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The performance of the Gambian economy has been strong in recent years. The authorities noted that in addition to providing financial resources, the program has helped to restore compliance with the rules on government borrowing from the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) following securitization arrangements between the government and the CBG, which allowed for CBG bridge financing in the absence of programmed EU budget support, and started TA in tax policy and administration, PFM, and liquidity forecasting. In the financial sector, progress has been made to preserve the solvency of banks

An updated DSA indicates that The Gambia is in external debt distress, though its public debt is deemed sustainable on a forward-looking basis. The external debt service-to-exports and -to-revenue ratios breach their indicative thresholds by large margins in the near term and signal major liquidity pressures. However, once these pressures are addressed by the prospective debt relief and the authorities' fiscal consolidation and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform program, the PV of total public debt would be brought below its threshold over the medium term. On the upside, debt relief discussions with external creditors are progressing and could unlock additional budget support. Downside risks mainly relate to the political environment and fiscal discipline, the unravelling of which could destabilize the economy and worsen the outlook for public debt.

Several studies have identified the impact of total public debt on inflation. These studies are based on the assumption of a symmetric relationship between these variables. However, because different governments react to changes in total public debt (positive or negative) differently, this study employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique to investigate the nature of the link between total public debt and inflation in the Gambia for the period from 1978 to 2019. The results indicate an asymmetric relationship between total public debt and inflation, irrespective of whether the analysis was conducted in the short run or long run. The coefficient of a positive shock in total public debt is statistically significant in the short run and in the long run, suggesting the inflationary effect of positive variation in total public debt in the Gambia. On the other hand, the effect of a negative shock is not statistically significant in the short run or in the long run. These findings reinforce the need for government to approach increase in public debt with caution to minimise volatility in inflation. Overall, this study provides a fresh insight into the optimal estimation technique for testing the public debt–inflation nexus through a nonlinear approach.

An updated debt sustainability analysis (DSA) indicates that The Gambia is currently in external debt distress and that public debt is unsustainable. Both external and domestic debt are very high, and a significant pipeline of already-contracted loans poses risks to solvency. External debt stock indicators have deteriorated since the March 2018 DSA, and all five external debt burden indicators breach their indicative thresholds by large margins and for an extended period in the passive scenario and in the active (baseline) scenario. The stress test results illustrate the country's high vulnerability to shocks, total public debt is expected to remain elevated throughout the projection period, rollover risks associated with the short maturity of domestic debt are high, and contingent liabilities related to SOE debt pose additional risks. Furthermore, the sustained primary surpluses needed to reduce public debt would be politically and socially challenging given The Gambia's substantial development needs. New borrowing would need to be on highly concessional terms and reserved for the very highest priority projects for which grant-financing is not available. The government should also refrain from offering any guarantees. An illustrative scenario shows how debt relief (comprising a deferral of principal due to pluri-lateral, bilateral official and private creditors and a softening of the terms of the already contracted loans)—complementing the implementation of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and debt strategy—could be instrumental in restoring debt sustainability.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- BACKGROUND -- RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS -- ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RIKS -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Near-Term Agenda--Rebuilding Confidence -- B. Medium-Term Agenda--Addressing Risks and Enhancing Growth -- C. Other Surveillance Issues -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Main Recommendations of the 2013 Article IV Consultation -- 2. The Impact of Exchange Rate Directives -- 3. Exchange Rate Assessment -- 4. Possible Measures to Create Permanent Budget Saving -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments, 2009-15 -- 2. Indicators of Public Debt Under Staff's Proposed Baseline and Alternative Scenarios, 2015-35 -- 3. Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Staff's Proposed Baseline and Alternative Scenarios, 2015-35 -- 4. Rapid Credit Facility Baseline, Active Policy and Alternative Scenario -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic Indicators -- 2. Statement of Central Government Operations (In millions of local currency) -- 3. Statement of Central Government Operations (In percent of GDP) -- 4. Monetary Accounts (In millions of local currency) -- 5. Monetary Accounts (Percent change) -- 6. Balance of Payments (In millions of U.S. dollars) -- 7. Balance of Payments (In percent of GDP) -- 8. Quantitative Targets Under the Staff-Monitored Program -- 9. Structural Agenda, 2015 -- 10. Risk Assessment Matrix -- ANNEXES -- I. External Stability Assessment -- II. Growth Episodes in The Gambia's Policies to Boost Medium-Term Growth Prospects -- CONTENTS -- RELATIONS WITH THE FUND -- JOINT BANK-FUND WORK PROGRAM -- STATISTICAL ISSUES.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- ASSESSMENT OF MACROFINANCIAL LINKAGES -- A. Background -- B. Overview of Macrofinancial Linkages -- C. Banking Sector Characteristics and Risks -- D. Testing Banks' Resilience to Adverse Linkages -- E. Financial Frictions and Remedial Measures -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Overview of Net Arrears Between Sectors of the Economy -- 2. Real Credit to the Private Sector -- 3. Decomposition of Bank Assets -- 4. Bank (In-)Efficiency, T-Bill Rates, and Energy Prices -- 5. Corporate-to-Government Ratio vs. RWA Density -- 6. Bank Loans-to-Total Assets Ratio in Regional Comparison, end-2015 -- 7. Ratio of Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (including SOEs) to Government Exposures -- TABLE -- 1. Capital Adequacy Ratio Under Sensitivity Tests -- FINANCIAL BENCHMARKING OF THE GAMBIA -- A. Background -- B. Literature Review on Financial Development, Inclusion and Deepening -- C. Methodological Approach to Assess Financial Development -- D. Empirical Analysis of Level of Financial Development -- E. Policies to Support Financial Development -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Share of Banking Industry Assets and Deposits -- 2. Financial Inclusion in The Gambia -- 3. Financial Deepening in the Gambia -- 4. Financial Efficiency in The Gambia -- TABLES -- 1. Financial System Size and Ownership in 2017 -- 2. List of Comparable Peer Countries -- FISCAL STRESS TESTS FOR THE GAMBIA -- A. Background -- B. Fiscal Stress Test Scenario -- C. Fiscal Implications of Shock -- D. Contingent Liabilities (CLs) and Fiscal Balance -- E. Fiscal Stress Tests and Macrofinancial Linkages and Channels -- F. Key Policy Recommendations -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Public Debt to GDP Forecasts -- 2. Fiscal Risk Realizations -- 3. Fiscal Stress Impact on Key Macroeconomic Variables -- 4. Bank Regulatory Capital Ratios -- 5. Bank Capital and Liquidity Needs.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- BACKGROUND -- RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS -- ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- DEBT SUSTAINABILITY -- FIRST REVIEW OF THE STAFF-MONITORED PROGRAM -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- FISCAL POLICIES -- STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISE REFORMS -- MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES AND FINANCIAL SECTOR STABILITY -- PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH -- NEW NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN PROVIDES KEY STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Strategy for Addressing Fragility -- 2. Fiscal Stress Tests in The Gambia -- 3. Macrofinancial Challenges: Managing the Rebound in Private Sector Credit -- 4. Poverty and Inequality in The Gambia -- FIGURES -- 1. Social and Fragility Indicators, 2005-16 -- 2. Recent Economic Developments, 2012-17 -- 3. Fiscal and Financial Sector Indicators, 2012-17 -- 4. Medium Term Outlook, 2016-23 -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2015-23 -- 2. Statement of Central Government Operations, 2015-23 (Millions of local currency) -- 3. Statement of Central Government Operations, 2015-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 4. Monetary Accounts, 2015-23 (Millions of local currency) -- 5. Monetary Accounts, 2015-23 (Percent change) -- 6. Balance of Payments, 2015-23 (Millions of U.S. dollars) -- 7. Balance of Payments, 2015-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 8. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2014-17 -- 9. Risk Assessment Matrix -- ANNEXES -- I. External Sector Assessment -- II. Correspondent Banking Relations for The Gambia -- APPENDIX -- I. Letter of Intent -- Attachment I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies -- Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding -- CONTENTS -- RELATIONS WITH THE FUND -- JOINT BANK-FUND WORK PROGRAM -- STATISTICAL ISSUES.

Tez (yüksek lisans) - Anadolu Üniversitesi ; Anadolu Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Anabilim Dalı ; Kayıt no: 481848 ; İç borçlanma birçok gelişmekte olan ülke için açık finansman kaynağı olmuştur. Kanıtlar, iç borçların yerel para birimi cinsinden oluşması nedeniyle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin para birimi riskini ortaya koymaktadır. Bununla birlikte, iç borçlanma dış borçlardan daha yüksek faiz oranlarına sahiptir. Ayrıca, aşırı iç borçlanma, özel kredi ve yatırımın kalabalığına düşebilir. Bu bağlamda ana araştırma sorularımızı cevaplamaya çalışıyoruz. İlk olarak, iç borç Gambiya'da özel yatırım üzerinde olumsuz bir etki yaratıyor mu? İkincisi, faiz oranı, özel yatırımlar üzerinde kalabalık bir etkiye sahip mi? Bu araştırma sorularını ampirik bir şekilde cevaplamak için, neoklasik yatırım fonksiyonuna dayanan bir yatırım modeli geliştirdik ve 1980-2013 yılları arasındaki yıllık zaman serisi verilerini değerlendirdik. Bağımlı değişken, özel yatırım ve açıklayıcı değişkenler arasındaki bağları incelemek için, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeli kullandı. Sınırların test sonucuna dayanarak, değişkenlerimiz arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğuna dair kanıtlar vardı. Dahası, iç borç stokunun kısa vadede özel yatırımlar üzerinde olumsuz etkisi olduğu tespit edildi. Öte yandan, reel faiz oranları uzun vadede özel yatırımlar üzerinde kalabalık bir etkiye sahipken kısa vadede olumlu bir etki yarattı. Bu çalışma, iç borçlanmanın seviyesini optimum veya sürdürülebilir seviyelere çekebilmek için sürdürülebilir mali ve para politikaları oluşturma konusundaki karar vericiler için bir rehber olacaktır. Ayrıca, herhangi bir ülkenin ekonomik büyümesinde ve kalkınmasında kilit bir sütun olan özel sektörün etkinleştirilmesi için araçlar sağlayacaktır.