Suchergebnisse

Empire and Domestic Economy. Terence N. D'Altroy. Christine A. Hastorf. and associates. New York: Kluwer Academic/ Plenum Publishers, 2001. 375 pp.

External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects ofemerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of externalmacro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VARconsisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for smallopen economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolboxcan be used for "nowcasting" the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regularupdates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhancethe accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that externalshocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.

Does the state of the domestic economy change the size of the effect of audience costs? As public opinion research has shown, citizens assess the performance of their leaders based not only on foreign policy, but also on the domestic economy. Thus, if leaders are subject to audience costs, they should be even less able to afford failure in an international crisis when the economy is performing badly than when the economy is doing well. As a result, such leaders should be even more able to make their threats credible and, therefore, are more likely to be successful in coercive diplomacy. This novel prediction finds no empirical support in a replication study using Moon and Souva (2016). I discuss possible reasons for this result and avenues for further research.

Today, Ireland is host to 1,033 multinational corporations. They directly employ 152,785 and account for 70 per cent or €122.5bn of exports. It's a story that has its roots in the 1940s.