Suchergebnisse

[Resumen] La estimación electoral mediante encuesta pasa por tiempos convulsos. En pleno proceso de adaptación a un sistema multipartidista nuevo, se alzan voces críticas que juzgan las encuestas preelectorales en función de su falta de acierto respecto a los resultados finales de los comicios. Esas voces que entienden y analizan las estimaciones como pronósticos, no se fijan en otros aspectos más técnicos que permitan discernir la calidad de una buena, regular o mala encuesta. No lo hacen porque los aspectos técnicos públicos siguen siendo exclusivamente formales, y porque los aspectos importantes responden a un know how oculto dentro de las empresas, quienes defienden las fórmulas de imputación, calibración y estimación como auténticas patentes. Esta investigación pretende, mediante el análisis del caso práctico de las elecciones municipales de Santiago de Compostela en el año 2015, mostrar los procesos generalmente utilizados en los análisis de estimación electoral. Tratando de comprobarse así los principales errores que han venido tomando forma en las estimaciones más recientes. Además, se presenta una propuesta de imputación a indecisos y opacos en las etapas finales de la estimación con la aplicación de un análisis discriminante. ; [Resumo] A estimación electoral mediante enquisa pasa por tempos convulsos. En pleno proceso de adaptación a un sistema multipartidista novo, álzanse voces críticas que xulgan ás enquisas preelectorais en función da súa falta de acerto respecto aos resultados finais dos comicios. Esas voces que entenden e analizan as estimacións como pronósticos, non se fixan noutros aspectos máis técnicos que permitan discernir a calidade dunha boa, regular ou mala enquisa. Non o fan porque os aspectos técnicos públicos seguen sendo exclusivamente formais, e porque os aspectos importantes responden a un know how oculto dentro das empresas, quen defenden as fórmulas de imputación, calibración e estimación como auténticas patentes. Esta investigación pretende, mediante a análise do caso práctica das eleccións municipais de Santiago de Compostela no ano 2015, mostrar os procesos xeralmente utilizados nas análisies de estimación electoral. Tratando de comprobarse así, os principais erros que veñen tomando forma nas estimacións máis recentes. Ademais, preséntase unha proposta de imputación a indecisos e opacos nas etapas finais da estimación coa aplicación dunha análise discriminante. ; [Abstract] Political polls are passing through rough times. In the middle of an adaptation process to a multiparty new system, critical voices are rising to judge pre-election surveys for its lack of success. Those voices, understanding estimations as forecasts, don´t focus on technical aspects that let us discern the quality of a survey. That´s because technical aspects remain formal, and because the most important aspects are a hidden know how inside the companies, who defend imputation, calibration and estimation formula as patents. This research tries, through the analysis of local elections in Santiago de Compostela in 2015, to show the often used processes in electoral estimations. Moreover, it is presented an imputation porposal for undecided and opaques in the last stages of the estimation with the application of a discriminant analysis. ; Traballo fin de mestrado (UDC.SOC). Socioloxía aplicada: investigación social e de mercados. Curso 2016/2017

In Japan, "Pointing and Calling" is a known safety management method to prevent mistakes and ensure safety. This study constructed a new check system, "Verification Meeting/ Simple Verification Meeting," that is based on the Pointing and Calling system and aims to prevent incorrect cost estimates for public works projects. It also contributes to improved staff morale and professional development. The new check system has five novel items compared with conventional cost estimation verification methods. The proposed system was put into actual use in Japan, during which time necessary improvements were made. As a result, there were no mistakes in cost estimation for about three years at the Port and Harbor Bureau of a certain city in Japan where the first author of this study worked. The system was further refined and could be adapted for use by all local governments, including those with few staff members.

In Japan, "Pointing and Calling" is a known safety management method to prevent mistakes and ensure safety. This study constructed a new check system, "Verification Meeting/ Simple Verification Meeting," that is based on the Pointing and Calling system and aims to prevent incorrect cost estimates for public works projects. It also contributes to improved staff morale and professional development. The new check system has five novel items compared with conventional cost estimation verification methods. The proposed system was put into actual use in Japan, during which time necessary improvements were made. As a result, there were no mistakes in cost estimation for about three years at the Port and Harbor Bureau of a certain city in Japan where the first author of this study worked. The system was further refined and could be adapted for use by all local governments, including those with few staff members.

Abstract
The long-recognised spurious regression problem can lead to mistaken inference in panel instrumental variable estimation. Spurious correlations arising from correlated cycles in finite time horizons can make irrelevant instruments appear strong with signable consequences for estimated instrumental variable coefficients, or interfere with valid inference of causal effects from instrumental variable coefficients estimated using relevant instruments. The inclusion of time fixed effects in interacted specifications does not always resolve these problems. We demonstrate these concerns by revisiting recent studies of the causal origins of conflict. We offer diagnostic and corrective recommendations for avoiding the pitfalls arising from time series exhibiting persistence.

n Japan, "Pointing and Calling" is a known safety management method that is used to prevent mistakes and ensure safety. This study constructed a new check system, "Verification Meeting/ Simple Verification Meeting", that is based on the Pointing and Calling system and aims to prevent incorrect cost estimations for projects of public works. It also contributes to improved staff morale and professional development. The new check system has five novel items compared with conventional verification methods of cost estimation. The proposed system was put into actual use in Japan, during which time necessary improvements were made. As a result, no mistakes in cost estimation were noted for about three years at the Port and Harbor Bureau of a city in Japan,where the first author of this article worked. The system was further refined and could be adapted for use by all local governments, including those with few staff members.

In the political and war crisis which embraced Bosnia and Herzegovina in the spring of 1992 with an end of war hostilities in the autumn of 1995 when the "Dayton Peace Agreement" emerged (November 1995), a media war occurred. From the very beginning, this war had an international character. The question on the number of war victims (killed and missing) "exploded" in June of 1993 when Haris Silajdzic stated that there had been 200000 dead among the Muslims. This figure uncritically became the basis for all later media and local "empirical truths" on the number of victims. All statistical and demographic disciplines were exploited to support, if not prove, the propaganda standpoints. Objectivity was oppressed by an ugly "face of the war". Having in mind the experience of the Second World War in Yugoslavia the question on the number of victims does not cease to be topical for decades after the end of the war. Bosnia and Herzegovina is more than a confirmation. This question seems to intervene (and in a way "feed of") with the most difficult political and international questions and court trials. ("International Court of Justice", indictment of Bosnia and Herzegovina against The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, namely Serbia). The methodological analysis of the most important works which deal with the question of the number of victims in the Bosnian war (above all, those done by Bosnian institutes and authors) indicate the "mistakes" made by the character of these works (propaganda). The manipulation with statistical methods and numbers is not new. Methodological and numerical traps can slip even to the most informed. The use of statistics and social science in court trials seems to show Janus's face of science: on one side the authentic "moral passion" of researchers finds great sense, and on the other side special interests strive to impose themselves through the (most refined) instrumentation of science and knowledge. (The example of Mr. Patrick Ball's testification in the trials in the Hague Tribunal is edifying as regards the question of the reasons for the Albanian exodus in the war crisis on Kosovo and Metohia in 1999).This analysis points out to the crucial defects of every statistical (and demographic) procedure of deriving the number of war victims in the absence of a comparable population census after the war (which did not take place in Bosnia and Herzegovina). The qualification of the quality of the 1991 Census in Bosnia and Herzegovina is briefly given (the author was an expert and organizational leader of all operations of last censuses in former Yugoslavia, 1991). Probably the most distinctive point, in the continuous course of deriving numbers and analysis on the number of victims in the Bosnian war so far, is the text of George Kenney published in the NY Times Magazine, April 23rd 1995.

Для оценки эффективности различных видов вооружения и военной техники систематизирована терминология, понятия, логика анализа и исследования, которые можно применять для всех видов вооружения и военной техники, их действий и взаимодействий при достижении поставленной цели. Показано, как математически описывать цель с помощью вектора цели, задающего параметры исследуемых систем при оценке эффективности вооружения и военной техники. Приведены примеры составления и анализа вектора цели и его взаимосвязь с вектором состояния и вектором ошибки. ; У статті отримані і вирішені рівняння вірогідності для трьох станів рухомої системи військової техніки: марш, знаходження в позиційному районі, поразка. Рівняння складені за допомогою використання математичного апарату марківських випадкових процесів. Отримані функції трьох вірогідності стану рухомої системи можуть застосовуватися для будь-якого виду відновлюваної або невідновної рухомої системи військової техніки. ; For estimation of efficiency different type armses and military technology is systematized terminology, notions, logic of the analysis and studies, which possible use for all type of the arms and military technology, their action and interaction at achievement put(deliver)ed to purposes. It Is Shown, as mathematically describe the purpose by means of vector of the purposes, assigning parameters of the under investigation systems at estimations of efficiency of the arms and military technology. Cite an instance formation and analysis of the vector to purposes and his(its) intercoupling with vector of the condition and vector of the mistake.

This article provides a new maximum-likelihood estimator for selection models with dichotomous dependent variables when identical factors affect the selection equation and the equation of interest. Such situations arise naturally in game-theoretic models where selection is typically nonrandom and identical explanatory variables influence all decisions under investigation. When identical explanatory variables influence selection and a subsequent outcome of interest, the commonly used Heckman-type estimators identify from distributional assumptions about the residuals alone. When its own identifying assumption is reasonable, the new estimator allows the researcher to avoid the painful choice between identifying from distributional assumptions alone and adding a theoretically unjustified variable to the selection equation in a mistaken attempt to "boost" identification. The article uses Monte Carlo methods to compare the small-sample properties of the estimator with those of the Heckman-type estimator and ordinary probit.

Abstract.  George Reisman misrepresents macroeconomists' estimation of national income. He fails to distinguish between intermediate goods and factors of production, and he does not correctly recognize macroeconomists' derivation of the net domestic or national product. His concept of gross national product is also grossly mistaken. This note offers a correction for his confusion.

Acknowledgments This paper was developed within the scope of the IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, funded by the DFG/FAPESP, and supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS). The first author thanks Dr Roman Ovsyannikov for valuable discussions regarding estimation of the mistake probability. ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF

Acknowledgments This paper was developed within the scope of the IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, funded by the DFG/FAPESP, and supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS). The first author thanks Dr Roman Ovsyannikov for valuable discussions regarding estimation of the mistake probability. ; Peer reviewed ; Preprint ; Publisher PDF

Another crisis requires mobilization of all knowledge, including experience of the mistakes. The crisis of 2008 is the actual guidance for minimizing crisis consequences. Of course, the reasons for the current and the previous crisis are fundamentally different, and are mostly regional rather than global, by nature. But the consequences for both are the same – fall of living standards, the collapse of the banking system, reduction of economic diversification. That is why it becomes so important for government to make both a rational and effective anti-crisis plan. The global financial crisis of 2008, which is under our consideration, originated in the United States as a result of the mortgage crisis. The phenomenon was spreading rapidly in the rest of the world. In particular, Russia immediately took a number of measures to reduce the negative effects in the first months. Subsequently, all the activities have merged into a single set of measures called "Anti-crisis program of the Russian Federation" (2009) and "The main directions of anti-crisis measures of the Russian Federation for 2010". Programs had both positive and negative effects on the economic recovery. However, in total, they have helped Russia to overcome the crisis stage without catastrophic losses, which was even noted by the World Bank. The experience of some foreign countries is also subject to review because of their effectiveness and difference from the Russian one. It also complements the picture of the anti-crisis measures and makes it more solid and global. Tracing the history of the 2008 crisis, we can conclude that the state, fighting the crisis phenomena, was concerned with statistical indicators only, without regard for the lives of their citizens. In this scenario, the developed countries must learn to overcome the crisis with minimal state intervention, but a strong motivating effect. ; Очередной кризис требует мобилизации всех знаний, в том числе опыта совершенных ошибок. Кризис 2008 г. является наиболее актуальным руководством по минимизации последствий кризисных явлений. Конечно, причины нынешнего и предыдущего кризиса принципиально разные и носят преимущественно региональный, а не мировой, характер. Но последствия у обоих одни и те же – падение уровня жизни, крах банковской системы, снижение диверсификации экономики. Именно поэтому для правительства становится так важно составить рациональный и эффективный антикризисный план. Рассматриваемый нами мировой финансовый кризис 2008 г. берет свое начало в США как следствие ипотечного кризиса. Явление быстро распространяется на остальные страны мира. В частности, Россия в первые месяцы сразу же предпринимает ряд мер для сокращения отрицательных последствий. В последствии все мероприятия слились в единый комплекс мер под названием «Программа антикризисных мер Правительства Российской Федерации» (2009 г.) и «Основные направления антикризисных действий Правительства Российской Федерации на 2010 г.». Программы оказали как положительное, так и отрицательное влияние на восстановление экономики. Однако в общей сумме они помогли преодолеть России кризисный этап без катастрофических потерь, что было даже отмечено Мировым банком. Опыт некоторых зарубежных стран также является предметом рассмотрения в силу своей эффективности и отличности от российского. Он так же дополняет картину антикризисных мер и делает ее более цельной и глобальной. Прослеживая историю кризиса 2008 года, можно прийти к выводу, что государство, борясь с явлениями кризиса, было озабочено только статистическими показателями, без оглядки на жизнь своих граждан. При таком раскладе развитые страны должны научиться преодолевать кризисные ситуации с минимальным вмешательством государства, но сильным мотивирующим эффектом.