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This dissertation explores the role of exogenous shocks such as economic shocks and natural disasters in producing political unrest in the form of anti-government protests and ethnic riots. It is integrated by three articles, each covering a different topic. The first article argues that economic shocks play a crucial role in protest mobilization in rentier states conditional on weaker repressive capacity or higher taxation. Empirically, it conducts a cross-national study of high-resource dependent states in the period of 1995-2014. The second article contends that there is a variation in a degree to which a country's regions are exposed to economic shocks. A higher regional exposure to economic shocks is argued to increase the likelihood of regional anti-government protest at in competitive autocracies. The argument is tested in a subnational analysis of Russia using original dataset of regional anti-government protest and regional economic data in the period of 2007-2015. The third article develops a theory of natural disasters and ethnic riots. It argues that climate-induced meteorological disasters increase chances of ethnic riots because of declined state capacity that creates uncertainty about enforcement of existing ethnic contracts, and feelings of uncertainty result in strong group categorization, stereotyping and polarization. The argument is tested in a subnational study of Hindu-Muslim riots in Indian states in the period of 1951-2015. The results of the studies in this dissertation offer three key findings: (1) higher resource rents lower protest likelihood in autocratic rentier states with higher repressive capacity; (2) regional unemployment is a strong predictor of anti-government protest; (3) natural disasters in the form of precipitation and temperature anomalies increase chances of ethnic riots. The findings suggest a conclusion that exogenous shocks are important predictors of anti-government protest and ethnic riots. ; 2019-05-01 ; Ph.D. ; Sciences, Pol, Scty and Intl Afrs, Schl of ; Doctoral ; This record was generated from author submitted information.

AbstractDo voters react to shocks that are beyond the control of politicians? We consider the case of the assassination of a senior politician in India, in the middle of an election. We find that Congress(I), the party of the assassinated leader, gained significantly from this event through increased vote shares and improved likelihood of victory. Sympathy towards Congress(I) and changed perceptions about governing abilities of the contesting parties in the post-assassination environment played crucial roles in determining the final outcomes of the election. Our results imply that even in environments where voters are expected to make their decisions based on prior performance of parties, an unanticipated, random, exogenous event can affect voting behaviour.

The study focuses on the idiosyncrasies of contemporary exogenous shocks and their macroeconomic role as determinants of the business cycle dynamics. On the one hand, it analyzes the place of exogenous shocks in contemporary research approaches. On the other hand, it derives the key parameters of those types of shocks that determine their significant role as contemporary fluctuation factors, decisively influencing macroeconomic activity. The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2010 Haiti earthquake are used in the scientific investigation.

AbstractThe recent civil war literature suggests that negative economic shocks in low-income countries increase the risk of civil war. Foreign aid can be an effective conflict-prevention tool in times of severe economic conditions. Aid cushions government spending from the downward pressures of economic shocks, providing recipient governments with resources they can use to make rebellion a less attractive option for aggrieved domestic groups. Using Official Development Assistance (ODA) data covering 1990 through 2004, we find that foreign aid appears to be a useful tool for preventing civil wars in the wake of negative economic shocks, and as such aid should be assessed by donors with these conflict-suppressing aspects in mind.

AbstractVenezuela was the fastest‐growing economy of the twentieth century until the 1970s, and it still has the world's largest known oil reserves. Yet in recent years, it has experienced the greatest economic collapse in South America's history, condemning 96 per cent of its people to poverty. Much of the existing literature blames foreign sanctions or a decline in oil prices, or both. We disagree, arguing the breakdown was caused by explicit institutional changes that politicised the oil industry and replaced market mechanisms with central planning. The institutional restructuring also disregarded monetary stability and basic infrastructure, including electricity supply, telecommunications, and even security.

AbstractThe study of crime trends has proceeded along two paths: 1) normal science investigations of slow‐moving and tractable changes in crime rates and explanatory conditions and 2) research encounters with unexpected and abrupt changes in crime rates resulting from exogenous shocks. I draw from my research on the relationship between crime rates and changing macroeconomic conditions to illustrate the pains and pleasures of studying crime trends with the tools of normal science. I describe my exploratory investigations of the recent homicide rise in the United States to underscore the theoretical importance and methodological challenges of research on exogenous shocks to crime rates. Finally, I hope to convey to the next generation of criminologists the intellectual excitement that comes from the study of crime trends.