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Cover -- CONTENTS -- TOWARDS A NEW MONETARY POLICY REGIME IN MOZAMBIQUE -- A. Context and Background -- B. The Way Forward -- C. Conclusions -- BOX -- 1. Transiting to a New Monetary Policy Regime -- FIGURES -- 1. Deviations of Actual Reserve Money and Average Inflation from Target/Projection -- 2. Correlation Between Broad Money Growth and Inflation (2000M1-2017M6) -- 3. Correlation Coefficient Between Broad Money Growth and Inflation -- 4. Velocity of Money -- 5. Real FPC Rate -- 6. Confidence Index and Yield Curve Slope -- 7. Demand Prospects Index and Yield Curve Slope -- 8. Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission (1- exchange rate -- 2- credit -- 3- interest rate), January 2002-June 2017 -- 9. Main Reason for MPC Decisions -- 10. Risks Identified in the MPC Report -- References -- THE GOVERNANCE CHALLENGE IN MOZAMBIQUE -- A. Background -- B. Cost of Corruption -- C. Strategies to Mitigate Corruption -- D. Summary -- BOXES -- 1. Recent Corruption Cases -- 2. Delayed Multi-Jurisdictional Cases -- 3. Legal Framework -- 4. Institutional Architecture -- FIGURES -- 1. Selected Governance Indices -- 2. Mozambique and SSA: Indicators of Corruption, Governance, Regulatory Quality and Judicial System -- 3. Public Investment, 2007-2016 -- 4. Banking Sector Development and Corruption Risks -- References -- MACROFINANCIAL LINKAGES AND BANK VULNERABILITIES -- A. Introduction -- B. Microfinancial Linkages in Mozambique -- C. Banking Sector Developments and Assessment of Vulnerabilities -- D. Excess Leverage of State-Owned Enterprises and Implications for Banks -- E. Conclusions and Recommendations -- BOX -- 1. Debt Viability Check for SOEs and Impact on Banks -- FIGURES -- 1. Macrofinancial Linkages -- 2. Network Map of Sectoral Linkages, Net Position, 2017Q3 -- 3. Banking Financial Indicators -- 4. Credit-to-GDP Gap.

KEY ISSUESContext and outlook. Mozambique's macroeconomic outlook remains favorable andthe PSI-supported program is broadly on track?all end-2013 assessment criteria were met and the structural reform program is on track. Economic growth is robust and inflation remains low. In spite of risks from the uncertain global outlook, growth is expected to be sustained in the medium term by the natural resource boom and infrastructure investment. Risks associated with the political/security environment moderated in early 2014, with general elections scheduled for mid-October.Short-term policy framework

Context and policy challenges. Mozambique's macroeconomic performance remainsrobust, with strong growth and low inflation. In spite of the heightened risks from anuncertain global outlook, growth is expected to be broad-based in the medium termand boosted by the natural resource boom and infrastructure investment.Short-term policy framework. The main short-term challenge is to maintain thegrowth momentum while preserving fiscal and debt sustainability. The 2014 fiscal stanceis expansionary, and fiscal consolidation needs to be initiated in the 2015 budget torestore prudent fiscal management. W

Mozambique is an economic success story in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Its remarkable achievements offer valuable lessons to other low-income countries in a post-stabilization economic phase, including how they can efficiently manage a scaling up of foreign aid aimed at poverty reduction. Of special interest to other Sub-Saharan countries are the book's discussions of Mozambique's progress toward consolidating macroeconomic and financial stability, and the challenges it faces in ensuring long-term sustainability, creating a virtuous cycle of natural resource use, and implementing second-generation structural reforms to sustain its growth. This book also provides a summary of the most recent research on issues related to post-stabilization economics in SSA

In 1989, Mozambique continued to be squeezed by two major forces: the South African-backed Renamo and the pressing demands of the International Monetary Fund for further economic reforms. The paper discusses the economic crisis of the country, the fifth party congress of the Frelimo, President Chissano's peace initiative to end the country's 14-year-old war, continuation of this war among other topics. (DÜI-Sen)

Der erste Beitrag unter dem Titel "Strategic defeat or tactical retreat?" analysiert die Reformbemühungen der Regierung, die ein Ende der katastrophalen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung herbeiführen sollen. Er stellt zur Diskussion, ob Mosambik langfristig zur Aufgabe seiner sozialistischen Positionen tendiert oder ob mit der Übernahme des von IWF und Weltbank gesponserten Anpassungsprogramms nur ein vorübergehend taktisches Vorgehen vorliegt. + Der zweite Beitrag "Classes in formation?" untersucht das Anpassungsprogramm im einzelnen und versucht zu klären, ob die veränderte Wirtschaftspolitik zu einer Klassengesellschaft in Mosambik führen wird, in der die Mittelschicht privater Unternehmer sowie die politische Elite die Nutznießer sind. (DÜI-Fwr)

In this paper we try to assess the nature, size and consistency of recent economic growth in Mozambique. We attempt to verify whether and to what extent this growth is unprecedented as has been claimed. We look at the available data to assess whether this growth is even across sectors and GDP components. Finally we try to assess whether by any indication we can say if observed growth is balanced and, if not, to what extent economic policy is actually responsible. We argue that economic growth in Mozambique still appears to be out of balance, weak, uneven, and unsustainable, calling for a re-orientation of economic policy able to guarantee a more balanced and even growth across the economy. We also argue that, as a stable and steady economic growth is not warranted, Government action should be inspired to broaden its sets of instruments and goals, and that international agencies and donors should help it adopt the consequent policies. The spiral of debt, aid and conditionality certainly cripples Mozambique's Government autonomy, but it is only by broadening its sets of instruments and goal that Mozambique's economy will embark on a sustainable growth path.