Suchergebnisse

This paper analyzes the impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on sovereign bond returns of 25 emerging markets from 1993 to 2016. Under a BIT, foreign investors can use an international arbitration scheme to enforce compensation claims against the domestic government in case of direct or indirect expropriation. We focus on the so far unexplored effects of legal risk associated with BITs on sovereign creditworthiness. We find small unconditional effects of BITs on sovereign bond returns. Taking the heterogeneity of BITs and political regimes into account, we find robust and strong negative effects. In countries with high political risk of expropriation (measured by low executive constraints), we find that the implementation of investor-friendly BITs is associated with a significantly negative impact on sovereign bond returns, accounting for roughly 15% of bond returns' standard deviation.

Default investment options in retirement plans are a potent influence on member choice, however little is known about how plans set them. We investigate how retirement plan providers choose default investment strategies for passive members. We interview plan executives and survey members during a review of default settings in 2013-14 prompted by a change in the regulation of the Australian retirement system. Passive plan members are different from active members in ways that matter for investment strategy. Passive members are less willing to take financial risks; they are also younger, less wealthy and more often female. Executives say they design defaults with passive members in mind, but they seem to overlook some key factors. For example, plan executives set high risk exposure in default investment strategies. Executives also assume motivations for defaulting that do not match those reported by members. Most plan executives think of passive members as uninterested in their retirement savings but passive members say they trust their plans, and lack skill rather than interest. The heterogeneity, trust and low skill of passive members make opting out of the default less likely and smart defaults more appealing. ; This research was jointly funded by the Centre for International Finance and Regulation, the Australian National University, the University of Technology Sydney and UNSW Australia under CIFR Project T004. The Centre for International Finance and Regulation is funded by the Commonwealth and NSW Governments, and supported by other Consortium members.

This paper analyzes the impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on sovereign bond returns of 25 emerging markets from 1993 to 2016. Under a BIT, foreign investors can use an international arbitration scheme to enforce compensation claims against the domestic government in case of direct or indirect expropriation. We focus on the so far unexplored effects of legal risk associated with BITs on sovereign creditworthiness. We find small unconditional effects of BITs on sovereign bond returns. Taking the heterogeneity of BITs and political regimes into account, we find robust and strong negative effects. In countries with high political risk of expropriation (measured by low executive constraints), we find that the implementation of investor-friendly BITs is associated with a significantly negative impact on sovereign bond returns, accounting for roughly 15% of bond returns' standard deviation.

This paper analyzes the impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on sovereign bond returns of 25 emerging markets from 1993 to 2016. Under a BIT, foreign investors can use an international arbitration scheme to enforce compensation claims against the domestic government in case of direct or indirect expropriation. We focus on the so far unexplored effects of legal risk associated with BITs on sovereign creditworthiness. We find small unconditional effects of BITs on sovereign bond returns. Taking the heterogeneity of BITs and political regimes into account, we find robust and strong negative effects. In countries with high political risk of expropriation (measured by low executive constraints), we find that the implementation of investor-friendly BITs is associated with a significantly negative impact on sovereign bond returns, accounting for roughly 15% of bond returns' standard deviation.