state of selected activities to discover weaknesses and potential solutions and, finally, to provide strategies and tactics to improve further S&T foresight activities through an expert-based process.


Design/methodology/approach
This paper provides a three-stage methodology, designed to survey Iranian historical foresight practices (study) using scoping framework equipped with additional features, diagnosis and evaluating (analyze) and finally proposing recommendations to organize and implement more efficient further foresight practices (design) to initialize further practices in developing countries such as Iran.


Findings
Although concerns about future and the importance of foresight activities are raised however Iranian foresight community needs to be developed. As noted in Section 5, Iranian foresight facilitators and specialist are biased to limited methodologies and methods; therefore, creating foresight networks and developing communities is strongly recommended.


Research limitations/implications
The main constraint of this research was lack of valid data in the case of some Iranian S&T foresight programs.


Originality/value
Iran as a developing country needs to plan for long-run programs; however, there is no integrated study which reviews and analyzes the previous attempts to dedicate insights about how to reframe existing foresight paradigms. As foresight practices facilitate the paths toward sustainability, analyzing and diagnosis of a series of foresight practices in a devolving country may initialize designing such efforts in less developed world.

This study investigated scientific research collaborations among universities in Northeast Asia and sought to conceptualize how they might influence, and be influenced by, broader processes of regional integration in economic, political, and societal arenas. To investigate these dynamics, a program for regional collaboration initiated jointly by the governments of China, Japan, and South Korea was taken as a case study. Co-authored publication outputs, annual project reports, and interviews with program participants at Japanese universities were analyzed using selected theories from the field of International Relations. The interviews explored the ideas researchers had about the potential for the indirect effects of collaborations to spill over into other arenas, and the barriers faced which impeded regional cooperation. The findings suggest that while a number of barriers exist, the program has contributed to ongoing knowledge production and regional collaboration, societal integration, and the cultivation of a generation of regionally-networked young researchers.

A California Department of Health Services program dealt with possible health effects from Electric and Magnetic Fields (EMF) from power lines. With the advice of stakeholders, and well before any risk determinations were made, transparent policy analyses about the power grid and schools asked the question, "How confident must one be of how big an effect before one would adopt cheap or expensive EMF avoidance measures?" A risk evaluation was carried out with features that promoted transparency. It was formatted to provide a policy-neutral "degree of certainty of causality" to adherents of utilitarian, environmental justice, and libertarian policy frameworks. Though the program had many features advocated by adherents of the precautionary principle, it might be better characterized as following "Transparent Democratic Foresight Strategies," since no single principle justifies the strategies used in this participatory program, and it examined the pros and cons of options but made no recommendations, precautionary or otherwise.

PurposeThe paper aims to deal with the application of foresight in devising strategic technology policies in Thailand.Design/methodology/approachThe paper examines the foresight exercise carried out by the Thai government, through the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA) and the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, to examine the potential of the Thai industry and to devise development policies necessary to make the Thai industry successful by the year 2020.FindingsThe results of the foresight process provide a comprehensive overview of the trends of the Thai industry. The study contributes towards the formulation of feasible technological and industrial policies, which would enhance the country's ability to improve the competitive position for tomorrow.Originality/valueThe paper provides an overview of Thailand's comprehensive national foresight program.

Foresight method is gaining support around the world as a powerful tool that creates common views on future development strategies. It is characterized by a unique feature, which is the maximum participation of stakeholders and experts. The paper presents examples of the results of research carried out based upon the expert methods of foresight procedures. Special attention was paid to different methods of identification and involvement of experts in implementing the projects. The methodology of foresight projects was brought closer, with particular emphasis on those methods which are based on expert knowledge - such as the Delphi technique, panel discussion, brainstorming, STEEP and SWOT analysis methods, public consultation and the scenarios formulation. The result of foresight exploration based on knowledge of experts is the formation of a wide vision of the future development of economy and technology, which helps to make decisions on an effective, long-term strategy of the government, enterprises and scientific institutions.

The use of foresight as a tool in policy and strategic decision making increased especially in the last decade of the twentieth century in order to enhance competitiveness and innovation of nations, regions, corporations and even individuals. Coupled with this development a lot of different definitions which partly include part of the others emerged in the literature. However, it was observed that none of these definitions were capable enough to represent an integrated and holistic view about the impact of foresight on the management of the future. In this article, the integrated foresight management model is introduced which is based on the integrated management model but enriched by a knowledge‐people‐system‐organisation framework. The current list of definitions was tabulated in this new model and the vacancies in the model were filled out. This integrated foresight management model can help practitioners in designing national, regional or corporate programs in developing necessary organisational structures, deliverables and behaviours on policy, strategy and operational levels of management.

Japan has to date 50 years of experience of national Foresight activities, being performed for science, technology, and for innovation policy formulation purposes. Will Foresight in Japan, as a way of pursuing activity-oriented science and technology (S&T) studies and of contributing to policymaking, be continued? Is it even worth the huge effort? Is it really oriented toward societal issues? Combining the classic approaches and databases that exist, the Foresight procedure can be said to be unique in the world and to have the chance to indeed give answers also to societal questions - and further more to link these answers to the policy system. Whereas the first Forecast/Foresight studies were Delphi surveys only, the methodology has broadened from the 7th Foresight program onward. The year 2001 marked a strong reorganization in the S&T policy landscape, which made a stronger link to the policymaking of the Council of Science and Technology Policy (CSTP, later Council of Science, Technology Policy and Innovation, CSTI) possible. The Japanese strategy "Innovation 25" was also underscored with Foresight results, and the scenarios that had been formulated during the program. Foresight is thus more than prediction; it is rather about shaping the future. This links it directly to S&T studies and gives them a futures drive - instead of only analyzing past experiences. In 2015 the 10th Japanese Foresight was published. The paper describes this new Foresight in brief, and links it to S&T studies broadly - with another connection also made to Japanology, as the backbone of being able to analyze the original sources and to understand the wider Japanese background. Some of the Foresight results are also summarized, and an overview of previous activities in Japan given. Whereas in different countries all over the world Foresight and Horizon Scanning activities are flourishing at present, the Japanese national activities are currently at a crossroads - as policymakers there are not convinced anymore that their model of performance is still necessary in times of the internet and of an information overflow. Therefore, this contribution goes back and forth in time and ends with a brief outlook for Foresight and its actors in Japan. (Asien/GIGA)

Five academic programs in futures studies and strategic foresight collaborated over the 2012–2013 academic year for the purpose of investigating what they were teaching, and particularly what was common among the programs. Each of the five programs presented its curriculum to the other programs and answered their questions. Peter Bishop from the Houston program and Jim Dator from the Hawaii program synthesized the results with a special focus on a comparison of their two programs. Bishop presented the results at the biannual meeting of the World Futures Studies Federation in Bucharest, Romania, in July 2013.

Purpose
The organization's core approach to exploring and influencing the future, Framework Foresight, emerged from piecemeal roots in the 1990s to an established method circa 2013. Since then, it has evolved from primarily a teaching tool to a project methodology in its own right. The purpose of this paper is to explore the iterative process that has emerged in which teaching and practice inform and advance one another.


Design/methodology/approach
Innovations in technique will be highlighted and illustrated by commentary from project experience. The piece will be providing readers with a birds-eye view into the evolution of a foresight method in both theory and practice.


Findings
The continuous iteration between theory and practice, or the classroom and the client world, provides an excellent means to advance the teaching and practice of foresight. Significant changes include three horizons, inputs, drivers, archetypes, rating scenarios and strategic approach.


Practical implications
This paper suggests that closer relationships between academia and the external/client world provide practical benefit by improving teaching and providing more innovative approaches for clients.


Originality/value
The description of the development of this unique approach to doing foresight work provides an example for other programs or firms to emulate.

Trotz einer Vielzahl starker ökonomischer Effekte und Auswirkungen von Standardisierung auf die technologische Entwicklung von Innovationen, ist die Standardisierungsforschung ein recht unterrepräsentiertes Forschungsgebiet. Erst die Ergebnisse der empirischen Forschung der letzten Jahre weckten verstärkt das Interesse für die ökonomischen Funktionen und die damit einhergehenden Implikationen von Standards als auch Auswirkungen auf die Akteure des Nationalen-Innovations-Systems (NIS). Diesem Umstand ist es vermutlich zu verdanken, dass es für diesen Bereich bisher keinen systematischen Vorausschau-Ansatz (Foresight-Ansatz) zur Identifikation zukünftiger Standardisierungsthemen gab. Auch eine Betrachtung der ökonomischen und politischen Implikationen von Standardisierung, durch nationale Technology Foresight Programme, wurde bisher vernachlässigt. Untersuchungen der bisherigen Praxis zeigen zudem, dass bisher neue Normungs- und Standardisierungsthemen durch die Mitglieder bereits existierender Normungsgremien eingebracht werden, gelegentlich unterstützt durch Einzelmaßnahmen der nationalen Normungsorganisationen. Doch gerade bei neu entstehenden Disziplinen bzw. Technologiefeldern bei denen mehrere Gremien zusammenarbeiten müssten oder neue Themen noch keine Repräsentanz in der bereits vorhandenen Gremienstruktur haben, ist neben der Identifikation von möglichen Themenfeldern und ihrer speziellen Normungsthemen auch die Identifikation und Ansprache neuer Akteuren notwendig um qualitativ hochwertige Ergebnisse erarbeiten zu können. Die vorliegende kumulative Dissertation beschäftigt sich vor allem mit der Frage, wie ein solcher Foresight Ansatz aussehen sollte, um die speziellen Anforderungen an die Standardisierung zu erfüllen. Die Arbeit liefert einen Beitrag zur Erarbeitung eines solchen systematischen Ansatzes durch die Identifikation möglicher Methoden. Der Schwerpunkt der Betrachtung liegt auf dem Einsatz von Methodenkombination bzw. der Ergänzung etablierter Foresight-Methoden wie z. B. der Delphi Befragung mit Methoden aus der Wissenschafts- und Technologie-Indikatorik, sowie der Erweiterbarkeit durch Methoden der bibliometrischen Analyse, des Text-Minings und der Netzwerkanalyse. Zur Beschreibung der einzelnen Methoden werden meist explorative Analysen verwendet, die praktische Einblicke in die Durchführung solcher Analysen geben sollen. Die Grundlage für diese Dissertation bilden vier in sich geschlossene Artikel die unterschiedliche Teilaspekte der Forschungsfrage untersuchen. ; Despite the variety of potent economic effects and impacts of standardisation on the technological development of innovations, the field of standardisation research is a fairly under-represented research area. Only the results of recent years of empirical research attracted more interest for the economic functions and the associated implications of standards as well as the impact on the actors of the national innovation system (NIS). Probably due to this circumstance, there has been no sys-tematic foresight approach for identifying future standardisation issues and the consideration of economic and political implications of standardisation in national technology foresight programs has been neglected. Studies of current practice show that so far members of the existing standardisation committees produced new ideas for standardisation issues sometimes supported by specific measures of national standards bodies. But especially for emerging disciplines and technology areas in which several standardisation committees must work together or if new fields have no representation in the existing committee structure, it is necessary to identify possible topics and their specific standardisation issues and, in addition, identify new stakeholders and actors for this new field, in order to develop quality output. This cumulative dissertation deals with the question of how a foresight approach should be imple-mented to cover specific requirements of standardisation processes. The thesis contributes to the development of a systematic approach by identifying possible methods. Main focus is the use of method combinations and the expandability of established foresight methods such as Delphi surveys with method of S&T indicator analysis, and its extensibility with methods for bibliometric analysis, text mining and network analysis. To describe the various methods, mostly exploratory analyses are carried out, intended to give practical insights on how to conduct such analyses. Four coherent articles form the basis of this thesis, examining the different aspects of the research question.

The aim of this article is to provide a brief overview of the different approaches for conducting a foresight process to be able to position the key competencies developed by the Master's Degree in Strategic Foresight offered at Tecnológico de Monterrey. There are few graduate degree programs about futures studies worldwide. There is also consensus that futures studies is more a practice-based field than an established academic discipline; this stresses the importance of having a clear understanding of what contents and skills these programs are trying to teach.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to establish what foresight is, to review past usages and definitions of foresight and to synthesize them into one generic definition, in order to make the concept measurable.Design/methodology/approachA discussion on how to classify variables in the social sciences serves as the starting‐point. Next, a review of past definitions and usages of the concept foresight is followed by further analysis and then synthesizing of the generic definition. The generic definition is finally compared and contrasted with the related concepts of forecasting, strategic analysis, and intuition.FindingsForesight is defined as behavior along three dimensions: degree of analyzing present contingencies and degree of moving the analysis of present contingencies across time; degree of analyzing a desired future state or states a degree ahead in time with regard to contingencies under control; and degree of analyzing courses of action a degree ahead in time to arrive at the desired future state.Research limitations/implicationsThe article makes foresight quantitatively measurable, which in turn makes it possible to empirically measure the existence of foresight among managers and to test the relationship between foresight and organizational performance.Practical implicationsPractical foresight tools and programs, etc. can now be assessed and compared by both practitioners and researchers.Originality/valueIn identifying three fundamental behavioral dimensions of foresight, the article conceives and advances foresight as a distinct concept that can be related to several research areas, both on individual (e.g. managerial) and organizational levels.

This study explores how education and development in the skills and knowledge of foresight, innovation and enterprise (FI and E) relate to the empowerment of young individuals with respect to creating a new venture. In 2003, three groups of young persons aged between 13 and 18 years participated in a program designed for empowerment. An evaluation was conducted nine months later that provided useful insight into the impact of the education design, content and delivery. This research provides deeper insight into the way FI and E education can be used to create empowerment through the derivation of a framework that addresses entry, process and agency factors.