Suchergebnisse

Recent reproductive health surveys show that the fertility rate in Paraguay decreased precipitously from 4.3 lifetime births per woman in 1995–98 to 2.9 births in 2001–04. In this study, we establish data consistency between the 1998 and 2004 surveys by comparing a series of cohort‐specific period rates and use the Bongaarts framework of proximate determinants of fertility to demonstrate that an increase in the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) between 1998 and 2004 fully accounts for the fertility decline. Decomposition of rates shows that changes in group‐specific CPRs explain a greater proportion of the change in the overall CPR than do changes in population composition by educational attainment, urban residence, region, and language spoken at home. Finally, we show that younger cohorts of women in 2004 reported ideal completed fertility desires of less than 2.9 births, suggesting that the fertility rate is likely to continue to decrease.

SummaryAccording to the 1991/92 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey, a Tanzanian woman has, on average, 6·1 births before she reaches age 50, a decline of about one birth per woman since the early 1980s. The major proximate determinant of fertility is universal and prolonged breastfeeding. An analysis of the social and demographic correlates of fertility shows that infant and child mortality, level of education and age at first marriage are among the factors which significantly influence fertility in Tanzania.

'Auf der Grundlage einer außergewöhnlich umfangreichen Datenbank für Deutschland widmet sich der Artikel der Frage, ob es im ländlichen Deutschland vor der Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts in einem größeren Rahmen Geburtenbeschränkung gab. Verschiedene Methoden ermöglichen es, Muster von Verlängerungen der Geburtenintervalle in Abhängigkeit von der Kinderzahl aufzudecken. Ein solches Verhalten war nicht auf kleine Minderheiten beschränkt, obwohl es bei den Reformierten, bei denen sich neben der Streckung der Intervalle auch ein niedriges Alter bei der letzten Geburt nachweisen lässt, am offensichtlichsten ist. Zusätzlich kann eine Hinausschieben der folgenden Geburt auch in bestimmten Notzeiten eingetreten sein. Wichtiger als solche kurzfristigen Variationen waren indes längere Depressionsperioden der Fertilität, die in den hier untersuchten Bevölkerungen nachgewiesen werden können. In Hinsicht auf Deutschland untergraben die beiden Hauptergebnisse das Konzept einer konstant hohen Fertilität vor dem transitionsbedingten Rückgang, verbunden mit einem strikten Gegensatz zwischen 'modernem' und 'vormodernem' Verhalten in Hinblick auf Geburtenkontrolle.' (Autorenreferat)

Recent evidence from Kenya indicates that contraceptive prevalence is rising and fertility is falling. Factors related to this change include relatively high levels of education, availability of health services, exposure of modernizing media and urban lifestyles, and a greatly strengthened family planning service delivery system. (DSE)

AbstractThe general outline of the demographic transition in western Europe is reviewed as a background for understanding demographic changes occurring in Asia and Africa. Although a number of scholars have held that Africa is somehow "different" and would not follow the path to demographic transition in the near future, recent evidence from Kenya indicates that contraceptive prevalence is rising and fertility is falling. Factors related to this change include relatively high levels of education, availability of health services, exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles, and a greatly strengthened family planning service delivery system.

One theme in demographic theory is that, as society changes, human fertility levels remain high because of the continuing influence of outdated "props" to maintain existing levels of fertility. A corollary is that social upheavals might change these conditions, thus leading to a fall infertility. This article examines thirteen social crises for which there are adequate demographic data ranging from the seventeenth-century English Civil War to the fall of communism in Eastern Europe in the late twentieth century. All show marked falls in fertility arising from deferred female marriage, declining marital fertility, or both. The evidence is weak that this change constituted an adjustment of fertility to immediately preceding social conditions but stronger that there was a temporary adjustment to a new period of uncertainty about the future and a continuing adjustment to new socioeconomic and legislative conditions.

One theme in demographic theory is that, as society changes, human fertility levels remain high because of the continuing influence of outdated "props" to maintain existing levels of fertility. A corollary is that social upheavals might change these conditions, thus leading to a fall infertility. This article examines thirteen social crises for which there are adequate demographic data ranging from the seventeenth-century English Civil War to the fall of communism in Eastern Europe in the late twentieth century. All show marked falls in fertility arising from deferred female marriage, declining marital fertility, or both. The evidence is weak that this change constituted an adjustment of fertility to immediately preceding social conditions but stronger that there was a temporary adjustment to a new period of uncertainty about the future and a continuing adjustment to new socioeconomic and legislative conditions.

Throughout the Ummah, or worldwide Muslim community, fertility levels are falling dramatically for countries and subnational populations -- and traditional marriage patterns and living arrangements are undergoing tremendous change. While these trends have not gone entirely unnoticed, no more than a handful of pioneering scholars and observers have as yet drawn attention to them and their potential significance. In this essay we will detail the dimensions of these changes in fertility patterns within the Muslim world, examine some of their correlates and possible determinants, and speculate about some of their implications. Adapted from the source document.

The claim has been made, notably in a 1994 World Bank report, that the Bangladesh fertility decline shows that efficient national family planning programs can achieve major fertility declines even in countries that are very poor, and even if females have a low status and significant socioeconomic change has not occurred. This article challenges this claim on the grounds that Bangladesh did experience major social and economic change, real and perceived, over the last two decades. This proposition is supported by official data and by findings of the authors' 1997 field study in rural southeast Bangladesh. That study demonstrates that most Bangladeshis believe that conditions are very different from the situation a generation ago and that on balance there has been improvement. Most also believe that more decisions must now be made by individuals, and these include decisions to have fewer children. In helping to achieve these new fertility aims, however, the services provided by the family planning program constituted an important input.